CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.”
This claim comes from The Authority Gap, published on 19 June 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 30 June 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written19 Jun
Locked on the record8 Sep
Did not come true16 Sep
Today
On the Defense & Security Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-06-30Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-09-16
0.4225Legacy-track contribution, excluded from headline score
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 16 September 2026 by a public source at www.federalregister.gov: The interim final rule is effective July 1, 2026.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-5
Window as statedimplementing rules due around June 2026
How it will be settledFederal Register / DHS-DOJ publication of SAFER SKIES implementing rules and certification program; whether they published by end-June 2026
Where the probability came fromConfidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classlegacy retrospective
Claim familycounter-uas; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleaudit-only. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.