CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.”
This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.10 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 10 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.10Locked probability
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C5
Window as stated2026-12-31
How it will be settledYES if a measure signed into law on or before 31 December 2026 was considered under reconciliation procedures and provides at least $50,000,000,000 in new budget authority to the Department of Defense as stated in the enrolled text or in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for that measure. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C5
Record classbrier native
Claim familyus-defense-reconciliation-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.