$700,000 a Day
The Hormuz tanker bubble, the price of the strait, and the asymmetric payoff of a corridor deal
The freight market is priced for a war that continues and is not priced for a deal that arrives, and the June 2026 episode has already measured the size of the repricing.
2 calls from this report, among 31 in Supply Chain & Logistics.
Each line is one call in the domain, from the day it was written to the day it resolves. This report's calls are lit; point at any line to read it.
- CLM-2026-287The Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China route, as published in the Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report dated 9 October 2026, will be $690,000 per day, within an interval of $320,000 to $1,020,000 per day.a range · Did not come true · 10 Oct
- CLM-2026-288Conditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly announcing an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz on or before 15 November 2026, the first Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published on or after the fourteenth day following that announcement will be at least 25 percent below the last Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published before the announcement date.85% · resolves in 48 d
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-287 | The Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China route, as published in the Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report dated 9 October 2026, will be $690,000 per day, within an interval of $320,000 to $1,020,000 per day. | 320000 to 1.02e+06 US dollars per day, round-trip time charter equivalent for the standard Baltic VLCC (central 690000) | 2026-09-14 | 2026-10-09 | Resolved | FALSE TD3C (270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China) climbed 115 points to WS1,318.75, which gives a daily round-trip TCE of $1,412,594 for the standard Baltic VLCC2026-10-10 |
| CLM-2026-288 | Conditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly announcing an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz on or before 15 November 2026, the first Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published on or after the fourteenth day following that announcement will be at least 25 percent below the last Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published before the announcement date. | 0.85 | 2026-09-14 | 2026-12-15 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
The freight market is priced for a war that continues and is not priced for a deal that arrives, and the June 2026 episode has already measured the size of the repricing.
The complete source registry, limits, methodology and binding forecast definitions are preserved in the downloadable report. Each forecast is locked before publication to a named public resolution source.
The evidence tiers, confidence bands, forward-claim rule and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.