Aegean Intelligence Group
THE INTELLIGENCE PORTAL / CLAIMCLM-2026-253 · PUBLIC RECORD · 2026
ClaimCLM-2026-253Defense & SecurityCreated 2026-09-10Updated 2026-10-09www.dailypress.senate.govStandard: AEGEAN-OS v1.3
CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY

“A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.”

This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.10 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 10 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 9 October 2026, only against a dated public source.

This call, in time
Written and locked10 Sep
Did not come true9 Oct
Today
On the Defense & Security Horizon
From the reportThe Rearmament Ledger10 September 2026 · AIG-DEF-26-006
Its sibling calls
  1. CLM-2026-252The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.8% · Did not come true · 9 Oct
  2. CLM-2026-254United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.50% · Came true · 5 Oct
  3. CLM-2026-255The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.40% · resolves in 19 d
  4. CLM-2026-256Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.10% · resolves in 64 d
  5. CLM-2026-257Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.60% · resolves in 48 d
  6. CLM-2026-258The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.18% · resolves in 10 d

Status

Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.10Locked probability
2026-10-09Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-09
0.0100Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared

Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 9 October 2026 by a public source at www.dailypress.senate.gov: The Senate will return for business on Monday, November 9th at 3:00 p.m. At that time, following any Leader remarks, the Senate will resume consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R.2347 Survivor Justice Tax Prevention Act; the legislative vehicle for the permitting reform bill.

Extraction and settlement

Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C2
Window as stated2026-10-09
How it will be settledYES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C2
Record classbrier native
Claim familysenate-floor-2026-autumn; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard

The series it resolves against

The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.

Connected objects
Report (1)
Desk (1)
Series (0)

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.

Dataset (1)