CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“In November 2026 the CPI-U all items 12-month change exceeds the CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change by at least 0.8 percentage point.”
This claim comes from US Prices and Wages After the First Hike, published on 10 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 11 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-12-11Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "US Prices and Wages After the First Hike"
Window as statedup to and including 11 December 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Labor Statistics: YES if, in the BLS CPI news release for November 2026, the all items index 12-month change, not seasonally adjusted, minus the all items less food and energy index 12-month change, not seasonally adjusted, is at or above 0.8 percentage point, both as first published, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyus-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.