CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The next European Commission Carbon Market Report, or any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026, states that shipping companies surrendered allowances for less than 99% of the surrendering requirements for the 2025 compliance cycle.”
This claim comes from 70% and Counting, published on 14 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.25 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 25 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.25Locked probability
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-SCL-26-002, forward item SCL3-C2; engine record BRIER-FWD-0042
Window as stated2026-12-31
How it will be settledHIT if a European Commission or European Environment Agency publication dated on or before 31 December 2026 states, for the 2025 compliance cycle (that is, verified 2025 emissions surrendered by the 30 September 2026 deadline at the 70% coefficient), a maritime surrender figure expressed as a share of surrendering requirements or of allowances due that is below 99%. MISS if such a publication states a figure of 99% or above, including the form used for the 2024 cycle, more than 99%. UNRESOLVED if no Commission or Agency publication dated on or before 31 December 2026 states any such figure. The measure is a share of allowances or of surrendering requirements, not a share, count or percentage of shipping companies; a statement about the number of non-compliant operators does not resolve this claim in either direction. Trade press, consultancies, industry associations and third-party aggregations of the EU Transaction Log do not resolve it; the publisher must be the Commission or the Agency. The reading path is the Carbon Market Report series index on climate.ec.europa.eu, which the cell used on 9 September 2026 to retrieve COM(2025) 735. If that index is unreadable on the resolution date, the claim is scored on the Official Journal or EUR-Lex COM-document record of the same report; if no Commission or Agency publication carrying such a figure can be read by 31 January 2027, the claim is recorded UNRESOLVED and is not scored against any non-Commission restatement.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-SCL-26-002; immutable engine record BRIER-FWD-0042
Record classbrier native
Claim familyseventy-percent-and-counting; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.