{ "schema": "aeig-claims@2", "generated": "2026-09-11", "scoring": "Brier score over resolved BRIER-native probability claims only; legacy tracks and voids are excluded from the headline score and reported separately.", "summary": { "n": 0, "brier": null, "last_resolved_on": null, "locked_total": 77, "by_status": { "locked": 73, "resolved": 3, "open": 1 }, "by_desk": { "defense": { "locked": 20, "open": 1, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "infrastructure": { "locked": 5, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "manufacturing": { "locked": 13, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "markets": { "locked": 18, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "political-risk": { "locked": 10, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "supply-chain": { "locked": 7, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null } }, "bins": [ { "lo": 0.0, "hi": 0.1, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.1, "hi": 0.2, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.2, "hi": 0.3, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.3, "hi": 0.4, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.4, "hi": 0.5, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.7, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.8, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1.0, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null } ], "as_of": "2026-09-11", "score_scope": "brier-native resolved probability claims only", "tracks": { "brier-native": { "n": 0, "brier": null }, "legacy-prospective": { "n": 0, "brier": null }, "legacy-retrospective": { "n": 3, "brier": 0.2892 } }, "record_classes": { "legacy-prospective": 33, "legacy-retrospective": 4, "brier-native": 40 }, "claim_families": 42 }, "claims": [ { "id": "CLM-2026-004", "brief": "cat-models-002", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. The two-to-three-year stabilization clause of the same sentence is entered as its own claim. Resolves by the Baseline conditions the brief lists: no single industry-loss event of 60 billion dollars or more, controlled carrier exits, NFIP bridged.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path (baseline); two-to-three-year outcome (stabilization)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the twelve-month clause. The two-to-three-year clause (stabilization: multi-year NFIP reauthorization, expanded CA/FL backstops, FHFA GSE climate capital rules) would resolve 2028-05-26 to 2029-05-26.", "checkable": "Twelve-month check: absence of a $60B+ single-event industry loss, continued CA/FL carrier exits, NFIP bridge reauthorization, further property-cat softening (Aon/Howden/Gallagher Re renewals reports)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "cat-models-002", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-013", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2031-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, HIGH. Resolves against FEMA flood-map guidance and datum labels through the 2025 to 2031 window the brief names.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 8 (printed p.7), Section 03 Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "estimated five years post NAPGD2022 release; rationale cites 'the 2025 to 2031 window'", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the end of the 2025 to 2031 window named in the rationale.", "checkable": "FEMA flood-map update guidance and DFIRM datum labels; NGS / FEMA joint advisories on datum conversion", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-015", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 04 assessment, MODERATE, two consecutive sentences quoted so the referent is on the page. Resolves true if datum specification with conversion provisions is standard in parametric coastal-flood wordings by end-2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 9 (printed p.8), Section 04 Assessment (MODERATE)", "window_as_stated": "by 2027", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'this' = datum specification with formal conversion provisions in parametric policy language (preceding sentence). 'by 2027' ambiguous; end-2027 used.", "checkable": "Parametric policy forms and industry guidance (WTW, PwC, NAIC) showing datum-specification and conversion clauses as standard", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-022", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. Resolves by the Baseline conditions: NGS rollout completed by end-2026, no major landfall producing datum-related claims disputes, no FEMA or FHFA reference-frame guidance.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim sentence from the HIGH assessment block.", "checkable": "NGS rollout completion by end-2026; absence of a major landfall in a high-subsidence jurisdiction with datum-related claims disputes; no FEMA/FHFA reference-frame guidance", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-024", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief. The licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users all remain in place.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2026-11-30", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-4, MODERATE. The brief names the suspensions' expiry as roughly 27 November 2026; the claim resolves true if the licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion and the military-end-user prohibition are still in force at that date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.3, KJ-4 (landing page lists it as KJ-3)", "window_as_stated": "unstated", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers '8, 15' trimmed. Section 06 names the expiry as roughly 27 November 2026 but the judgment itself states no window.", "checkable": "MOFCOM announcements and trade-press reporting on whether the one-year suspensions lapse, are re-tightened, or are converted into durable rollback (suspension expiry cited elsewhere in the brief as roughly 27 November 2026).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-030", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05 assessment, MODERATE. A carried IEA projection the brief endorses at its own confidence.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 05 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "into the mid-2030s", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation marker '1' trimmed. This restates an IEA projection rather than an AEIG-originated forecast; the enclosing assessment block carries MODERATE confidence. 'Mid-2030s' resolved to 2035-12-31 as a convention.", "checkable": "IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook refining-share series through 2035.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-031", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05 assessment, MODERATE. Window is the section's stated 6 to 12 months, outer bound.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 05 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "6 to 12 Months (scenario horizon, Section 05 heading)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Window taken from the section heading 'Three Scenarios, 6 to 12 Months'; outer bound used.", "checkable": "IEA/CSIS refining and magnet-share data: China share of rare-earth processing remains a large majority through mid-2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-040", "brief": "uninsurable-003", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. Resolves against cat-bond issuance and outstanding-market data and the absence of a governance-review event through May 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path (baseline); two-to-three-year destination (stabilization)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the twelve-month clause; the two-to-three-year clause resolves 2028-05-26 to 2029-05-26.", "checkable": "Artemis cat-bond issuance and outstanding-market data; parametric premium growth reporting; sovereign-pool joint platform announcements", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "uninsurable-003", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-053", "brief": "hormuz-002", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.", "made_on": "2026-06-01", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Two quarters from the 1 June 2026 issue date. Resolves against published hull war-risk additional premium levels and the JWC Listed Areas status on 1 December 2026 compared with January 2026.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 13 (printed 12), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "a horizon shorter than two quarters", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Two quarters from the 1 June 2026 issue date. Same block adds: 'Even under Stabilization, the JWC designation, the LMA war-pricing precedent, and the PGSA institutional residue persist; under Deterioration they compound.'", "checkable": "Hull war-risk premium quotes (Lloyd's List, Howden Re, Platts) and JWC Listed Areas status through 1 December 2026 compared with the January 2026 baseline.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "hormuz-002", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-063", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action. Each regime is statutorily entrenched in a distinct legal system; the political consensus underwriting each spans more than one electoral cycle.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, MODERATE. Resolves true if MOFCOM licensing, the EU CRMA, the US BIS rules and the Indonesian ore-export bans are all still in force on 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers '14, 25, 13, 28' trimmed. KJ-7 appears in the PDF but not on the landing page's four-judgment summary.", "checkable": "Whether MOFCOM licensing, EU CRMA, US BIS FDPR/Entity List, and Indonesian ore-export bans all remain in force through June 2027 (MOFCOM, EUR-Lex, Federal Register, MoEMR).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-064", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with current EU dependency shares on China.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-3, MODERATE. Resolves true if the EU has not met its 40 percent processing benchmark and 65 percent single-source cap by end-2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-3", "window_as_stated": "by 2030 (benchmark date)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Lead-in 'The EU Critical Raw Materials Act is statutorily ambitious and operationally lagging.' and citation markers '25, 13, 33' trimmed. Phrased as a present trajectory judgment; the forward implication is that the 2030 benchmarks will be missed.", "checkable": "European Commission CRMA monitoring reports on EU processing share and single-country dependency versus the 40 percent and 65 percent benchmarks.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-066", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, MODERATE, on the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. Resolves true if the Commission opens a mid-term review or proposes an amendment before 1 January 2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 03 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "before 2028", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Refers to the EU CRMA (subject of the enclosing assessment). 'More likely than not' is a verbal band (>0.5), not a stated percentage, so stated_probability left null.", "checkable": "European Commission communication initiating a CRMA mid-term review or a legislative amendment proposal before 1 January 2028.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-068", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month horizon.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05, MODERATE. Resolves true if no downstreaming mandate is withdrawn in response to WTO action by 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.13, Section 05 body (section Assessment is Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Body-text sentence; the section's MODERATE assessment restates 'WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent' without the window, so the MODERATE tag is attributed.", "checkable": "WTO dispute records (DS592 status, Appellate Body function) and whether Indonesia or an imitator withdraws a downstreaming mandate in response to WTO action.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-078", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a close second. Each carries a multi-year qualified-supplier path no supplemental appropriation can shortcut inside 24 months.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2028-06-03", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-2, HIGH. Resolves false if a second qualified nitrocellulose source or a third qualified tactical solid-rocket-motor supplier is delivering at scale before June 2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-2", "window_as_stated": "inside 24 months", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 9, 7, 10 dropped. 24 months from the 3 June 2026 issue date.", "checkable": "Army / JPEO Armaments and Ammunition announcements of a second qualified North American nitrocellulose source, or a third qualified tactical SRM supplier delivering at scale, before June 2028.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-079", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2030-03-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-3, HIGH. The SM-6 clause of the same judgment is kept on file separately because SM-6 inventory levels are not public. Resolves false if FY2027-lot Tomahawk deliveries are publicly recorded before March 2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-3; repeated in Section 05 Assessment (HIGH) on PDF page 11", "window_as_stated": "March 2030 (Tomahawk); early 2029 (SM-6)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 8, 6 dropped. Tomahawk delivery date is the outer bound used; a first delivery before March 2030 would falsify.", "checkable": "Navy FY2027 budget justification books and Raytheon / NAVSEA delivery announcements for FY2027-lot Tomahawks; SM-6 inventory levels are not public, so the SM-6 half is only indirectly checkable via CSIS estimates.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-081", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year. Today's appropriations do not fix today's magazine.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, HIGH. Resolves against delivery data in budget justification books and contractor disclosures for the 2024 and 2025 multiyear and large-lot awards.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 4 (printed 3), Key Judgments, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "2026 to 2028", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 6, 14, 8 dropped. Leading sentence 'Multi-year and large-lot procurement are the right policy mechanisms but carry a built-in lag' trimmed.", "checkable": "Delivery data in DoD budget justification books and contractor disclosures for the August 2025 JASSM/LRASM large-lot, AMRAAM, and PAC-3 MSE multiyear awards.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-083", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most visible public signal of the underlying NC and energetics pathology.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-07-14", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2026-07-14/army-artillery-shell-shortfall-22262070.html", "line": "A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings." }, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, HIGH. Mid-2026 read as 30 June 2026. Carries the brief's own caveat, barring a feedstock disruption. The shortfall the report names is projectile metal-part production and a failed contractor plant, not a feedstock disruption, so the brief's caveat does not apply.