INTELLIGENCE · THE LOG

Everything the firm published, locked, resolved, corrected and refreshed, in order.

Aegean Intelligence Group keeps a public record: reports, the claims they make, the data series its Dashboard watches, and the datasets it publishes. Every dated event in that record is listed here, newest first, one line each: a report joining the register, a claim locked or settled, a correction issued, a dataset rebuilt, an indicator crossing its threshold, a feed going down or coming back. Bad news is included, because a log that omits it is not a log.

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01 · THE STREAM

2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-001Panama's Second DroughtSupply Chain & LogisticsPanama's Second Drought joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
2026-09-11RIB publishedAIG-RIB-26-001Sixty Votes, One Honest UnknownEconomic & Financial MarketsSixty Votes, One Honest Unknown joined the Rapid Intel Brief archive and the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-004Forty-Seven Days to November 10Mining & ManufacturingForty-Seven Days to November 10 joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-006Three Percent on PaperPolitical Risk & GovernanceThree Percent on Paper joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-005After the DumaPolitical Risk & GovernanceAfter the Duma joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-ECO-26-002The First Warsh Hike?Economic & Financial MarketsThe First Warsh Hike? joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-ECO-26-001Hiking Into a Supply ShockEconomic & Financial MarketsHiking Into a Supply Shock joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-008The Lead Agency RuleDefense & SecurityThe Lead Agency Rule joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-284The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at range 45 to 48 feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft: The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-283The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.20: The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-282A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.55: A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-281The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 3.6 to 4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027: The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-280At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-279The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 3.8 to 4.4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026: The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-278The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.40: The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-277The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.75: The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-276The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.55: The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-275At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.20: At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-274The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.78: The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-273The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.68: The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-272The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.70: The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-271DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.38: DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-270The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.35: The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-269September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.38: September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-268August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.62: August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-267The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.15: The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-266The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.12: The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-265Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.55: Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-264The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.80: The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its…
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-263MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.92: MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No.
2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-262MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.25: MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and…
2026-09-11Dataset rebuiltPKG-ofac-deltaOFAC SDN delta seriesPolitical Risk & GovernanceOFAC SDN delta series was rebuilt: 4 rows, version 2026-09-11.
2026-09-11Dataset rebuiltPKG-maritime-chokepointsMaritime chokepoint transitsSupply Chain & LogisticsMaritime chokepoint transits was rebuilt: 22,400 rows, version 2026-09-11.
2026-09-11Dataset rebuiltPKG-macro-and-curveMacro, curve and market historyEconomic & Financial MarketsMacro, curve and market history was rebuilt: 24,938 rows, version 2026-09-11.
2026-09-11Dataset rebuiltPKG-claims-ledgerThe public claim ledgerThe public claim ledger was rebuilt: 60 rows, version 2026-09-11.
2026-09-10BRIER releaseBRIERNative score and integrity recordNative score and integrity record: The headline score now includes only BRIER-native claims locked no later than publication. Legacy prospective and retrospective entries remain public on separate tracks. The instrument now publishes ledger and claim fingerprints, content-addressed snapshots, selection counts, learning roles and conservative claim families under Record integrity. Affects scoring.
2026-09-10Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-007Feedstock Before FirepowerDefense & SecurityFeedstock Before Firepower joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
2026-09-10Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-006The Rearmament LedgerDefense & SecurityThe Rearmament Ledger joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-261A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.12: A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-260Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code…Defense & SecurityLocked at range 5 to 8.5 United States dollars, billions, nominal, contract obligations: Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-259The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.15: The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-258The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.18: The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-257Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.60: Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-256Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.10: Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-255The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.40: The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-254United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.50: United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-253A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.10: A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the…
2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-252The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.08: The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9…
2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-11Active high-intensity conflict zonesPolitical Risk & GovernanceEWI#11 Active high-intensity conflict zones: RED to GRAY (reads No live source against No new zone escalation).
2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-10Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GRAY to GREEN (reads 4 designations against Baseline tempo).
2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-09Global conflict event density (7-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#9 Global conflict event density (7-day): GREEN to GRAY (reads No live source against Within 1σ of trailing mean).
2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $101.72 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-03Strait of Hormuz transit volumeSupply Chain & LogisticsEWI#3 Strait of Hormuz transit volume: AMBER to RED (reads 4% of baseline against >90% of baseline).
2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIERScorecard reader openerScorecard reader opener: The Scorecard now opens by defining a claim, the probability, the four statuses and the Brier score for a reader who has never met the firm, before the first figure appears. Does not affect scoring.
2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 1: the registry and the PortalEra 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal: The Intelligence Portal front, the registry of every report, claim, series, dataset and desk, the header band on every object page, and site search. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 2: series pagesEra 4, Phase 2: series pages: One page per series the Dashboard watches, 44 today, with its chart, its source and tier, its package and citation line, and the claims that resolve against it. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the LogEra 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log: One page per public claim, and the Log of every dated event on the record as a page, an RSS feed and a JSON file. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portalEra 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal: BRIER documented as a system: the instrument panel drawn from the same ledger as the Scorecard, how it works, and this changelog. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERForward-claim standard, first applicationForward-claim standard, first application: The forward-claim standard was written into Methodology chapter 08 and applied to the register: three tests for a claim to lock, wording and resolution rules, the void condition, and the band-to-probability table (HIGH 0.85, MODERATE 0.65, LOW 0.50 as first set). 37 claims locked from 19 dated publications. Affects scoring.
