CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“Conditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly announcing an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz on or before 15 November 2026, the first Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published on or after the fourteenth day following that announcement will be at least 25 percent below the last Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published before the announcement date.”
This claim comes from $700,000 a Day, published on 14 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 15 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2026-12-15Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-SCL-26-003, forward item SCL4-C2; engine record BRIER-FWD-0044
Window as stated2026-12-15
How it will be settledStep 1, the trigger. The trigger is met on the first calendar date on or before 15 November 2026 on which both conditions below hold. Condition A, the United States leg: an official statement attributable to the Government of the United States (the President, the White House, the Department of State, or US Central Command) announcing that an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz has been reached, read at whitehouse.gov, state.gov or centcom.mil. Condition B, the Iranian leg: an official statement attributable to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran (head of state or government, the foreign ministry, or an equivalent official channel) announcing that the same agreement has been reached, evidenced by direct reporting of that statement in Reuters or the Associated Press. No Iranian state channel is on AEIG's source register, so the Iranian leg resolves on allowlisted wire reporting of the official statement and not on the Iranian channel itself; reporting that describes an unannounced or unconfirmed agreement does not satisfy Condition B. Announcements by one government alone, by intermediaries, or by non-governmental parties do not meet the trigger. Call that date T. Step 2, the two prints. Take P0, the TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent in the last Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report published strictly before T. Take P1, the TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent in the first Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report published on or after T plus 14 days. Both figures must be the Baltic Exchange's own assessment for route TD3C, defined by the Baltic Exchange as 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China; figures from The Signal Group, Alibra Shipping or any other publisher do not resolve this claim. The reading path and the unreadability fallback are those stated in SCL4-C1. Step 3, the test. Score a HIT if P1 is less than or equal to 0.75 multiplied by P0. Score a MISS if P1 is greater than 0.75 multiplied by P0. Step 4, no trigger. If no announcement meeting Step 1 occurs on or before 15 November 2026, the claim resolves VOID: it is recorded in the register as void with the reason 'condition not met, no qualifying announcement by 2026-11-15' and is counted neither as a hit nor as a miss, and no Brier contribution is recorded. Step 5, edge cases. If the Baltic publishes no TD3C round-trip TCE line in the report identified at Step 2, use the next report after it that does, and record the substitution. If T falls on a Friday, the report published that same day counts as P1 only if its assessment date is on or after T plus 14 days; otherwise it is treated as published before T for the purpose of P0. The stated probability of 0.85 is a conditional probability given that the Step 1 trigger is met, not an unconditional probability of the compound event.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-SCL-26-003; immutable engine record BRIER-FWD-0044
Record classbrier native
Claim family700000-a-day; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.