CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“US Central Command announces at least one US strike on a target on Iranian land territory carried out between 2026-11-04 and 2026-12-31.”
This claim comes from Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.40 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 40 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 4 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.40Locked probability
2027-01-04Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers"
Window as statedbetween 2026-11-04 and 2026-12-31
How it will be settledCENTCOM operational press releases: YES if a Central Command release published by 2027-01-04 states that US forces struck a target on Iranian land territory on a date within the window; strikes only on vessels, aircraft or targets outside Iranian land territory do not count.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyiran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.