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Economic & Financial Markets.

The economics desk follows repricing events and their transmission: collateral on new rails, and the credit and rate signals marking who absorbs the adjustment.

12reports

32calls open

21graded

4early-warning indicators

Read the latest report Open calls

Every call in this domain, from the day it was made to its deadline. Point at one to read it.

Our latest view

Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027

Gold has fallen from its January record as the Fed turned to hiking, and the December hike the market now expects is largely in the price.

13 October 2026 · AIG-BLK-26-009

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Earlier in this domain

What we are watching

Open calls, soonest first.

Each call was locked with its probability before the outcome was known. A named public source will settle it.

Due 28 Oct · overdue

Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.

65%Due 28 Oct · overdue

Baseline is the most probable path.

65%Due 31 Oct · overdue

The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.

35%Due 31 Oct · overdue

The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.

68%Due 31 Oct · overdue

The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.

78%Due 4 Nov · in 2 d

Euro area headline HICP annual inflation for October 2026 is at or above 3.5% in the Eurostat flash estimate.

55%Due 4 Nov · in 2 d

Euro area core HICP annual inflation, the index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, for October 2026 is at or below 2.7% in the Eurostat flash estimate.

85%Due 5 Nov · in 3 d

EIA reports Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 2026-10-30 above the five-year average.

80%Due 5 Nov · in 3 d

The Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4.00% or higher at the decision of 5 November 2026.

65%

Every call in this domain (53)

28 OctOver 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.65% · overdue
28 OctBaseline is the most probable path.65% · overdue
31 OctThe OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.35% · overdue
31 OctThe three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.68% · overdue
31 OctThe Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.78% · overdue
4 NovEuro area headline HICP annual inflation for October 2026 is at or above 3.5% in the Eurostat flash estimate.55% · in 2 d
4 NovEuro area core HICP annual inflation, the index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, for October 2026 is at or below 2.7% in the Eurostat flash estimate.85% · in 2 d
5 NovEIA reports Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 2026-10-30 above the five-year average.80% · in 3 d
5 NovThe Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4.00% or higher at the decision of 5 November 2026.65% · in 3 d
7 NovAverage hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees rise 3.1 percent or less over the 12 months to October 2026.80% · in 5 d
13 NovThe FAO Food Price Index for October 2026, as first published, is at or above 136.0 points.55% · in 11 d
25 NovEIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at or above 13.90 mb/d.75% · in 23 d
9 DecThe People's Bank of China reports gold reserves at the end of November 2026 higher than at the end of October 2026.85% · in 37 d
10 DecThe upper limit of the federal funds target range is at or above 4.25 percent after the FOMC meeting ending 9 December 2026.75% · in 38 d
11 DecThe FAO Sugar Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 106.4 points.75% · in 39 d
11 DecThe FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 198.6 points.55% · in 39 d
11 DecThe FAO Food Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 140.1 points.20% · in 39 d
11 DecThe US unemployment rate for November 2026 is at or above 4.5 percent.12% · in 39 d
11 DecThe CPI-U all items index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.60% · in 39 d
11 DecThe CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.70% · in 39 d
11 DecReal average hourly earnings of all employees fall over the 12 months to November 2026.80% · in 39 d
11 DecIn November 2026 the CPI-U all items 12-month change exceeds the CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change by at least 0.8 percentage point.65% · in 39 d
16 DecEIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11 below 280.0 million barrels.45% · in 44 d
17 DecThe ECB deposit facility rate is at or above 2.75% after the monetary policy meeting of 17 December 2026.70% · in 45 d
21 DecThe one-year loan prime rate is 3.0% in the December 2026 fixing.85% · in 49 d
23 DecThe EIA daily Europe Brent spot price FOB for 2026-12-18 is at or above 100 USD per barrel.45% · in 51 d
4 JanThe settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is about USD 4280 per troy ounce.range · in 63 d
4 JanThe settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is at or above USD 4650 per troy ounce.20% · in 63 d
5 JanThe total stablecoin market capitalisation on the DefiLlama stablecoins dashboard is at or above 300 billion USD for 31 December 2026.65% · in 64 d
5 JanThe 10-year TIPS real yield for 31 December 2026 is at or above 2.60 percent.70% · in 64 d
10 JanThe Office of the Comptroller of the Currency publishes a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act for OCC-supervised payment stablecoin issuers in the Federal Register on or before 10 January 2027.65% · in 69 d
10 JanThe Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation publishes a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act requirements and standards for FDIC-supervised permitted payment stablecoin issuers in the Federal Register on or before 10 January 2027.40% · in 69 d
31 OctThe Employment Cost Index wages and salaries for civilian workers rise 3.3 percent or less over the 12 months to September 2026.75% · came true
30 OctThe Bank of Japan keeps its uncollateralized overnight call rate target at around 1.25% at the Monetary Policy Meeting ending 30 October 2026.75% · came true
29 OctThe ECB keeps the deposit facility rate at 2.50% at its monetary policy meeting of 29 October 2026.85% · came true
29 OctUS real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 grows at an annual rate of at least 1.0 percent in the BEA advance estimate.80% · came true
29 OctThe FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its meeting ending 28 October 2026.35% · did not
16 OctUS CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).range · came true
16 OctNotices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.85% · came true
15 OctThe New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.70% · did not
14 OctThe US CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.85% · came true
14 OctThe US CPI-U all items index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or above 3.4 percent.60% · came true
10 OctDefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.38% · did not
7 OctEIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.range · did not
6 OctThe October 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US LNG gross exports for 2027 at or above 18.6 Bcf/d.60% · came true
5 OctSeptember 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.38% · came true
2 OctA cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026.55% · did not
2 OctAugust 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.62% · did not
16 SepThe median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.range · did not
16 SepAt least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.65% · did not
16 SepThe median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.range · came true
16 SepThe upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.40% · came true
16 SepThe federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).25% · did not

Early warning

What the Oracle watches here.

Readings computed from public feeds, each held against a threshold set in advance.

State	Indicator	Reading now	Threshold	Source
In breach	Brent crude spot ($/bbl)	$108.52	$60 to $90 (baseline band)	Yahoo Finance · Daily
On watch	Copper spot ($/lb)	$6.52	$3.60 to $5.00	Yahoo Finance · Daily
Normal	UST 2s10s curve	+37 bps	Not deeply inverted	FRED · Daily
Normal	Equity volatility (VIX)	19.0	<20 (calm regime)	Yahoo Finance · Daily