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 9 (printed 8), Section 03 Walk-Through, Assessment block (HIGH CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "the mid-2026 revised timeline", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'Mid-2026' read as 30 June 2026; a July 2026 reading would also be defensible. Carries the caveat 'barring a feedstock disruption'. The Thesis lists a formal DoD 100,000/month declaration as a falsification condition.", "checkable": "US Army / JPEO A&A statements of the all-US-facility 155mm monthly production rate; Defense News, Defense One, National Defense (NDIA) reporting.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-104", "brief": "resource-nationalism", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows. None imply it disappears.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. The scoreable element is that no Wave 3 settlement is disclosed at or near full filed claim value within the 12-month horizon.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.14, Section 07 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "12 Months (Section 07 heading)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'The discount' refers to the discount to filed claim value that firms internalise; the scoreable element is 'None imply it disappears'.", "checkable": "Whether any Wave 3 settlement over the window is disclosed at or near full filed claim value (company filings, trade press).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "resource-nationalism", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-130", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The attribution gap is durable. Across five major incident clusters in four years, no Western investigation has produced a finalized public state-actor attribution, and the institutional and legal frameworks that would close the gap have not changed.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-1, HIGH. The window is the brief's own thesis line for the same judgment: the gap is durable across at least a 12-month horizon. Resolves false if any Western investigation issues a finalized public state-actor attribution by 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-1", "window_as_stated": "unstated in KJ-1; the Thesis on the same page states 'The gap is durable across at least a 12-month horizon'", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 9, 10, 11, 2 dropped. The 12-month window is taken from the Thesis sentence for the same judgment, not from KJ-1 itself; treat as stated by the brief but flagged.", "checkable": "Any finalized public state-actor attribution issued by a Western investigation (German Federal Prosecutor on Nord Stream, Finnish NBI on Eagle S / Balticconnector, Estonian or Swedish authorities) by 3 June 2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-133", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, MODERATE. The pattern is the Estlink-2 response described in the same judgment: board the vessel, prosecute the owner, recover damages, treat the sponsoring-state question separately.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 4 (printed 3), Key Judgments, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "over the next 12 months", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 11, 21, 14 dropped. 'This pattern' refers to the Estlink-2 / Eagle S response described in the first sentence of KJ-7: board the vessel, prosecute the owner, recover damages, treat the sponsoring-state question separately.", "checkable": "Western responses to subsea incidents through June 2027: vessel boardings and owner prosecutions (Finnish NBI, other coastal states) versus any finalized state-actor attribution.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-137", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not change on a 12-month horizon.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against published cable-ship fleet counts and chokepoint bandwidth shares in mid-2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 16 (printed 15), Section 07 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "a 12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "12 months from the 3 June 2026 issue date.", "checkable": "SubTel Forum and TeleGeography fleet counts (60-75 cable-capable vessels, roughly 10 firms) and chokepoint bandwidth shares (Egypt ~17%, Luzon ~30%) as of mid-2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-148", "brief": "venezuela-after-maduro", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.", "made_on": "2026-06-16", "resolves_by": "2026-12-13", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. 180 days from the 16 June 2026 issue date. Resolves by the Baseline conditions the brief itself lists: the February licences in force, Rodriguez acting with US recognition, no competitive election scheduled, production near 1.0 to 1.1 million barrels a day, no ICJ judgment.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 12 (printed 11), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "90 to 180 day", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "180 days from the 16 June 2026 issue date. 'Most probable' is a comparative ranking of scenarios, not a numeric probability, so stated_probability is null.", "checkable": "Whether the Baseline conditions on PDF page 11 held through mid-December 2026: February OFAC licenses in force, Rodriguez acting president with US recognition, no competitive election date, production 1.0-1.1 mb/d, no ICJ judgment.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "venezuela-after-maduro", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-157", "brief": "counter-uas", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "open", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-5, MODERATE. The forward element is that the implementing rules due around June 2026 run late. Resolves true if the rules had not published by 30 June 2026. Held open as contested on 8 September 2026: the Justice and Homeland Security departments' interim final rule took effect on 1 July 2026 and published in the Federal Register on 6 July 2026, after the June window but inside the statute's 180-day deadline, so whether the rulebook was late turns on which clock the reader uses. The founders rule on it; until then it adds nothing to the score.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-5", "window_as_stated": "implementing rules due around June 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 24, 25 removed. Forward element is the rule due-date and the judgment that the rulebook is late; the statutory description is present-tense. The website page renumbers this as KJ-3.", "checkable": "Federal Register / DHS-DOJ publication of SAFER SKIES implementing rules and certification program; whether they published by end-June 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "counter-uas", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-166", "brief": "counter-uas", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves by the status of the SAFER SKIES rules, the count of certified agencies, and the absence of a casualty or major-outage drone incident on US soil by June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim including PDF hyphenation artifact 'lower- probability'. This is the analyst's ranking of scenarios (Baseline most probable), not a construction-confidence tag, so scenario flag is false. No numeric probability.", "checkable": "By June 2027: status of SAFER SKIES final rules (slipped/interim vs final), count of certified state/local agencies, and whether a weaponized-drone incident with casualties or major outage occurred on US soil", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "counter-uas", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-178", "brief": "integrated-risk", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Window is the section's stated twelve months. Resolves against convergence prevalence and board oversight surveys through June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "Three Scenarios, Twelve Months (section header)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim. Window taken from the Section 06 header 'Three Scenarios, Twelve Months'; this assessment sentence itself does not repeat 'twelve-month'. Analyst ranking, not construction confidence.", "checkable": "By June 2027: convergence prevalence still near ~24 percent, S&P 500 audit-committee cyber oversight still ~79 percent, no high-profile seam incident with named individual accountability", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "integrated-risk", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-187", "brief": "principal-protection", "desk": "defense", "statement": "broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "line": "A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight." }, "notes": "Section 03, under KJ-5, MODERATE. Resolves against the California Privacy Protection Agency's record of the broker compliance start date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.9 (footer 8), Section 03 body (covered by KJ-5)", "window_as_stated": "from August 1, 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 24, 25 removed; preceding clause about enrollment counts trimmed. Body text; MODERATE is the tag on KJ-5 and the Section 03 Assessment, which cover California's deletion platform. Largely a statement of statutory schedule rather than an analytic forecast.", "checkable": "California Privacy Protection Agency DROP notices confirming the August 1, 2026 broker-compliance start and 45-day cycle", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "principal-protection", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-191", "brief": "principal-protection", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. A line-break hyphen in the PDF was joined. Resolves against the 2027 proxy-season disclosure share and convergence prevalence surveys.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.14 (footer 13), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim including PDF hyphenation artifact 'twelve- month'. Analyst's scenario ranking, not a construction-confidence tag.", "checkable": "By June 2027: Equilar 2027 proxy-season disclosure share rising; ASIS or similar convergence prevalence still near one quarter; no publicly attributed data-source-to-attack chain", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "principal-protection", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-200", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the structural gap persisting on that measure regardless of how the mining picture evolves.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-6, MODERATE. Resolves against published non-Chinese refining share for 2035.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-6 (landing page lists it as KJ-4)", "window_as_stated": "2035", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Lead-in 'For an operator or investor, mine-offtake diversification is the wrong primary metric for rare-earth exposure.' and citation markers '1,2,17,18' trimmed.", "checkable": "S&P Global, IEA, McKinsey refining-share data for 2035: non-Chinese share still a small minority.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-202", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2029-07-08", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the reasons the flagship projects disclose for any delay through July 2029.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.7, Section 03 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "the next three years", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "None.", "checkable": "Whether flagship project delays through 2029 are attributed to construction/qualification rather than financing in company disclosures.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-205", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional capital is announced in that window.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 04 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the non-Chinese share of rare-earth refining and magnet output at end-2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.8, Section 04 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "2026 to 2028 horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "None.", "checkable": "Non-Chinese share of rare-earth refining and magnet production at end-2028 (S&P Global, IEA).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-208", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the buyer's position, and none closes the gap outright.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 06 assessment, HIGH. Resolves true if China still holds the majority of rare-earth refining and magnet output at end-2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.11, Section 06 Assessment (High Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "2026-to-2030 window", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "PDF wording quoted; markdown source has a longer variant of the same sentence.", "checkable": "China share of rare-earth refining and magnet output through 2030 remains the majority (S&P Global, IEA, USGS).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-213", "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.", "made_on": "2026-07-14", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "line": "A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026." }, "notes": "KJ-4, HIGH. The present-tense description of registry gaps in the same judgment is trimmed. Resolves against the California Privacy Protection Agency's record of the enforcement date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-4", "window_as_stated": "August 1, 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 2, 3, 4 removed. Website page renumbers this as KJ-3. The enforceability date is the forward element; the registry limits are present-tense.", "checkable": "CPPA confirmation that DROP broker-compliance obligations took effect August 1, 2026; state broker-registry counts (EFF/PRC analysis)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "principal-digital-exposure", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-220", "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving the footprint decisive.", "made_on": "2026-07-14", "resolves_by": "2027-07-14", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against DROP compliance data, the absence of a public data-source attribution for an attack, and the absence of a multi-state or federal deletion standard by July 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim from PDF (draft markdown wording differs slightly). Analyst ranking, not construction confidence.", "checkable": "By July 2027: CPPA DROP compliance/enforcement data showing partial deletion; no prosecution publicly naming a data source as targeting basis; no multi-state or federal deletion standard enacted", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "principal-digital-exposure", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-227", "brief": "capture-field-read", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.", "made_on": "2026-07-16", "resolves_by": "2027-07-16", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 06 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the Federal Register status of the FAR overhaul rules and FY2026 competition reporting by July 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12, Section 06 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "This is the section assessment, not a scenario construction confidence. Resolution requires mapping observed outcomes to the Baseline/Acceleration definitions (contract volume near $750B, FAR overhaul final rules issued, one-offer and retention patterns hold).", "checkable": "Federal Register final-rule issuance for the Revolutionary FAR Overhaul (Parts 1, 2, 4, 33, 39, 40, 53) and FY2026 DoD competition / one-offer reporting; GAO FY2026 bid protest annual report", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "capture-field-read", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-234", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-2, HIGH. The 60-day clause for later hearings is kept on file separately because its window depends on hearing dates the brief does not fix. Resolves against the Assessor's notice mailings and local reporting.