CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War Inspector General or Government Accountability Office product, issued on or before 31 December 2026, states a 155mm load, assemble and pack rate of 63,000 rounds per month or more for any month up to and including November 2026.”
This claim comes from Feedstock Before Firepower, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.12 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 12 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.12Locked probability
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0017
Window as stated2026-12-31
How it will be settledTRUE only if a document or statement in one of the named classes, published on or before 31 December 2026, states a United States 155mm load, assemble and pack rate, or an all-up-round production rate, of 63,000 rounds per month or more for a named month falling on or before 30 November 2026. The figure must be a stated actual or achieved rate. A planned rate, a projected rate, a milestone, a goal, a capacity figure, a design capacity, a contractor-stated capacity, or a rate expressed for a month after November 2026 does NOT resolve it TRUE. A metal-parts rate does not resolve it, because the claim is on the load, assemble and pack stage; where a document reports both, the load, assemble and pack figure governs. A statement by a named official reported by any outlet resolves it, because the resolving act is the public official statement. Absent such a statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE.
Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0017
Record classbrier native
Claim familyus-155mm-production-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.