CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“The Defense Security Cooperation Agency posts a major arms sale notification for Taiwan dated from 10 October to 15 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January, published on 14 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 16 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked14 Oct
Resolves by16 Dec
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
From the reportSummit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January14 October 2026 · AIG-GOV-26-011Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-416The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a USTR notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the Section 301 actions on China-linked vessels and cargo handling equipment, whether or not with retroactive effect.75% · resolves in 35 d
- CLM-2026-417President Trump travels to Shenzhen during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and meets Xi Jinping or appears at the meeting there.75% · resolves in 45 d
- CLM-2026-418Xi Jinping attends the G20 leaders' summit in Miami in person.55% · resolves in 63 d
- CLM-2026-419The Federal Register publishes, on or before 12 January 2027, a presidential document or USTR notice that extends any US truce measure toward China beyond 10 January 2027.55% · resolves in 88 d
- CLM-2026-420The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities, whether or not with retroactive effect.70% · resolves in 35 d
- CLM-2026-422The Federal Register publishes, on or before 9 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities.35% · resolves in 25 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2026-12-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January"
Window as statedfrom 10 October 2026 up to and including 15 December 2026
How it will be settledDSCA major arms sales notifications: YES if the DSCA major arms sales page lists a notification to Congress of a proposed sale to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States dated from 10 October 2026 to 15 December 2026 inclusive; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familysummit-season-apec-shenzhen-g20-miami-and-the-truce-to-10; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.