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-2 (restated in Section 01, PDF p.6: 'Every 2026 appeal heard before 1 September receives that notice in the mail by mid to late September; appeals heard after 1 September receive one within 60 days of the hearing date.')", "window_as_stated": "mid to late September (2026)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Trimmed lead-in 'The calendar is published and therefore plannable. Formal scheduling closed 26 June, hearings are calendared into August,' and citation marker 1. The brief attributes the schedule to the Assessor; the claim is that it holds.", "checkable": "Davidson County Assessor of Property (padctn.org) formal-appeals page and local reporting on notice mailings", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-236", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-6, MODERATE. 90 days from the 30 July 2026 issue date. Resolves against local reporting on turnover and closures versus any rate relief or fund disbursement in the window; voided if the record cannot separate the two.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-6", "window_as_stated": "60 to 90 days", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Trimmed the supporting sentences and citation markers 10,11,12. Markdown phrasing is 'Over the next 60 to 90 days the fastest-moving adjustment channel'; PDF wording quoted. 90 days counted from the 2026-07-30 issue date.", "checkable": "Nashville local reporting (WSMV, FOX 17, Nashville Banner) on business closures and lease turnover versus any legacy-fund disbursements or rate action by 2026-10-28", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-244", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Baseline is the most probable path.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves by the Baseline conditions: notices land as published, forks fall in late October and November, relief criteria publish late.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.13, Section 06 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "Sixty to Ninety Days (the outlook horizon the assessment ranks)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Section assessment, not a scenario construction confidence. Resolves by checking whether the Baseline conditions (notices land as published, forks in late Oct/Nov, relief criteria late) held versus Deterioration or Relief.", "checkable": "Assessor notice mailings in mid to late September 2026; Board of Equalization agendas; State Board filing volume; timing of legacy fund criteria publication", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-245", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "probability", "statement": "The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-09-18", "p": 0.25, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Locked as a judgment call. June 2026 hold was unanimous at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 with inflation called elevated. Resolution source: federalreserve.gov FOMC statement of record (implementation note), 2026-09-17.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-01", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "federalreserve.gov FOMC statement of record (implementation note), 2026-09-17." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "fomc-2026-09", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-246", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "supply-chain", "kind": "probability", "statement": "The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.15, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Judgment call, conditioned on the US-Iran agreement item. Strait closed about 130 days at lock; strikes resumed 2026-07-08. Resolution source: UKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-02", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "UKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record." }, "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-hormuz-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-247", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "political-risk", "kind": "probability", "statement": "A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.25, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Anchored to the firm's reference class for escalating adversarial bargaining (episode-level settlement rate 0.67, credible interval 0.53 to 0.81), with an explicit 83-day window adjustment from a collapsed-talks starting state. Resolution source: whitehouse.gov and state.gov statements; AP or Reuters wire of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-03", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "whitehouse.gov and state.gov statements; AP or Reuters wire of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-hormuz-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-248", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "defense", "kind": "probability", "statement": "No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-15", "p": 0.96, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Anchored to the firm's reference class for two-party standoffs with a credible mutual threat (episode-level holds rate 0.59), converted to a 98-day window against historical quarterly initiation rates. Resolution source: DoD and INDOPACOM statements and USNI News; AP wire of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-04", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "DoD and INDOPACOM statements and USNI News; AP wire of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "taiwan-standoff-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-249", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "range", "statement": "EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-06", "p": null, "range": { "lo": 62.0, "central": 80.0, "hi": 105.0, "unit": "USD/bbl" }, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Quantity item, scored by interval coverage rather than the Brier rule. Brent was 78.55 dollars on 2026-07-08 with the Hormuz closure ongoing; the band is wide because the distribution was bimodal at lock. Resolution source: eia.gov, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily (RBRTE).", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-05", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "eia.gov, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily (RBRTE)." }, "series": [ "brent" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-hormuz-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-250", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "range", "statement": "US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-16", "p": null, "range": { "lo": 3.0, "central": 3.9, "hi": 5.0, "unit": "percent YoY" }, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Quantity item, scored by interval coverage. May 2026 headline was 4.2 percent with the oil shock in the headline; the central case assumes partial retracement holds. Resolution source: bls.gov CPI news release for September 2026.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-06", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "bls.gov CPI news release for September 2026." }, "series": [ "cpi" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-inflation-2026-09", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-251", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "political-risk", "kind": "probability", "statement": "Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "p": 0.6, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Locked at LOW confidence by design; 2026-specific polling was not reviewed at lock, stated plainly. The point of the forward benchmark is to be scored, not to be safe. Resolution source: apnews.com House race calls of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-07", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "apnews.com House race calls of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-midterms-2026", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-252", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.08, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C1", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Cloture on the motion to proceed to S. 4784 already failed 50 to 46 on 14 July 2026 and no re-filed motion is on the record. The Senate's published 2026 calendar puts it in session only from 14 September to 2 October before a state work period running 5 October to 6 November, so the entire opportunity is eighteen weekday session days in which twelve unfinished appropriations bills also compete for floor time. The firm locks this expecting NO and publishes it either way; the calendar, not the politics, is the binding constraint. Resolution rule: YES if a roll call vote on a motion to invoke cloture on any NDAA vehicle (S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended, or a successor) appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. A voice vote, a unanimous consent agreement, or a filed but unvoted cloture motion does not count. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C1", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm (roll call votes of the 119th Congress, 2nd session)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a roll call vote on a motion to invoke cloture on any NDAA vehicle (S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended, or a successor) appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. A voice vote, a unanimous consent agreement, or a filed but unvoted cloture motion does not count. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "senate-floor-2026-autumn", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-253", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.1, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C2", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The 30 calendar day review period under 22 U.S.C. 2776(b)(1) runs from the 4 September transmittals and closes about 4 October 2026; Saudi Arabia is not among the partners eligible for the 15 day period under 2776(b)(2). The Senate leaves for a state work period on 2 October, two days before the review closes, so a privileged resolution would have to be discharged and voted inside the September session weeks. The firm locks this expecting NO. Resolution rule: YES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C2", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm and https://www.congress.gov (joint resolutions of disapproval under 22 U.S.C. 2776)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "senate-floor-2026-autumn", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-254", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-05", "p": 0.5, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C3", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The 27 September 2024 United States and Iraq joint statement provides for coalition operations from an Iraqi platform continuing until September 2026, and Iraqi officials describe 30 September 2026 as the fixed and final date. No CENTCOM release between early August and 8 September 2026 mentions the withdrawal. The claim tests whether the American side marks the date publicly at all, which is the point on which the report's Erbil section rests, since the removal of Patriot and counter rocket, artillery and mortar cover is currently a press only claim. Resolution rule: YES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C3", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-05", "resolution_source": "https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/ and https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "coalition-iraq-2026-09", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-255", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "p": 0.4, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C4", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The Missile Defense Agency stated on making the first SHIELD tranche of 1,014 awardees in December 2025 that it would not begin awarding task orders until all awardees were finalised, and no task order has been located since. The twelve space based interceptor vendors completed Gate One in August 2026 and were said to move to prototype build under Gate Two, which normally requires new obligation. Against that, the fiscal year 2027 Golden Dome request is roughly 97 percent inside the reconciliation package and the continuing resolution carries no Golden Dome anomaly, so the question is whether prior year balances carry any new award at all. Resolution rule: YES if a daily contract announcement dated between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive names a Golden Dome, space based interceptor or SHIELD award or task order. A modification to an existing agreement counts only if the announcement identifies it as a new task order. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C4", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-16", "resolution_source": "https://www.war.gov/News/Contracts/ daily contract announcements", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a daily contract announcement dated between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive names a Golden Dome, space based interceptor or SHIELD award or task order. A modification to an existing agreement counts only if the announcement identifies it as a new task order. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "golden-dome-awards-2026-q4", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-256", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.1, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C5", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the claim that falsifies the report's thesis, and the firm states the bar's weakness alongside it: both chambers' budget resolutions carry $60 billion for defence against the $350 billion requested, so a measure at the resolution level clears $50 billion while funding barely a sixth of the ask. The mechanical bar is sequencing rather than appetite. No concurrent budget resolution has been adopted, so no reconciliation instructions exist and no privileged bill can move; the Senate has seventeen weekday session days between the 3 November election and the 11 December continuing resolution expiry, and CSIS reports Republicans planning a further reconciliation vehicle for after the midterms. Resolution rule: YES if a measure signed into law on or before 31 December 2026 was considered under reconciliation procedures and provides at least $50,000,000,000 in new budget authority to the Department of Defense as stated in the enrolled text or in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for that measure. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C5", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "https://www.congress.gov and https://www.govinfo.gov (public laws of the 119th Congress)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a measure signed into law on or before 31 December 2026 was considered under reconciliation procedures and provides at least $50,000,000,000 in new budget authority to the Department of Defense as stated in the enrolled text or in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for that measure. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-defense-reconciliation-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-257", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "p": 0.6, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C6", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This replaces the planning slate's Product Service Code 13xx threshold of $25 billion, which was unreachable on the series: full year 13xx obligations were $11.11 billion in fiscal 2024 and $10.83 billion in fiscal 2025. The 14xx series measures the war's actual procurement response. Fiscal 2026 obligations from October through June stood at $28.81 billion against $15.10 billion in the same period of fiscal 2025, and September alone carried 42 percent and 25 percent of the annual total in the two preceding years, so the threshold sits above a straight extrapolation and below an unchanged September share. Data is published with roughly a 90 day lag, which the 15 December read date accommodates. Resolution rule: YES if the sum of Department of Defense contract obligations for fiscal year 2026 under all Product Service Codes beginning 14 exceeds $38,000,000,000 when queried on 15 December 2026. The query is the same one the firm ran on 9 September 2026 and is recorded in chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_obligations.csv. