Aegean Intelligence Group
THE AEGEAN REGISTER / STANDING DESK / ECOAEIG-WEB-DESK-ECO · PUBLIC RELEASE · 2026
DeskDESK-marketsEconomic & Financial MarketsCreated 2026-06-03Updated 2026-09-11Standard: AEGEAN-OS v1.3
Research / Economic & Financial Markets desk
STANDING DESK · ECO

Economic & Financial Markets.

The economics desk follows repricing events and the channels that transmit them: sovereign-scale collateral moving onto new rails, municipal reassessment moving into operators' cash positions, and the credit and rate signals that mark who absorbs the adjustment and on whose timetable.

REPORTS: 3 WATCHLIST: 6 INDICATORS COLLECTION: CONTINUOUS LAST PUBLICATION: 2026-07-30
01 · STANDING WATCH
STANDING WATCHLIST
Tokenised treasury AUM migrationWATCH
Issuer reserve disclosure gapSTEADY
Transfer-agent concentrationWATCH
Deposit-bank transmission channelSTEADY
State Board of Equalization scheduling queueWATCH
Davidson County formal appeal volumeWATCH
SCOPE

Sovereign-scale collateral on new rails, municipal reassessment, and the credit and rate signals that mark who absorbs the adjustment.

MONITORED CONTINUOUSLY AGAINST THE APPROVED SOURCE ALLOWLIST.
PUBLISHED WHEN THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A JUDGMENT.
SIGNATURE SERIES · THE YIELD CURVE

Not inverted, and not steep. The flattest normal curve in two decades.

Ten-year Treasury yield minus two-year, month-end. The curve inverted on 6 July 2022, stayed inverted for about 25 months, bottomed at -1.08 points on 3 July 2023, and turned positive on 27 August 2024. It has not printed negative since 5 September 2024. At +0.43 it is positive but historically flat, and 10 basis points flatter than a year ago.

