CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.”
This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.10 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 10 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 9 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.10Locked probability
2026-10-09Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C2
Window as stated2026-10-09
How it will be settledYES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C2
Record classbrier native
Claim familysenate-floor-2026-autumn; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.