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C6", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-15", "resolution_source": "https://api.usaspending.gov (spending by category, Product Service Code, awarding agency Department of Defense, contract award types A through D, fiscal year 2026)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if the sum of Department of Defense contract obligations for fiscal year 2026 under all Product Service Codes beginning 14 exceeds $38,000,000,000 when queried on 15 December 2026. The query is the same one the firm ran on 9 September 2026 and is recorded in chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_obligations.csv. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-missile-obligations-fy2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-258", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "p": 0.18, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C7", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The threshold is the planning slate's and is retained at the principal's direction; the probability carries the firm's own analysis, which points the other way. The annual base rate is high, at 103 approvals worth EUR 82.98 billion in calendar 2025 and 44 by 8 July 2026, but the 2026 count has not moved since 8 July and the Bundesministerium der Verteidigung's own planning document schedules only eight proposals inside this window. That plan has been wrong in both directions, having scheduled three for the 8 July sitting that approved sixteen and twelve for a February sitting that approved two. No Bundestag page publishes a running count, which is why the resolution rule names the ministry's press stream and states a tolerance. The firm expects this to resolve NO and publishes it because a scorecard that only carries comfortable claims is not a scorecard. Resolution rule: YES if the count of individual proposals reported as approved by the Haushaltsausschuss in BMVg press releases dated between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive is 20 or more, with a tolerance of plus or minus two proposals where the BMVg release and contemporaneous trade reporting disagree on a single sitting. Where the BMVg release states a count, that count governs. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C7", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-07", "resolution_source": "Bundesministerium der Verteidigung press releases indexed from https://www.bmvg.de/de/beschaffung-25-millionen-euro-vorlagen", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if the count of individual proposals reported as approved by the Haushaltsausschuss in BMVg press releases dated between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive is 20 or more, with a tolerance of plus or minus two proposals where the BMVg release and contemporaneous trade reporting disagree on a single sitting. Where the BMVg release states a count, that count governs. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "german-procurement-2026-autumn", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-259", "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026, that initial Grade A nitrocellulose production capability has been achieved at Radford Army Ammunition Plant.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.15, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0015", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The only public carrier of a fourth-quarter FY2026 target for initial Grade A nitrocellulose capability at Radford is Inside Defense, reporting an Army energetics report that has not been published, and no Army document reachable in this collection pass states the milestone. Two conditions must both hold for a TRUE: the capability must be achieved, and the Army must say so in public inside three months of the fiscal-year close. The Army published no rate or capability statement on this facility through 10 September 2026 despite publishing repeatedly on other ammunition facilities in 2026, which is the main reason the number is low rather than moderate. No defensible empirical base rate was available at lock. Resolution rule: TRUE only if, on or before 31 December 2026, one of the following is published and states that initial production capability, initial operating capability, or initial production of Grade A nitrocellulose has been achieved or commenced at Radford Army Ammunition Plant: (a) a news release or article on cpeae.army.mil or army.mil; (b) testimony or a written statement for the record submitted by an Army or Department of War official to a committee of Congress; or (c) a Department of the Army budget justification document or exhibit. A trade-press report describing an unpublished government document, including any report of the Army energetics report written to the FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act requirement, does NOT resolve this claim, whether or not the outlet quotes the document. A report by any outlet that quotes a named official making the statement in public does resolve it, because the resolving act is the public official statement rather than the outlet. A statement that the facility has been commissioned, constructed, opened or ribbon-cut, without a statement that production or production capability has been achieved, does NOT resolve it TRUE. Absent a qualifying statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0015", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "Public statements of the United States Army and of the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics: https://www.cpeae.army.mil/News/ and https://www.army.mil/news/, congressional testimony published by the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, and Department of the Army budget justification material published at https://www.asafm.army.mil/Budget-Materials/.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "TRUE only if, on or before 31 December 2026, one of the following is published and states that initial production capability, initial operating capability, or initial production of Grade A nitrocellulose has been achieved or commenced at Radford Army Ammunition Plant: (a) a news release or article on cpeae.army.mil or army.mil; (b) testimony or a written statement for the record submitted by an Army or Department of War official to a committee of Congress; or (c) a Department of the Army budget justification document or exhibit. A trade-press report describing an unpublished government document, including any report of the Army energetics report written to the FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act requirement, does NOT resolve this claim, whether or not the outlet quotes the document. A report by any outlet that quotes a named official making the statement in public does resolve it, because the resolving act is the public official statement rather than the outlet. A statement that the facility has been commissioned, constructed, opened or ribbon-cut, without a statement that production or production capability has been achieved, does NOT resolve it TRUE. Absent a qualifying statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-nitrocellulose-radford-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-260", "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from USAspending.gov on 16 November 2026, will be 5.9 billion United States dollars, with an interval of 5.0 billion to 8.5 billion United States dollars.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked point and interval approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0016; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The slate's draft threshold of 25 billion dollars on PSC 13xx is not supportable on the retrieved series and is rebuilt here on the series the data support. Derivation: the Collector's pull gives DoD PSC 13 obligations of 5.53 billion (FY2022), 9.96 billion (FY2023), 11.11 billion (FY2024), 10.83 billion (FY2025) and 4.739 billion for FY2026 through 9 September 2026. That partial year covers 344 of 365 days, or 94.2 per cent, so a pro-rata full year at the same daily rate is 4.739 / 0.942 = 5.03 billion dollars, which sets the low bound: obligations rise from here except for de-obligations. The central of 5.9 billion applies a judged uplift of about 17 per cent over that floor for the year-end obligation surge in the final three weeks plus post-year-end settlement of award records. The high bound of 8.5 billion is the level at which the final three weeks and settlement would have to carry more than 40 per cent of the year, which lumpy multi-year ammunition awards make possible but which no year in the FY2022 to FY2025 series suggests is likely; a value at or above 11 billion, restoring the FY2024 to FY2025 plateau, is judged outside the interval. The firm does not hold the FY2022 to FY2025 as-of-9-September snapshots that would have converted this judgment into a measured ratio, so the uplift is a judgment call: No defensible empirical base rate was available at lock. The 25 billion dollar figure in the slate is almost certainly the FY2026 reconciliation munitions procurement line, a multi-year appropriation available to 30 September 2029 and not a single-year obligation total in any product group; PSC 14 (guided missiles) is the series that runs at 23 to 32 billion dollars a year. Challenger note, 10 September 2026: the derivation was recomputed independently and reproduces. 344 of 365 days is 94.25 per cent; 4.7389 / 0.9425 is 5.028 billion, the low bound. A full year of 8.5 billion would require the residual 3.761 billion to be 44.2 per cent of the year, which is the \"more than 40 per cent\" the high bound describes. The stated query was executed against the live endpoint on 10 September 2026 and returned 4,738,916,734.34 dollars, matching chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_by_fy.csv exactly. Resolution rule: Resolved by a single read of the USAspending.gov API v2 spending_over_time endpoint on 16 November 2026, using this request body exactly: {\"group\": \"fiscal_year\", \"subawards\": false, \"filters\": {\"time_period\": [{\"start_date\": \"2025-10-01\", \"end_date\": \"2026-09-30\", \"date_type\": \"action_date\"}], \"psc_codes\": {\"require\": [[\"Product\", \"13\"]]}, \"agencies\": [{\"type\": \"awarding\", \"tier\": \"toptier\", \"name\": \"Department of Defense\"}]}}. Three parameters are stated explicitly because each of them moves the number and neither is the same under a plausible alternative choice: date_type must be action_date, because date_type \"date_signed\" returned $3.832 billion against action_date's $4.739 billion on the same filters on 10 September 2026, a 19 per cent difference; subawards must be false, because subawards true returned $1.738 billion on the same filters on the same date; and award_type_codes is deliberately omitted, which was verified on 10 September 2026 to return the identical value to an explicit contracts-only list and to a contracts-plus-IDV list, because the product-code filter already confines the result to procurement. The field read is aggregated_amount for the single FY2026 row returned, expressed in United States dollars and converted to billions. On the awarding-agency name: the toptier agency is read as whatever name USAspending then uses for the agency currently published as \"Department of Defense\" (toptier code 097). On 10 September 2026 the literal string \"Department of War\" returned $0 on this endpoint, so a zero or near-zero result is to be treated as a query failure and the agency name re-checked against the endpoint's agency autocomplete before the claim is scored, never as a reading of the series. The claim scores as a hit if the value falls at or between 5.0 and 8.5 billion dollars, and the point score is the absolute difference between the read value and 5.9 billion dollars. If the endpoint or the filter syntax has changed by the resolution date, the equivalent query on the successor endpoint is used and the substitution is recorded. The read date is fixed at 16 November 2026 and is not moved for data completeness, because the series continues to settle after fiscal year end and a floating read date would make the claim unscorable.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0016", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-16", "resolution_source": "USAspending.gov API v2, endpoint POST https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/, read on 16 November 2026.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "Resolved by a single read of the USAspending.gov API v2 spending_over_time endpoint on 16 November 2026, using this request body exactly: {\"group\": \"fiscal_year\", \"subawards\": false, \"filters\": {\"time_period\": [{\"start_date\": \"2025-10-01\", \"end_date\": \"2026-09-30\", \"date_type\": \"action_date\"}], \"psc_codes\": {\"require\": [[\"Product\", \"13\"]]}, \"agencies\": [{\"type\": \"awarding\", \"tier\": \"toptier\", \"name\": \"Department of Defense\"}]}}. Three parameters are stated explicitly because each of them moves the number and neither is the same under a plausible alternative choice: date_type must be action_date, because date_type \"date_signed\" returned $3.832 billion against action_date's $4.739 billion on the same filters on 10 September 2026, a 19 per cent difference; subawards must be false, because subawards true returned $1.738 billion on the same filters on the same date; and award_type_codes is deliberately omitted, which was verified on 10 September 2026 to return the identical value to an explicit contracts-only list and to a contracts-plus-IDV list, because the product-code filter already confines the result to procurement. The field read is aggregated_amount for the single FY2026 row returned, expressed in United States dollars and converted to billions. On the awarding-agency name: the toptier agency is read as whatever name USAspending then uses for the agency currently published as \"Department of Defense\" (toptier code 097). On 10 September 2026 the literal string \"Department of War\" returned $0 on this endpoint, so a zero or near-zero result is to be treated as a query failure and the agency name re-checked against the endpoint's agency autocomplete before the claim is scored, never as a reading of the series. The claim scores as a hit if the value falls at or between 5.0 and 8.5 billion dollars, and the point score is the absolute difference between the read value and 5.9 billion dollars. If the endpoint or the filter syntax has changed by the resolution date, the equivalent query on the successor endpoint is used and the substitution is recorded. The read date is fixed at 16 November 2026 and is not moved for data completeness, because the series continues to settle after fiscal year end and a floating read date would make the claim unscorable." