CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.”
This claim comes from The Authority Gap, published on 19 June 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 30 June 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
openStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-06-30Resolves by
Open means past its date and awaiting a public source. Its window has passed and it stays open until a dated public source settles it; resolving on inference is forbidden, and an open claim adds nothing to the score.
CONTESTEDKJ-5, MODERATE. The forward element is that the implementing rules due around June 2026 run late. Resolves true if the rules had not published by 30 June 2026. Held open as contested on 8 September 2026: the Justice and Homeland Security departments' interim final rule took effect on 1 July 2026 and published in the Federal Register on 6 July 2026, after the June window but inside the statute's 180-day deadline, so whether the rulebook was late turns on which clock the reader uses. The founders rule on it; until then it adds nothing to the score.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-5
Window as statedimplementing rules due around June 2026
How it will be settledFederal Register / DHS-DOJ publication of SAFER SKIES implementing rules and certification program; whether they published by end-June 2026
Where the probability came fromConfidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classlegacy retrospective
Claim familycounter-uas; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleaudit-only. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.