CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“The Brazilian real trades stronger than 5.10 reais per US dollar on 30 October 2026, the first full trading week after the runoff.”
This claim comes from Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real, published on 9 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 6 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-11-06Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real"
Window as statedthe trading day of 30 October 2026
How it will be settledFederal Reserve Economic Data: YES if the DEXBZUS series value for 2026-10-30 is below 5.10 reais per US dollar, as first published, whatever the method; if no value is published for that date, the last value published for a date on or before it counts.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familybrazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-09, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.