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-munitions-obligations-fy2026", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 5.0, "central": 5.9, "hi": 8.5, "unit": "United States dollars, billions, nominal, contract obligations" } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-261", "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "desk": "defense", "statement": "A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War Inspector General or Government Accountability Office product, issued on or before 31 December 2026, states a 155mm load, assemble and pack rate of 63,000 rounds per month or more for any month up to and including November 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.12, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0017", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "DOWIG-2026-095 records a load, assemble and pack rate of 36,000 rounds per month as of March 2026 against milestones of 63,000 by September 2026 and 140,000 by December 2027, and states that the Army is eleven months behind its planned production milestones. Reaching 63,000 by September 2026 would require a 75 per cent increase in six months at a stage that took four years to move from 14,000 to 36,000, and the metal-parts layer above it supplied only 46,000 parts a month at the same date. The claim also carries a publication condition: even a rate at or above 63,000 resolves it FALSE unless it is stated publicly by 31 December 2026, and the Army published no rate figure later than March 2026 through 10 September 2026. Both conditions failing is the strong expectation. No defensible empirical base rate was available at lock. Resolution rule: TRUE only if a document or statement in one of the named classes, published on or before 31 December 2026, states a United States 155mm load, assemble and pack rate, or an all-up-round production rate, of 63,000 rounds per month or more for a named month falling on or before 30 November 2026. The figure must be a stated actual or achieved rate. A planned rate, a projected rate, a milestone, a goal, a capacity figure, a design capacity, a contractor-stated capacity, or a rate expressed for a month after November 2026 does NOT resolve it TRUE. A metal-parts rate does not resolve it, because the claim is on the load, assemble and pack stage; where a document reports both, the load, assemble and pack figure governs. A statement by a named official reported by any outlet resolves it, because the resolving act is the public official statement. Absent such a statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0017", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "Public statements of the United States Army and of the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics (https://www.cpeae.army.mil/News/, https://www.army.mil/news/), congressional testimony, and reports published by the Department of War Office of Inspector General (https://www.dodig.mil/Reports/ and https://www.oversight.gov/) or the Government Accountability Office (https://www.gao.gov/).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "TRUE only if a document or statement in one of the named classes, published on or before 31 December 2026, states a United States 155mm load, assemble and pack rate, or an all-up-round production rate, of 63,000 rounds per month or more for a named month falling on or before 30 November 2026. The figure must be a stated actual or achieved rate. A planned rate, a projected rate, a milestone, a goal, a capacity figure, a design capacity, a contractor-stated capacity, or a rate expressed for a month after November 2026 does NOT resolve it TRUE. A metal-parts rate does not resolve it, because the claim is on the load, assemble and pack stage; where a document reports both, the load, assemble and pack figure governs. A statement by a named official reported by any outlet resolves it, because the resolving act is the public official statement. Absent such a statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-155mm-production-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-262", "brief": "forty-seven-days-to-november-10", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-10", "p": 0.25, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-MIN-26-004; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0018", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the analyst's own judgment, not a model output. The precedent argues for NO. Announcement No. 70 of 2025 published on 7 November 2025, three days before the instruments it forestalled would have bitten in full and six days after the White House fact sheet of 1 November 2025 that announced the arrangement; mapped onto the current calendar that lag falls in late October or early November, well past a 10 October cutoff. The 2026 record adds a second observation: the May 2026 Beijing state visit produced White House fact-sheet language on yttrium, scandium and indium and no Chinese instrument on rare earths, and no statement on whether the November expiry would be extended. So two leader-level meetings in ten months produced one extension instrument between them, and that one published late. Decomposed: P(the 24 September summit produces any rare-earth deliverable) is the dominant term and the reported United States ask is licence throughput rather than the suspension itself, which puts it near 0.5; P(the deliverable is written in a form that clears scoring notes 3 and 4, that is a White House fact sheet or a numbered instrument covering all six) near 0.6, since the November 2025 fact sheet did clear that bar but a summit whose deliverables are agriculture and tariff lines may produce only spokesperson language; P(published on or before 10 October given both) near 0.85, since a fact sheet issues on the day and the summit sits 16 days before the cutoff. That product is about 0.26. The White House limb is the main upward pressure: a fact sheet stating that China will extend resolves YES with no Chinese instrument at all, and scoring note 6 adds a repeal path. 0.25 is consistent with this brief's own Outlook, in which the extension appears only in Stabilization, carried at Low to Moderate construction confidence. Resolution rule: Resolves YES if, at any time from the lock date up to and including 23:59 Beijing time on 10 October 2026, either (a) a numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC announcement appears on the 2026 announcements index whose text extends, prolongs or replaces the suspension set by Announcement No. 70 of 2025 to a date later than 10 November 2026, or (b) a White House fact sheet or equivalent official White House statement states that China will extend, or has agreed to extend, that suspension beyond 10 November 2026. Otherwise resolves NO. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An announcement that extends the suspension without naming an end date resolves YES, because the suspension is thereby not lapsing on 10 November 2026; the absence of an end date is recorded in the resolution note but does not change the score. (2) An announcement made after 10 October 2026 but before 10 November 2026 resolves NO. The claim is about the timing of the announcement, not about whether the suspension ultimately lapses. (3) A statement by an official, a spokesperson or a press-conference transcript that is not a numbered MOFCOM instrument and not a White House fact sheet or equivalent official written White House statement does not resolve YES on its own. (4) An announcement covering only some of the six named instruments resolves NO unless all six are extended. (5) An instrument extending only the suspension of clause two of Announcement No. 46 of 2024, which runs to 27 November 2026 under Announcement No. 72 of 2025, does not resolve this claim YES, because that is a separate instrument. (6) Repeal or permanent removal of all six instruments, rather than extension of their suspension, resolves YES.", "source": { "location": "AIG-MIN-26-004, forward tranche MFG-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0018", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-10", "resolution_source": "MOFCOM announcements index, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2026/index.html, or a White House fact sheet published on whitehouse.gov", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Resolves YES if, at any time from the lock date up to and including 23:59 Beijing time on 10 October 2026, either (a) a numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC announcement appears on the 2026 announcements index whose text extends, prolongs or replaces the suspension set by Announcement No. 70 of 2025 to a date later than 10 November 2026, or (b) a White House fact sheet or equivalent official White House statement states that China will extend, or has agreed to extend, that suspension beyond 10 November 2026. Otherwise resolves NO. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An announcement that extends the suspension without naming an end date resolves YES, because the suspension is thereby not lapsing on 10 November 2026; the absence of an end date is recorded in the resolution note but does not change the score. (2) An announcement made after 10 October 2026 but before 10 November 2026 resolves NO. The claim is about the timing of the announcement, not about whether the suspension ultimately lapses. (3) A statement by an official, a spokesperson or a press-conference transcript that is not a numbered MOFCOM instrument and not a White House fact sheet or equivalent official written White House statement does not resolve YES on its own. (4) An announcement covering only some of the six named instruments resolves NO unless all six are extended. (5) An instrument extending only the suspension of clause two of Announcement No. 46 of 2024, which runs to 27 November 2026 under Announcement No. 72 of 2025, does not resolve this claim YES, because that is a separate instrument. (6) Repeal or permanent removal of all six instruments, rather than extension of their suspension, resolves YES." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-rare-earth-suspension-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-263", "brief": "forty-seven-days-to-november-10", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "p": 0.92, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-MIN-26-004; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0019", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the analyst's own judgment, not a model output. It tests the load-bearing separability claim in this brief: that the base layer of the licensing regime and the suspended October 2025 layer are different questions. Announcement No. 70 of 2025 suspends by enumeration and does not name Announcement No. 18 of 2025, and no MOFCOM instrument creating general licences was found on either index. The probability is high because the resolution rule is narrow: the only NO path is a numbered MOFCOM instrument suspending, repealing or replacing Announcement 18 within eight weeks, and the brief's own view is that no such instrument is under discussion. State the limit plainly. This claim scores easily and it earns little. It tests whether an instrument survives on an index, not whether the constraint continues to bind. A world in which MOFCOM leaves Announcement 18 formally in force and quietly clears the United States licence queue resolves this claim YES while falsifying the brief's operational conclusion. The claim that would test the operative variable is a tonnage threshold on GACC detailed data for a named controlled element, which the desk cannot currently resolve because gap G4 is open and the GACC detailed release is not reliably reachable; it is recommended to the manager for the next cycle rather than proposed here. Resolution rule: Resolves YES if, as of 23:59 Beijing time on 10 November 2026, no numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC instrument published on the 2025 or 2026 announcements indices suspends, repeals or replaces MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 of 4 April 2025 in whole. Resolves NO if such an instrument exists on the index by that time. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An instrument that suspends Announcement No. 18 of 2025 in part, for example for a named element or a named class of end user, resolves NO, and the scorer records which part. (2) An administrative facility such as a general licence, a streamlined process or a case-by-case approval commitment, whether described by a MOFCOM spokesperson, a press-conference transcript, a Chinese state media report or a White House fact sheet, does not resolve NO, because it is not an instrument on the announcements index. (3) An instrument that adds elements to, or otherwise tightens, the Announcement 18 regime resolves YES, because the announcement remains in force. (4) If the MOFCOM index is unreachable on the resolution date, the scorer waits until it is reachable and scores against the index state as of the resolution date.", "source": { "location": "AIG-MIN-26-004, forward tranche MFG-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0019", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-10", "resolution_source": "MOFCOM announcements index, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2026/index.html, checked together with the 2025 index at https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2025/index.html", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Resolves YES if, as of 23:59 Beijing time on 10 November 2026, no numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC instrument published on the 2025 or 2026 announcements indices suspends, repeals or replaces MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 of 4 April 2025 in whole. Resolves NO if such an instrument exists on the index by that time. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An instrument that suspends Announcement No. 18 of 2025 in part, for example for a named element or a named class of end user, resolves NO, and the scorer records which part. (2) An administrative facility such as a general licence, a streamlined process or a case-by-case approval commitment, whether described by a MOFCOM spokesperson, a press-conference transcript, a Chinese state media report or a White House fact sheet, does not resolve NO, because it is not an instrument on the announcements index. (3) An instrument that adds elements to, or otherwise tightens, the Announcement 18 regime resolves YES, because the announcement remains in force. (4) If the MOFCOM index is unreachable on the resolution date, the scorer waits until it is reachable and scores against the index state as of the resolution date." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-announcement-18-status-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-264", "brief": "after-the-duma", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its official determination of the results of the 18 to 20 September 2026 election.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-05", "p": 0.8, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-005; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0020", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "United Russia won 324 seats in 2021; its VCIOM rating rose through August 2026, an INSOMAR projection put it above half the list vote, and Yabloko was removed from the ballot. The 0.80 probability is an analyst judgment, held below near-certainty because no published seat projection was available and the new single-member districts and expanded remote voting remain untested. Horizon is measured from the 11 September 2026 issue date. Resolution rule: YES if the CEC's official determination credits United Russia with 300 or more seats, summing federal-list and single-member seats before later transfers, refusals, redistributions, or by-elections. Exactly 300 is YES; 299 is NO. Seats credited to United Russia nominees count; independents do not, even if they later join its faction. Score when the later of the two components is officially determined. If the CEC is unreachable, use Interfax Russian-language reporting of the determination; if that is also unreachable, use Rossiyskaya Gazeta; if all three are unreachable, require two independent allowlisted outlets to agree on the CEC-attributed total. The highest-priority reachable source governs any disagreement, which must be recorded. If no determination exists by 5 October, resolve when it is published and record the delay; do not infer a result from projections.