CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“Flavio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.”
This claim comes from Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real, published on 9 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 49.5 to 54.5 percent with a central estimate of 52; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 6 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
49.5 to 54.5 percent (central 52)Locked range
2026-11-06Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real"
Window as statedthe runoff of 25 October 2026, as reported up to and including 6 November 2026
How it will be settledReuters: the share of valid votes won by Flavio Bolsonaro in the runoff, in percent of valid votes, as reported by Reuters from the Superior Electoral Court's count with all polling stations counted, to one decimal place.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familybrazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-09, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.