CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The cumulative number of merchant vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.”
This claim comes from Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 150 to 225 vessels with a central estimate of 180; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 2 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
150 to 225 vessels (central 180)Locked range
2026-12-02Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers"
Window as statedon or before 2026-12-01
How it will be settledCENTCOM operational press releases: the value is the latest cumulative redirected-vessel figure in a Central Command release published on or before 2026-12-01; if no such figure is published between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-01, the claim is void.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familyiran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.