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-005, forward tranche POL-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0020", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-05", "resolution_source": "cikrf.ru; Interfax Russian-language reporting; Rossiyskaya Gazeta; or two independent allowlisted outlets, in that order", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES if the CEC's official determination credits United Russia with 300 or more seats, summing federal-list and single-member seats before later transfers, refusals, redistributions, or by-elections. Exactly 300 is YES; 299 is NO. Seats credited to United Russia nominees count; independents do not, even if they later join its faction. Score when the later of the two components is officially determined. If the CEC is unreachable, use Interfax Russian-language reporting of the determination; if that is also unreachable, use Rossiyskaya Gazeta; if all three are unreachable, require two independent allowlisted outlets to agree on the CEC-attributed total. The highest-priority reachable source governs any disagreement, which must be recorded. If no determination exists by 5 October, resolve when it is published and record the delay; do not infer a result from projections." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "russia-duma-seats-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-265", "brief": "after-the-duma", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three governments publicly acknowledge as trilateral, on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.55, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-005; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0021", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The trilateral format exists and Moscow said on 9 September that agreement had been reached to resume it, but no date, venue, or level was fixed. The physical co-location, seniority, and three-government acknowledgment requirements make this a higher bar than resumed contacts. The 0.55 probability is an analyst judgment. Horizon is measured from the 11 September 2026 issue date. Resolution rule: YES only if all three governments are physically represented in the same negotiating session and each delegation includes at least one head of state or government, minister, presidential or prime-ministerial envoy, presidential aide, national security adviser, security-council secretary, national intelligence-service head, or chief of the general staff. Deputy ministers, ambassadors, departmental directors, technical delegates, telephone or video calls, shuttle diplomacy, and proximity without evidence of a shared room do not count. All three governments must acknowledge the trilateral meeting through the named official channels. For the United States, an official White House or State Department readout reproduced in the Congressional Record or Federal Register qualifies. A joint statement issued by all three governments satisfies all acknowledgment limbs. If the meeting is acknowledged but shared-room evidence is absent by 9 October, or if only two governments acknowledge it, resolve NO. A qualifying meeting announced before but held after 9 October resolves NO.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-005, forward tranche POL-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0021", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "kremlin.ru or mid.ru; president.gov.ua or mfa.gov.ua; and whitehouse.gov or an official White House or State Department readout carried in the Congressional Record or Federal Register", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES only if all three governments are physically represented in the same negotiating session and each delegation includes at least one head of state or government, minister, presidential or prime-ministerial envoy, presidential aide, national security adviser, security-council secretary, national intelligence-service head, or chief of the general staff. Deputy ministers, ambassadors, departmental directors, technical delegates, telephone or video calls, shuttle diplomacy, and proximity without evidence of a shared room do not count. All three governments must acknowledge the trilateral meeting through the named official channels. For the United States, an official White House or State Department readout reproduced in the Congressional Record or Federal Register qualifies. A joint statement issued by all three governments satisfies all acknowledgment limbs. If the meeting is acknowledged but shared-room evidence is absent by 9 October, or if only two governments acknowledge it, resolve NO. A qualifying meeting announced before but held after 9 October resolves NO." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "russia-ukraine-trilateral-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-266", "brief": "three-percent-on-paper", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-11", "p": 0.12, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-006; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0022", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "No report in the 91-report 11 June to 9 September series reached 30 ADIZ entries; the maximum was 26. The probability is raised above that observed zero for the PRC and ROC national-day window and exercise risk, then restrained because no Eastern Theater Command exercise announcement was found and 2026 air activity was running below 2025. This is an analyst judgment, not an automated model output. Resolution rule: YES if at least one ministry report published from 1 through 10 October states that 30 or more PLA aircraft sorties entered Taiwan's ADIZ. Use the ADIZ-entry count, not total sorties; exactly 30 is YES. Assign each report to its publication date. Reports of no PLA aircraft count as zero. Separate same-day exercise releases do not substitute for the full daily report. If either the official page or named mirror supplies a report, use its published figure without reconstructing third-party counts. An unavailable or count-free report is unresolvable and the claim is scored on the other resolvable days. If all ten days remain unresolvable at 23:59 UTC+8 on 11 October, the claim is VOID rather than NO.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-006, forward tranche POL-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0022", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-11", "resolution_source": "Republic of China Ministry of National Defense daily PLA-activity reports at https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/news/plaact/, with https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2026/ as the named mirror", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES if at least one ministry report published from 1 through 10 October states that 30 or more PLA aircraft sorties entered Taiwan's ADIZ. Use the ADIZ-entry count, not total sorties; exactly 30 is YES. Assign each report to its publication date. Reports of no PLA aircraft count as zero. Separate same-day exercise releases do not substitute for the full daily report. If either the official page or named mirror supplies a report, use its published figure without reconstructing third-party counts. An unavailable or count-free report is unresolvable and the claim is scored on the other resolvable days. If all ten days remain unresolvable at 23:59 UTC+8 on 11 October, the claim is VOID rather than NO." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "taiwan-adiz-october-2026", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-267", "brief": "three-percent-on-paper", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2027-01-31", "p": 0.15, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-006; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0023", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Only one of four datable recent budget cycles cleared by 31 December, and the 2026 cycle was exceptionally delayed. Given passage, falling below NT$1.0tn requires a 15.3 percent cut across the votable components after carry-forwards, equivalent to 10.9 percent of the headline aggregate, far above the cited recent defence-line cut. The combined probability is 0.15 and is an analyst judgment. The event cutoff is 31 December; the 31 January resolution date represents the component-verification window. Resolution rule: YES requires third reading of the 2027 central-government general budget on or before 31 December 2026 and a five-component defence aggregate of at least NT$1,000.0 billion at that reading. Sum the Ministry of National Defense general budget, the 2027 special-budget tranche, non-profit special funds, military pensions, and Coast Guard Administration. If a component is published only as a change, apply it to the proposal. If the enacted materials do not separately report the special-budget tranche, military pensions, or non-profit special funds, carry forward the proposed NT$218.2bn, NT$103.8bn, and NT$60.7bn respectively and disclose each substitution. Committee action, second reading, interim funding, continuation of the 2026 budget, and separate supplementary-budget passage do not count. Later reconsideration does not reverse the score. If no third reading occurs by 31 December, resolve NO. If timely third reading occurs but the five components remain unresolvable from the named sources through 31 January 2027 after the carry-forwards, resolve VOID.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-006, forward tranche POL-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0023", "window_as_stated": "2027-01-31", "resolution_source": "Legislative Yuan at https://www.ly.gov.tw, with Focus Taiwan at https://focustaiwan.tw as the named mirror", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES requires third reading of the 2027 central-government general budget on or before 31 December 2026 and a five-component defence aggregate of at least NT$1,000.0 billion at that reading. Sum the Ministry of National Defense general budget, the 2027 special-budget tranche, non-profit special funds, military pensions, and Coast Guard Administration. If a component is published only as a change, apply it to the proposal. If the enacted materials do not separately report the special-budget tranche, military pensions, or non-profit special funds, carry forward the proposed NT$218.2bn, NT$103.8bn, and NT$60.7bn respectively and disclose each substitution. Committee action, second reading, interim funding, continuation of the 2026 budget, and separate supplementary-budget passage do not count. Later reconsideration does not reverse the score. If no third reading occurs by 31 December, resolve NO. If timely third reading occurs but the five components remain unresolvable from the named sources through 31 January 2027 after the carry-forwards, resolve VOID." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "taiwan-defense-budget-2027", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-268", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "p": 0.62, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0024", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "July core PCE was 3.3 percent and energy pass-through has not broadened decisively. Resolution rule: TRUE if BEA's first published August 2026 core PCE 12-month change is at least 3.3 percent; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0024", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-30", "resolution_source": "BEA Personal Income and Outlays", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if BEA's first published August 2026 core PCE 12-month change is at least 3.3 percent; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-269", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-02", "p": 0.38, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0025", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "August unemployment was 4.1 percent, with softer participation but solid payroll growth. Resolution rule: TRUE if BLS first reports September unemployment at 4.2 percent or higher; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0025", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-02", "resolution_source": "BLS Employment Situation", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if BLS first reports September unemployment at 4.2 percent or higher; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-270", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.35, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0026", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Both agencies have proposals outstanding, but finalization timing is uncertain. Resolution rule: TRUE if a final rule from OCC or FDIC implementing GENIUS is published by 23:59 ET; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0026", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "Federal Register", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if a final rule from OCC or FDIC implementing GENIUS is published by 23:59 ET; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-271", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.38, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0027", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The threshold is about $8 billion above the 9 September reading after a $6.2 billion contraction since June. Resolution rule: TRUE if the API daily total for 9 October is at least $320 billion; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C4; engine record AIG-FWD-0027", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "DefiLlama stablecoin charts API", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if the API daily total for 9 October is at least $320 billion; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-272", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-14", "p": 0.7, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0028", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The current pause is temporary by design and October cash needs increase. Resolution rule: TRUE if the schedule explicitly states RMPs above zero; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C5; engine record AIG-FWD-0028", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-14", "resolution_source": "New York Fed Treasury Securities Operational Details", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if the schedule explicitly states RMPs above zero; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-273", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.68, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0029", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The spread was already positive before October issuance rises. Resolution rule: Use the latest common business-day observation on or before 31 October; TRUE if DTB3 is at least IORB, otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C6; engine record AIG-FWD-0029", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "FRED DTB3 and IORB", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Use the latest common business-day observation on or before 31 October; TRUE if DTB3 is at least IORB, otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-274", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.78, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0030", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Treasury projected a late-October peak near $1.05 trillion. Resolution rule: TRUE if any October closing operating cash balance is above $1,000,000 million; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C7; engine record AIG-FWD-0030", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "Daily Treasury Statement operating cash balance", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if any October closing operating cash balance is above $1,000,000 million; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-275", "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "desk": "defense", "statement": "At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2), meaning conduct described at 6 U.S.C. 124n(b)(1)(C), (D) or (F) and not detection, warning or confiscation by hand, occurring anywhere in the United States between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, is publicly reported by 31 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.2, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-DEF-26-008; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0031", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This claim tests public reporting, not operations. The 48-hour post-operation report required by 6 CFR 124.13(a) is filed to a closed federal coordination portal and nothing in section 124.13 requires publication of an individual report, so a mitigation action can occur and leave no public trace inside the horizon; the first scheduled public accounting is the report to Congress due by 18 December 2026, after this resolution date. The probability is set low because at a National Special Security Event section 124.10(c) puts a federal agency in the lead, the World Cup precedent produced more than 700 seizures with no reported SLTT-independent mitigation, and only 61 officers across about 46 agencies were certified as of 1 July 2026. Base rate for a public report of an SLTT mitigation action within a ten-day National Special Security Event window: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Class match for first-year public disclosure behaviour under a new federal-state authority: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Resolution rule: Scores YES only if a source in the resolution_source list, published on or before 31 October 2026, states that a named or unnamed SLTT law enforcement or correctional agency disrupted control of, seized or exercised control of, or used force to disable, damage or destroy an unmanned aircraft, in the United States, on a date between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, and either states that the agency acted under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2) or 6 CFR part 124, or describes the action in terms that exclude action as a federally deputized task force officer. Detection, identification, monitoring, tracking, warning of an operator, and physical confiscation of a landed or recovered aircraft do NOT score YES. A federal agency taking the action does not score YES. An action outside 18 to 28 September 2026 does not score YES. THE ABSENCE OF ANY PUBLIC REPORT SCORES NO. Ambiguity about whether the acting officers were deputized scores NO. The claim is scored on what is publicly readable on 31 October 2026; a later disclosure, including the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) report due by 18 December 2026, does not reopen it.