2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERLOW band aligned to 0.55LOW band aligned to 0.55: The LOW band moved from 0.50 to 0.55 to match the default the firm's calibration engine has run on since June 2026. No locked claim carried a LOW band, so no score changed. Affects scoring.
2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERContested stateContested state: A claim whose outcome is contested between sources of equal standing stays open with the contest written into its note, for the founders to rule on; until then it adds nothing to the score. First applied to CLM-2026-157. Affects scoring.
2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERForward benchmark on the ledgerForward benchmark on the ledger: The seven-item forward benchmark locked on 9 July 2026 entered the public ledger under its own page, with publication and entry dates both 9 July because it was locked contemporaneously. Two quantity items carry locked ranges and sit outside the Brier rule. Does not affect scoring.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-244Baseline is the most probable path.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable path.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-236Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-234Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.85: Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-227The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-220The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-213The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-208Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.85: Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-205The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-202The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-200The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-191The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-187broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-178Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-166Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-157The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-148Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-137Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-133We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-130The attribution gap is durable.Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.85: The attribution gap is durable.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-104Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-083The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-081Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-079Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-078The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-068The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-066A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-064The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-063The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-053Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-040Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-031Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-030Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-024The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-022Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-015Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.65: Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-013During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties…
2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-004Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.
2026-08-20Claim resolvedCLM-2026-213The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes…Defense & SecurityResolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026.
2026-08-20Claim resolvedCLM-2026-187broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.Defense & SecurityResolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight.
2026-08-06Correction issuedThe Last Move Is Not YoursNine correction items applied to a brief withdrawn before publication. (AIG-DEF-26-005, unpublished; the entry is on the Methodology page.)
2026-08-03Correction issuedAIG-MUN-26-001The September LetterEconomic & Financial MarketsKey Judgment 3 rested on a single news source and stated the payment rule wrongly.
2026-08-03Report revisedAIG-MUN-26-001The September LetterEconomic & Financial MarketsThe September Letter was reissued with a dated revision noted on the page.
2026-07-30Report publishedAIG-MUN-26-001The September LetterEconomic & Financial MarketsThe September Letter joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
2026-07-16Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-004The Field Before the RFPPolitical Risk & GovernanceThe Field Before the RFP joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
2026-07-14Claim resolvedCLM-2026-083The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a…Defense & SecurityResolved FALSE: A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings.
2026-07-14Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-004The Footprint Before the ThreatDefense & SecurityThe Footprint Before the Threat joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
2026-07-09Report publishedAIG-FWD-26-001The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 joined the register.
2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-251Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.60: Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).
2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-250US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 3 to 5 percent YoY: US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).
2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-249EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 62 to 105 USD/bbl: EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.
2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-248No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.96: No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through…
2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-247A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.25: A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.
2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-246The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.15: The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk…
2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-245The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.25: The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent…
2026-07-08Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-003The Rare-Earth MidstreamMining & ManufacturingThe Rare-Earth Midstream joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
2026-06-30Claim openedCLM-2026-157The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and…Defense & SecurityThe window closed without a settling public source; the claim is open and adds nothing to the score. Held open as contested; the founders rule on it.
2026-06-19Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-003Who Owns the Risk?Political Risk & GovernanceWho Owns the Risk? joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
2026-06-19Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-003The Authority GapDefense & SecurityThe Authority Gap joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
2026-06-19Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-002The Protection PremiumDefense & SecurityThe Protection Premium joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
2026-06-16Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-002Venezuela After MaduroPolitical Risk & GovernanceVenezuela After Maduro joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-002The Critical Mineral Export Control StackMining & ManufacturingThe Critical Mineral Export Control Stack joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-MAR-26-002The Attribution GapSupply Chain & LogisticsThe Attribution Gap joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-001Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0Political Risk & GovernanceResource Nationalism Wave 3.0 joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-001The Western Munitions BottleneckDefense & SecurityThe Western Munitions Bottleneck joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-002The Tokenised Treasury MigrationEconomic & Financial MarketsThe Tokenised Treasury Migration joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-001Stablecoin Treasury LinkageEconomic & Financial MarketsStablecoin Treasury Linkage joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
2026-06-01Report publishedAIG-MAR-26-001The Re-Priced CorridorSupply Chain & LogisticsThe Re-Priced Corridor joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-001Critical Minerals Under PressureMining & ManufacturingCritical Minerals Under Pressure joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-INS-26-003The Ground Underneath the MapInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskThe Ground Underneath the Map joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-INS-26-002The Uninsurable FrontierInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskThe Uninsurable Frontier joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-INS-26-001When the Models Met RealityInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskWhen the Models Met Reality joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.

Everything the firm published, locked, resolved, corrected and refreshed, in order.

133 events on the record.