CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The BLS producer price index for switchgear, switchboard and industrial controls equipment (series WPU1175, not seasonally adjusted) for September 2026, as first published, is 430.247 or higher.”
This claim comes from Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing, published on 8 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.72 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 72 in 100. It resolves by 30 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.72Locked probability
2026-10-30Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing"
Window as statedfor the reference month of September 2026, as first published up to and including 30 October 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the first published September 2026 value of series WPU1175 is 430.247 or higher, as first published, whatever the method, NO if it is lower, and void if BLS has published no September 2026 value by 2026-10-30.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familygrid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.