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-008, forward item DEF-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0031", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "Any of the following, checked in this order on 31 October 2026: (1) fbi.gov newsroom and FBI New York field office news page; (2) dhs.gov and secretservice.gov newsrooms; (3) justice.gov Office of Legal Policy counter-UAS pages and Southern and Eastern District of New York press releases; (4) faa.gov newsroom; (5) nyc.gov NYPD newsroom and Mayor's Office press releases; (6) any allowlisted Tier 3 outlet (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, WaPo, FT, BBC) reporting such an action; (7) the FCC Electronic Comment Filing System and Federal Register for any agency filing describing such an action.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Scores YES only if a source in the resolution_source list, published on or before 31 October 2026, states that a named or unnamed SLTT law enforcement or correctional agency disrupted control of, seized or exercised control of, or used force to disable, damage or destroy an unmanned aircraft, in the United States, on a date between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, and either states that the agency acted under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2) or 6 CFR part 124, or describes the action in terms that exclude action as a federally deputized task force officer. Detection, identification, monitoring, tracking, warning of an operator, and physical confiscation of a landed or recovered aircraft do NOT score YES. A federal agency taking the action does not score YES. An action outside 18 to 28 September 2026 does not score YES. THE ABSENCE OF ANY PUBLIC REPORT SCORES NO. Ambiguity about whether the acting officers were deputized scores NO. The claim is scored on what is publicly readable on 31 October 2026; a later disclosure, including the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) report due by 18 December 2026, does not reopen it." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-lead-agency-rule", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-276", "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or specific systems, is published in a publicly readable form not requiring law-enforcement credentials, on or before 31 December 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.55, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-DEF-26-008; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0032", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The resolution date is chosen because 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) requires an unclassified report not later than one year after 18 December 2025, and clause (iii) requires that report to include a list of currently authorized technologies; 31 December 2026 allows thirteen days for the report to appear publicly after its statutory deadline. The probability sits slightly above even because the statutory requirement is explicit and unclassified, and slightly short of confident because the report may be delivered late, may be published only to the committees, or may describe technologies in category terms already in the rule's preamble, and because the systems list itself is stated by the FCC to be maintained on the Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal. Base rate for on-time delivery and public posting of a first statutory report of this class: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Resolution rule: Scores YES if, on or before 31 December 2026, any source in the resolution_source list makes publicly readable, without law-enforcement credentials or a Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal account, either (a) the enumerated technology categories on the Authorized Technologies List, or (b) one or more specific systems identified as being on the Authorized Systems List. A statement of the Departments' expectation about what the lists will contain, of the kind already in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, does NOT score YES; the published content must be presented as the list or as its current contents. A partial publication, for example the list of currently authorized technologies required at 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D)(iii), scores YES. If the report required by 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) presents a list of currently authorized technologies, it scores YES even where the categories it names are the same as those the Departments described as their expectation in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, because the report presents them as the list rather than as an expectation. Vendor announcements of listing are COMPANY-STATED and do NOT score YES. Absence of any such publication scores NO.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-008, forward item DEF-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0032", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "Checked on 31 December 2026: (1) the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) unclassified report to Congress, as published on congress.gov, govinfo.gov, justice.gov or fbi.gov; (2) fbi.gov counter-UAS pages; (3) dhs.gov counter-unmanned-aircraft-systems pages; (4) justice.gov Office of Legal Policy counter-UAS pages; (5) federalregister.gov, for any notice or final rule reproducing or incorporating either list; (6) fcc.gov, for any release reproducing either list.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Scores YES if, on or before 31 December 2026, any source in the resolution_source list makes publicly readable, without law-enforcement credentials or a Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal account, either (a) the enumerated technology categories on the Authorized Technologies List, or (b) one or more specific systems identified as being on the Authorized Systems List. A statement of the Departments' expectation about what the lists will contain, of the kind already in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, does NOT score YES; the published content must be presented as the list or as its current contents. A partial publication, for example the list of currently authorized technologies required at 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D)(iii), scores YES. If the report required by 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) presents a list of currently authorized technologies, it scores YES even where the categories it names are the same as those the Departments described as their expectation in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, because the report presents them as the list rather than as an expectation. Vendor announcements of listing are COMPANY-STATED and do NOT score YES. Absence of any such publication scores NO." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-lead-agency-rule", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-277", "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is renewed, extended, or replaced by a categorical or standing authorisation covering the same class of operations, with effect on or before 31 January 2027.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2027-01-31", "p": 0.75, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-DEF-26-008; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0033", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The Commission granted DA 26-656 on its own motion rather than on application, which indicates institutional intent to keep the SLTT class lawful to transmit, and the interim final rule records that the Departments and the Commission will work to establish standing or categorical authorizations. Against that, the instrument is temporary by construction, no renewal notice had been located as of 9 September 2026, and a gap between lapse on about 29 December 2026 and a replacement is possible, which is why the resolution date allows 33 days past the lapse. Base rate for renewal of a Commission blanket special temporary authority granted on its own motion: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Resolution rule: Scores YES if a Federal Communications Commission release dated on or before 31 January 2027 does any of: extends or renews the DA 26-656 special temporary authority; grants a new special temporary authority to the same class of SLTT agencies for the same class of counter-UAS operations; or adopts a categorical, standing, blanket or rule-based authorisation permitting those operations. A grant to a single named agency, or to a group of named agencies rather than to the class, does NOT score YES. A part 2 equipment authorisation or waiver to a manufacturer does NOT score YES. Scores NO if the authority lapses on or about 29 December 2026 with no such instrument in effect by 31 January 2027, and NO if no relevant release is located.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-008, forward item DEF-1-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0033", "window_as_stated": "2027-01-31", "resolution_source": "Checked on 31 January 2027: (1) FCC Electronic Document Management System and Daily Digest at fcc.gov for releases in GN Docket 26-74; (2) the FCC Electronic Comment Filing System docket 26-74 filing set; (3) federalregister.gov for any FCC rule or notice authorising SLTT counter-UAS emissions; (4) fcc.gov Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau and Office of Engineering and Technology release pages.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Scores YES if a Federal Communications Commission release dated on or before 31 January 2027 does any of: extends or renews the DA 26-656 special temporary authority; grants a new special temporary authority to the same class of SLTT agencies for the same class of counter-UAS operations; or adopts a categorical, standing, blanket or rule-based authorisation permitting those operations. A grant to a single named agency, or to a group of named agencies rather than to the class, does NOT score YES. A part 2 equipment authorisation or waiver to a manufacturer does NOT score YES. Scores NO if the authority lapses on or about 29 December 2026 with no such instrument in effect by 31 January 2027, and NO if no relevant release is located." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-lead-agency-rule", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-278", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": 0.4, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0034", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Post-print judgment, reset on 11 September before lock. August final-demand PPI rose 0.4 percent and 5.4 percent over twelve months, with energy up 4.2 percent, while August core CPI rose 0.3 percent and the three-month annualised core rate slowed to 1.97 percent from 3.05 percent through July. The CPI outcome satisfies the direction of improvement in Waller's published condition and moves no change to 0.58; the producer-price level, strong August payrolls and Warsh's broader standard preserve a 0.40 probability of a 25 basis point increase. A 50 basis point increase remains 0.02. The three decision branches sum to one: 0.58 hold, 0.40 up 25 basis points, 0.02 up 50 basis points. This claim resolves FALSE on both the hold and the 50 basis point branch. The 9 September futures-implied 60.1 percent predates both releases and is retained as a dated comparator, not an anchor. Analyst's own judgment call; a Metron base rate for FOMC outcomes conditional on futures-implied probabilities is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, and the gap is routed to Module 12. Resolution rule: Read the FOMC statement published on 16 September 2026. Resolve TRUE if the statement announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is 4.00 percent (written by the Board as 3-3/4 to 4 percent). Resolve FALSE for any other upper bound, including 3.75 percent (an unchanged range) and 4.25 percent (an increase of 50 basis points). If no statement is published on 16 September 2026, resolve on the first FOMC statement published thereafter that concludes the meeting of 15 to 16 September 2026.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0034", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement of record and the accompanying implementation note published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Read the FOMC statement published on 16 September 2026. Resolve TRUE if the statement announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is 4.00 percent (written by the Board as 3-3/4 to 4 percent). Resolve FALSE for any other upper bound, including 3.75 percent (an unchanged range) and 4.25 percent (an increase of 50 basis points). If no statement is published on 16 September 2026, resolve on the first FOMC statement published thereafter that concludes the meeting of 15 to 16 September 2026." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-279", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0035; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The June 2026 median was 3.8 percent, up from 3.4 percent in March, with nine of eighteen participants above the current 3.625 percent midpoint and six at 4.125 percent or higher. Since June, inflation has stayed above target on the six-month PCE window, energy has re-escalated, payrolls have been strong and three voters have dissented for a hike, all of which push the distribution up. The point of 4.1 percent assumes an increase at this meeting plus one more penciled across the two remaining 2026 meetings. The lower bound is 3.8 percent and not 3.9, because the desk holds no change at 0.58 and an unchanged median is the live outcome on that branch, which is what the Hold and Split scenario's own signal to watch concedes. Mass above 4.4 percent is negligible, since 4.375 percent would require three increases across the three remaining meetings. Analyst's own judgment call; a Metron base rate for SEP median revisions is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, routed to Module 12. Resolution rule: Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2026, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation, rounding or recomputation from the dot chart is permitted: the number scored is the number the Board prints. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.8 to 4.4 percent and a FAIL otherwise. The point estimate of 4.1 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so it can only take a sparse set of values; near this level those are 3.6, 3.8, 3.9, 4.0, 4.1, 4.3 and 4.4 percent.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0035", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026 projection materials, Table 1, row 'Federal funds rate', column '2026', median value, published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2026, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation, rounding or recomputation from the dot chart is permitted: the number scored is the number the Board prints. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.8 to 4.4 percent and a FAIL otherwise. The point estimate of 4.1 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so it can only take a sparse set of values; near this level those are 3.6, 3.8, 3.9, 4.0, 4.1, 4.3 and 4.4 percent." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 3.8, "central": 4.1, "hi": 4.4, "unit": "percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026" } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-280", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": 0.65, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0036", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Published decomposition across the three post-print decision branches, so the arithmetic reproduces. Branch weights: no change 0.58, an increase of 25 basis points 0.40, an increase of 50 basis points 0.02. Conditional probabilities of two or more dissents: 0.88 on no change, because the three July dissenters have each publicly reaffirmed since and at least two of the three dissenting again is close to the base case; 0.32 on an increase of 25 basis points, where Bowman's look-through position is the clearest single dissent, a second is genuinely unclear and two voters are UNKNOWN; 0.60 on an increase of 50 basis points. That gives 0.58 x 0.88 plus 0.40 x 0.32 plus 0.02 x 0.60 = 0.6504, published as 0.65. The in-year 2026 sample is two of four meetings with two or more dissents, which is too small to serve as a base rate and is not used as one; a Metron base rate for dissent counts at FOMC meetings is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, routed to Module 12. Analyst's own judgment call. Resolution rule: Count the named individuals recorded in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 as voting against the monetary policy action. Resolve TRUE if that count is two or more, FALSE if it is one or zero. Direction of dissent is irrelevant: a dissent preferring a higher rate and a dissent preferring a lower rate each count as one. A recorded abstention, or a member absent and not voting, does not count as a dissent. A statement carrying no sentence naming anyone voting against gives a count of zero and resolves FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0036", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement of record published on 16 September 2026, the paragraph beginning 'Voting for the monetary policy action were' and the sentence naming those voting against", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Count the named individuals recorded in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 as voting against the monetary policy action. Resolve TRUE if that count is two or more, FALSE if it is one or zero. Direction of dissent is irrelevant: a dissent preferring a higher rate and a dissent preferring a lower rate each count as one. A recorded abstention, or a member absent and not voting, does not count as a dissent. A statement carrying no sentence naming anyone voting against gives a count of zero and resolves FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-281", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0037; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The June 2026 median for 2027 was 3.6 percent, up from 3.1 percent in March, sitting at the arithmetic centre of a bimodal distribution with eight participants at 3.875 percent or above and eight at 3.375 percent or below. The point of 3.9 percent assumes the 2027 column moves up roughly in step with the 2026 column and preserves June's shape of a small implied easing from the 2026 level. The interval is capped at 4.0 percent rather than 4.1 so that the claim can lose in the direction the desk is arguing and not only in the direction it is not: a 2027 median of 4.1 percent, no easing at all across 2027, would beat this call. It also fails if the Committee leaves the median at 3.5 percent or below. Note the knife edge: in June the ninth and tenth 2027 submissions both sat at 3.625 percent, so a single participant moving one notch moves the printed value. This is the number the title of the brief asks about. Analyst's own judgment call; a Metron base rate for the persistence of SEP out-year medians is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, routed to Module 12. Resolution rule: Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2027, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation from the dot chart is permitted. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.6 to 4.0 percent and a FAIL otherwise; it FAILS on any printed value at or below 3.5 percent and on any printed value at or above 4.1 percent. The point estimate of 3.9 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so the interval is the four achievable values 3.6, 3.8, 3.9 and 4.0 percent, not a continuum.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C4; engine record AIG-FWD-0037", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026 projection materials, Table 1, row 'Federal funds rate', column '2027', median value, published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2027, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation from the dot chart is permitted. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.6 to 4.0 percent and a FAIL otherwise; it FAILS on any printed value at or below 3.5 percent and on any printed value at or above 4.1 percent. The point estimate of 3.9 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so the interval is the four achievable values 3.6, 3.8, 3.9 and 4.0 percent, not a continuum." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 3.6, "central": 3.9, "hi": 4.0, "unit": "percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027" } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-282", "brief": "sixty-votes-or-bust", "desk": "markets", "statement": "A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.55, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-RIB-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0038", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Leadership filed cloture and secured a scheduled vote, but the approved public source base contains no attributable vote commitments. The filing and schedule support a live path to the threshold; the absent whip count prevents higher confidence. Resolution rule: Resolve YES if an official Congressional Record roll call records at least 60 yeas on cloture for the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 on or before 30 September 2026. Resolve NO if every such vote by that date records fewer than 60 yeas or if no such vote occurs by that date.", "source": { "location": "AIG-RIB-26-001, forward item ECO2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0038", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-01", "resolution_source": "Congressional Record on GovInfo", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Resolve YES if an official Congressional Record roll call records at least 60 yeas on cloture for the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 on or before 30 September 2026. Resolve NO if every such vote by that date records fewer than 60 yeas or if no such vote occurs by that date." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "sixty-votes-or-bust", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-283", "brief": "panamas-second-drought", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) or lower, or reduces total daily booking slots below 32.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-11-03", "p": 0.2, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-SCL-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0039", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Advisory A-33-2026 of 4 September 2026 postponed the 47.5 ft step until further notice, citing the current Gatun Lake level and the latest weather projections, which is direct evidence against a further reduction inside the next seven weeks and is the single most informative fact available. The window also sits inside the September to November rainy season that the ACP Administrator named on 8 September 2026 as the three critical months determining whether slots fall further, and the ACP has said it will give advance notice of changes, so a cut effective inside the window would have to be announced in the middle of the season that is meant to relieve it. The residual probability reflects the fourth consecutive month of deficit inflows and the ACP's demonstrated willingness to move draft and slot steps at two weeks notice. Resolution rule: On 3 November 2026 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ and reads every advisory issued between 10 September 2026 and 31 October 2026 inclusive. The claim resolves YES if at least one such advisory states an effective date on or before 31 October 2026 for either (a) a maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) TFW or less, or (b) a total of daily booking slots across the Panamax and Neopanamax locks of fewer than 32, counted as the sum of the per-lock daily booking slot figures the advisory itself states. It resolves NO otherwise. An advisory that only announces a future effective date after 31 October 2026 does not resolve it YES. An advisory that postpones, suspends or reverses a previously announced reduction does not resolve it YES. A reduction in auction slots, in reservation periods, in transit windows or in draft in the Panamax locks does not resolve it YES. If the register is unreachable on 3 November 2026, the reader retries daily to 10 November 2026 and, failing that, scores it from the ACP press room at https://pancanal.com/en/news/ on the same rule.", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-001, forward item SCL1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0039", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-03", "resolution_source": "Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping register, https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "On 3 November 2026 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ and reads every advisory issued between 10 September 2026 and 31 October 2026 inclusive. The claim resolves YES if at least one such advisory states an effective date on or before 31 October 2026 for either (a) a maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) TFW or less, or (b) a total of daily booking slots across the Panamax and Neopanamax locks of fewer than 32, counted as the sum of the per-lock daily booking slot figures the advisory itself states. It resolves NO otherwise. An advisory that only announces a future effective date after 31 October 2026 does not resolve it YES. An advisory that postpones, suspends or reverses a previously announced reduction does not resolve it YES. A reduction in auction slots, in reservation periods, in transit windows or in draft in the Panamax locks does not resolve it YES. If the register is unreachable on 3 November 2026, the reader retries daily to 10 November 2026 and, failing that, scores it from the ACP press room at https://pancanal.com/en/news/ on the same rule." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "panamas-second-drought", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-284", "brief": "panamas-second-drought", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2027-02-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-SCL-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0040; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the claim that carries the brief's thesis, that the decision-relevant quarter is Q1 2027 rather than Q4 2026. The ACP's own position is that pronounced impacts of a strong El Nino appear more clearly in the subsequent year, its FY2027 budget of 1 September 2026 plans 10,750 deep-draft transits against 13,404 actual in FY2025, and the incoming Administrator said on 8 September 2026 that booking slots could fall to about 29 by February or March 2027 depending on September to November rainfall. The central value of 47.0 ft assumes the postponed 47.5 ft step is taken during the dry season and one further half-foot step follows, which is slower than the 2023 to 2024 descent to 44 ft because Gatun entered this dry season roughly 4.5 ft above its dated September 2023 reading and the water-saving basins and simultaneous lockages activated in December 2025 were not available in 2023; the low bound of 45.0 ft allows for a 2023 to 2024 style collapse and the high bound of 48.0 ft for no further step at all. Resolution rule: On 16 February 2027 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/, identifies the most recent advisory that sets or confirms a maximum authorised draft for the Neopanamax locks with an effective date on or before 15 February 2027, and records the figure in feet TFW that the advisory itself states. Where the advisory states metres only, the reader converts at 1 m equals 3.28084 ft and rounds to one decimal place. That figure is the outcome. If an advisory sets a draft that is superseded by a later advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the later figure governs. If the register carries no Neopanamax draft advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the outcome is the draft last set before 10 September 2026, that is 48.0 ft. The interval is scored as an 80 percent interval: it is hit if the recorded figure falls at or between 45.0 and 48.0 inclusive.", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-001, forward item SCL1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0040", "window_as_stated": "2027-02-16", "resolution_source": "Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping register, https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "On 16 February 2027 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/, identifies the most recent advisory that sets or confirms a maximum authorised draft for the Neopanamax locks with an effective date on or before 15 February 2027, and records the figure in feet TFW that the advisory itself states. Where the advisory states metres only, the reader converts at 1 m equals 3.28084 ft and rounds to one decimal place. That figure is the outcome. If an advisory sets a draft that is superseded by a later advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the later figure governs. If the register carries no Neopanamax draft advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the outcome is the draft last set before 10 September 2026, that is 48.0 ft. The interval is scored as an 80 percent interval: it is hit if the recorded figure falls at or between 45.0 and 48.0 inclusive." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "panamas-second-drought", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 45.0, "central": 47.0, "hi": 48.0, "unit": "feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft" } } ] }