Sixty Votes, One Honest Unknown
A Senate cloture test with a named threshold, clock, and public resolution source
The official record is precise about procedure and silent about who will supply the votes. The Congressional Record and Senate Calendar set a 2:15 p.m. ET vote on 15 September on cloture for the motion to proceed to Calendar No. 423, H.R. 3633. Rule XXII requires three-fifths of senators duly chosen and sworn, ordinarily 60 when all seats are filled. Cloture would limit debate on the motion; it would not enact the bill. [1-3,6] The House sent its version to the Senate in 2025, and the Senate rep
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-282 | A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026. | 0.55 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-01 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
The official record is precise about procedure and silent about who will supply the votes. The Congressional Record and Senate Calendar set a 2:15 p.m. ET vote on 15 September on cloture for the motion to proceed to Calendar No. 423, H.R. 3633. Rule XXII requires three-fifths of senators duly chosen and sworn, ordinarily 60 when all seats are filled. Cloture would limit debate on the motion; it would not enact the bill. [1-3,6] The House sent its version to the Senate in 2025, and the Senate reported an amended vehicle in June 2026. [4-5] No cited official source provides an attributable whip count, so Aegean does not name the senators who will supply or withhold the threshold. Candidate judgment: cloture receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September. Proposed probability: 0.55, Moderate Confidence. Rationale: leadership filed cloture and secured a vote, but the approved sources contain no vote commitments. Resolution: the Congressional Record roll call. The judgment remains proposed and unlocked.
Open-source intelligence current through 11 September 2026. The publication carries a 6-entry source registry, explicit confidence tags, limitations, and deterministic resolution rules for its forward claims.
The source tiers, estimative language, forward-claim rule, scoring, and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.