CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“EIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11 below 280.0 million barrels.”
This claim comes from Rise of North American Energy Dominance, published on 29 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 29 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.45 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 45 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 16 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.45Locked probability
2026-12-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Rise of North American Energy Dominance"
Window as statedEIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11 below 280.0 million barrels.
How it will be settledEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Yes if weekly SPR crude oil stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11, as first published, are less than 280,000 thousand barrels; otherwise No.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyrise-of-north-american-energy-dominance; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-29, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.