NBER recession 2001NBER recession 2008 to 2009NBER recession 2020-10+1+2+32000 Jan +0.07 pp20002000 Feb -0.11 pp2000 Mar -0.47 pp2000 Apr -0.45 pp2000 May -0.40 pp2000 Jun -0.35 pp2000 Jul -0.26 pp2000 Aug -0.45 pp2000 Sep -0.18 pp2000 Oct -0.17 pp2000 Nov -0.13 pp2000 Dec +0.01 pp2001 Jan +0.57 pp2001 Feb +0.51 pp2001 Mar +0.75 pp2001 Apr +1.05 pp2001 May +1.21 pp2001 Jun +1.17 pp2001 Jul +1.28 pp2001 Aug +1.21 pp2001 Sep +1.74 pp2001 Oct +1.86 pp2001 Nov +1.94 pp2001 Dec +2.00 pp2002 Jan +1.91 pp2002 Feb +1.82 pp2002 Mar +1.70 pp2002 Apr +1.87 pp2002 May +1.86 pp2002 Jun +1.96 pp2002 Jul +2.28 pp2002 Aug +2.00 pp2002 Sep +1.91 pp2002 Oct +2.25 pp2002 Nov +2.14 pp2002 Dec +2.22 pp2003 Jan +2.28 pp2003 Feb +2.18 pp2003 Mar +2.32 pp2003 Apr +2.38 pp2003 May +2.04 pp2003 Jun +2.22 pp2003 Jul +2.69 pp2003 Aug +2.50 pp2003 Sep +2.46 pp2003 Oct +2.48 pp2003 Nov +2.28 pp2003 Dec +2.43 pp2004 Jan +2.32 pp20042004 Feb +2.33 pp2004 Mar +2.26 pp2004 Apr +2.22 pp2004 May +2.12 pp2004 Jun +1.92 pp2004 Jul +1.82 pp2004 Aug +1.72 pp2004 Sep +1.51 pp2004 Oct +1.49 pp2004 Nov +1.34 pp2004 Dec +1.16 pp2005 Jan +0.85 pp2005 Feb +0.77 pp2005 Mar +0.70 pp2005 Apr +0.55 pp2005 May +0.40 pp2005 Jun +0.28 pp2005 Jul +0.26 pp2005 Aug +0.18 pp2005 Sep +0.16 pp2005 Oct +0.17 pp2005 Nov +0.07 pp2005 Dec -0.02 pp2006 Jan -0.01 pp2006 Feb -0.14 pp2006 Mar +0.04 pp2006 Apr +0.20 pp2006 May +0.08 pp2006 Jun -0.01 pp2006 Jul +0.02 pp2006 Aug -0.05 pp2006 Sep -0.07 pp2006 Oct -0.10 pp2006 Nov -0.16 pp2006 Dec -0.11 pp2007 Jan -0.11 pp2007 Feb -0.09 pp2007 Mar +0.07 pp2007 Apr +0.03 pp2007 May -0.02 pp2007 Jun +0.16 pp2007 Jul +0.22 pp2007 Aug +0.39 pp2007 Sep +0.62 pp2007 Oct +0.54 pp2007 Nov +0.93 pp2007 Dec +0.99 pp2008 Jan +1.50 pp20082008 Feb +1.88 pp2008 Mar +1.83 pp2008 Apr +1.48 pp2008 May +1.40 pp2008 Jun +1.36 pp2008 Jul +1.47 pp2008 Aug +1.47 pp2008 Sep +1.85 pp2008 Oct +2.45 pp2008 Nov +1.93 pp2008 Dec +1.49 pp2009 Jan +1.93 pp2009 Feb +2.02 pp2009 Mar +1.90 pp2009 Apr +2.25 pp2009 May +2.55 pp2009 Jun +2.42 pp2009 Jul +2.39 pp2009 Aug +2.43 pp2009 Sep +2.36 pp2009 Oct +2.51 pp2009 Nov +2.54 pp2009 Dec +2.71 pp2010 Jan +2.81 pp2010 Feb +2.80 pp2010 Mar +2.82 pp2010 Apr +2.72 pp2010 May +2.55 pp2010 Jun +2.36 pp2010 Jul +2.39 pp2010 Aug +2.00 pp2010 Sep +2.11 pp2010 Oct +2.29 pp2010 Nov +2.36 pp2010 Dec +2.69 pp2011 Jan +2.84 pp2011 Feb +2.73 pp2011 Mar +2.67 pp2011 Apr +2.71 pp2011 May +2.60 pp2011 Jun +2.73 pp2011 Jul +2.46 pp2011 Aug +2.03 pp2011 Sep +1.67 pp2011 Oct +1.92 pp2011 Nov +1.83 pp2011 Dec +1.64 pp2012 Jan +1.61 pp20122012 Feb +1.68 pp2012 Mar +1.90 pp2012 Apr +1.68 pp2012 May +1.32 pp2012 Jun +1.34 pp2012 Jul +1.28 pp2012 Aug +1.35 pp2012 Sep +1.42 pp2012 Oct +1.42 pp2012 Nov +1.37 pp2012 Dec +1.53 pp2013 Jan +1.75 pp2013 Feb +1.64 pp2013 Mar +1.62 pp2013 Apr +1.48 pp2013 May +1.86 pp2013 Jun +2.16 pp2013 Jul +2.29 pp2013 Aug +2.39 pp2013 Sep +2.31 pp2013 Oct +2.26 pp2013 Nov +2.47 pp2013 Dec +2.66 pp2014 Jan +2.33 pp2014 Feb +2.33 pp2014 Mar +2.29 pp2014 Apr +2.25 pp2014 