CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.”
This claim comes from The First Warsh Hike?, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 16 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-09-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0036
Window as stated2026-09-16
How it will be settledCount the named individuals recorded in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 as voting against the monetary policy action. Resolve TRUE if that count is two or more, FALSE if it is one or zero. Direction of dissent is irrelevant: a dissent preferring a higher rate and a dissent preferring a lower rate each count as one. A recorded abstention, or a member absent and not voting, does not count as a dissent. A statement carrying no sentence naming anyone voting against gives a count of zero and resolves FALSE.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0036
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-first-warsh-hike; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.