CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The BLS producer price index for transformers and power regulators (series WPU1174, not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as first published.”
This claim comes from Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing, published on 8 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 432 to 452 index points with a central estimate of 438; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 13 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
432 to 452 index points (central 438)Locked range
2026-11-13Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing"
Window as statedfor the reference month of October 2026, as first published up to and including 13 November 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Labor Statistics: the outcome is the first published October 2026 value of series WPU1174, as first published, whatever the method, scored against the point and the interval, and void if BLS has published no October 2026 value by 2026-11-13.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familygrid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.