May +2.11 pp2014 Jun +2.06 pp2014 Jul +2.05 pp2014 Aug +1.87 pp2014 Sep +1.94 pp2014 Oct +1.85 pp2014 Nov +1.71 pp2014 Dec +1.50 pp2015 Jan +1.21 pp2015 Feb +1.37 pp2015 Mar +1.38 pp2015 Apr +1.47 pp2015 May +1.51 pp2015 Jun +1.71 pp2015 Jul +1.53 pp2015 Aug +1.47 pp2015 Sep +1.42 pp2015 Oct +1.41 pp2015 Nov +1.27 pp2015 Dec +1.21 pp2016 Jan +1.18 pp20162016 Feb +0.96 pp2016 Mar +1.05 pp2016 Apr +1.06 pp2016 May +0.97 pp2016 Jun +0.91 pp2016 Jul +0.79 pp2016 Aug +0.78 pp2016 Sep +0.83 pp2016 Oct +0.98 pp2016 Nov +1.26 pp2016 Dec +1.25 pp2017 Jan +1.26 pp2017 Feb +1.14 pp2017 Mar +1.13 pp2017 Apr +1.01 pp2017 May +0.93 pp2017 Jun +0.93 pp2017 Jul +0.96 pp2017 Aug +0.79 pp2017 Sep +0.86 pp2017 Oct +0.78 pp2017 Nov +0.64 pp2017 Dec +0.51 pp2018 Jan +0.58 pp2018 Feb +0.62 pp2018 Mar +0.47 pp2018 Apr +0.46 pp2018 May +0.43 pp2018 Jun +0.33 pp2018 Jul +0.29 pp2018 Aug +0.24 pp2018 Sep +0.24 pp2018 Oct +0.28 pp2018 Nov +0.21 pp2018 Dec +0.21 pp2019 Jan +0.18 pp2019 Feb +0.21 pp2019 Mar +0.14 pp2019 Apr +0.24 pp2019 May +0.19 pp2019 Jun +0.25 pp2019 Jul +0.13 pp2019 Aug +0.00 pp2019 Sep +0.05 pp2019 Oct +0.17 pp2019 Nov +0.17 pp2019 Dec +0.34 pp2020 Jan +0.18 pp20202020 Feb +0.27 pp2020 Mar +0.47 pp2020 Apr +0.44 pp2020 May +0.49 pp2020 Jun +0.50 pp2020 Jul +0.44 pp2020 Aug +0.58 pp2020 Sep +0.56 pp2020 Oct +0.74 pp2020 Nov +0.68 pp2020 Dec +0.80 pp2021 Jan +1.00 pp2021 Feb +1.30 pp2021 Mar +1.58 pp2021 Apr +1.49 pp2021 May +1.44 pp2021 Jun +1.20 pp2021 Jul +1.05 pp2021 Aug +1.10 pp2021 Sep +1.24 pp2021 Oct +1.07 pp2021 Nov +0.91 pp2021 Dec +0.79 pp2022 Jan +0.61 pp2022 Feb +0.39 pp2022 Mar +0.04 pp2022 Apr +0.19 pp2022 May +0.32 pp2022 Jun +0.06 pp2022 Jul -0.22 pp2022 Aug -0.30 pp2022 Sep -0.39 pp2022 Oct -0.41 pp2022 Nov -0.70 pp2022 Dec -0.53 pp2023 Jan -0.69 pp2023 Feb -0.89 pp2023 Mar -0.58 pp2023 Apr -0.60 pp2023 May -0.76 pp2023 Jun -1.06 pp2023 Jul -0.91 pp2023 Aug -0.76 pp2023 Sep -0.44 pp2023 Oct -0.19 pp2023 Nov -0.36 pp2023 Dec -0.35 pp2024 Jan -0.28 pp20242024 Feb -0.39 pp2024 Mar -0.39 pp2024 Apr -0.35 pp2024 May -0.38 pp2024 Jun -0.35 pp2024 Jul -0.20 pp2024 Aug +0.00 pp2024 Sep +0.15 pp2024 Oct +0.12 pp2024 Nov +0.05 pp2024 Dec +0.33 pp2025 Jan +0.36 pp2025 Feb +0.25 pp2025 Mar +0.34 pp2025 Apr +0.57 pp2025 May +0.52 pp2025 Jun +0.52 pp2025 Jul +0.43 pp2025 Aug +0.64 pp2025 Sep +0.56 pp2025 Oct +0.51 pp2025 Nov +0.55 pp2025 Dec +0.71 pp2026 Jan +0.74 pp2026 Feb +0.59 pp2026 Mar +0.51 pp2026 Apr +0.52 pp2026 May +0.47 pp2026 Jun +0.30 pp2026 Jul +0.47 pp2026 Aug +0.43 pp2026Trough -1.08 pp3 July 2023+0.43 pp4 Aug 2026
+0.43 pp
Latest, 4 August 2026
Positive since 6 Sep 2024
-1.08 pp
Trough, 3 July 2023
Deepest inversion since 1981
~25 months
Sustained inversion, Jul 2022 to Aug 2024
541 negative business days
SOURCE · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED series T10Y2Y, from US Treasury constant maturity yields. Recession bands from NBER via FRED series USREC.DATA THROUGH · 4 August 2026
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