Research by domain
Defense & Security.
The defense desk tracks the industrial base beneath rearmament: feedstock concentration, counter-UAS authority, and principal exposure at the data layer.
11reports
34calls open
8graded
Our latest view
The Defense Ledger: War, Bills and Budgets from the Lame Duck to 2027
Congress is likely to leave defense on another stopgap into the new year, pass the authorization act in December on a negotiated text as it has in each recent…
2 November 2026 · AIG-DEF-26-012
Earlier in this domain
- 11 October 2026 · AIG-DEF-26-011The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year?
- 11 October 2026 · AIG-DEF-26-010Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers
- 28 September 2026 · AIG-DEF-26-009Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest
What we are watching
Open calls, soonest first.
Each call was locked with its probability before the outcome was known. A named public source will settle it.
Due 31 Oct · overdue
At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2), meaning conduct described at 6 U.S.C. 124n(b)(1)(C), (D) or (F) and not detection, warning or confiscation by hand, occurring anywhere in the United States between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, is publicly reported by 31 October 2026.
20%Due 7 Nov · in 5 dThe Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.
18%Due 9 Nov · in 7 dThe USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker places the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the US Central Command area of responsibility in an edition published from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09.
50%Due 16 Nov · in 14 dThe Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.
40%Due 16 Nov · in 14 dTotal Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from USAspending.gov on 16 November 2026, will be 5.9 billion United States dollars, with an interval of 5.0 billion to 8.5 billion United States dollars.
rangeDue 1 Dec · in 29 dThe Office of Foreign Assets Control designates at least one additional vessel under Iran-related sanctions authorities between 2026-10-11 and 2026-11-30.
80%Due 2 Dec · in 30 dThe IAEA Board of Governors adopts a new resolution on Iran at any session held between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.
45%Due 2 Dec · in 30 dThe cumulative number of merchant vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.
rangeDue 2 Dec · in 30 dThe cumulative number of commercial vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.
rangeEvery call in this domain (42)
- 31 OctAt least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2), meaning conduct described at 6 U.S.C. 124n(b)(1)(C), (D) or (F) and not detection, warning or confiscation by hand, occurring anywhere in the United States between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, is publicly reported by 31 October 2026.20% · overdue
- 7 NovThe Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.18% · in 5 d
- 9 NovThe USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker places the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the US Central Command area of responsibility in an edition published from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09.50% · in 7 d
- 16 NovThe Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.40% · in 14 d
- 16 NovTotal Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from USAspending.gov on 16 November 2026, will be 5.9 billion United States dollars, with an interval of 5.0 billion to 8.5 billion United States dollars.range · in 14 d
- 1 DecThe Office of Foreign Assets Control designates at least one additional vessel under Iran-related sanctions authorities between 2026-10-11 and 2026-11-30.80% · in 29 d
- 2 DecThe IAEA Board of Governors adopts a new resolution on Iran at any session held between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.45% · in 30 d
- 2 DecThe cumulative number of merchant vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.range · in 30 d
- 2 DecThe cumulative number of commercial vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.range · in 30 d
- 8 DecThe Senate agrees to a full text of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027, whether S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended or a negotiated text moved on any vehicle, on or before 7 December 2026.25% · in 36 d
- 12 DecA further continuing resolution or a full-year appropriations act that funds the Department of Defense beyond 11 December 2026 is enacted on or before 11 December 2026.80% · in 40 d
- 15 DecFiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.60% · in 43 d
- 27 DecViolent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation takes place on at least two consecutive nights in a single town or city in the United Kingdom, Ireland or an EU Member State between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.40% · in 55 d
- 27 DecFewer than 25,000 people are recorded arriving in the UK by small boat in the calendar year 2026 up to and including 26 December 2026.55% · in 55 d
- 27 DecA completed attack that national authorities describe as Islamist or jihadist terrorism kills at least one person in an EU Member State or the UK between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.50% · in 55 d
- 31 DecCongress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.10% · in 59 d
- 31 DecThe United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026, that initial Grade A nitrocellulose production capability has been achieved at Radford Army Ammunition Plant.15% · in 59 d
- 31 DecA public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War Inspector General or Government Accountability Office product, issued on or before 31 December 2026, states a 155mm load, assemble and pack rate of 63,000 rounds per month or more for any month up to and including November 2026.12% · in 59 d
- 31 DecThe Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or specific systems, is published in a publicly readable form not requiring law-enforcement credentials, on or before 31 December 2026.55% · in 59 d
- 31 DecFull-year FY2027 appropriations for the Department of Defense, by a regular defense appropriations act, an omnibus or a full-year continuing resolution, are enacted on or before 31 December 2026.25% · in 59 d
- 31 DecThe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into law on or before 31 December 2026.65% · in 59 d
- 31 DecCongress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least USD 50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.8% · in 59 d
- 1 JanOn 31 December 2026, laws enacted on or before that day appropriate funds for the Department of Defense through a date later than 31 January 2027.45% · in 60 d
- 4 JanThe governments of the United States and Iran both publicly confirm a signed agreement that provides for lifting or suspending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31.15% · in 63 d
- 4 JanUS Central Command announces at least one US strike on a target on Iranian land territory carried out between 2026-11-04 and 2026-12-31.40% · in 63 d
- 4 JanIAEA inspectors carry out an inspection, confirmed by the agency, at any facility at the Fordow, Natanz or Isfahan nuclear sites, the three sites struck in June 2025, on a date between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31.10% · in 63 d
- 7 JanThe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into law on or before 3 January 2027.65% · in 66 d
- 31 JanThe blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is renewed, extended, or replaced by a categorical or standing authorisation covering the same class of operations, with effect on or before 31 January 2027.75% · in 90 d
- 19 JunBaseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.65% · in 229 d
- 19 JunThe most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.65% · in 229 d
- 14 JulThe most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving the footprint decisive.65% · in 254 d
- 3 JunThe single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a close second. Each carries a multi-year qualified-supplier path no supplemental appropriation can shortcut inside 24 months.85% · in 579 d
- 31 DecAuthorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year. Today's appropriations do not fix today's magazine.85% · in 790 d
- 31 MarEven with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.85% · in 1245 d
- 15 OctNo PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).96% · came true
- 9 OctA joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.10% · did not
- 9 OctThe United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.8% · did not
- 5 OctUnited States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.50% · came true
- 16 SepThe SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.65% · did not
- 20 AugThe strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.85% · came true
- 20 Augbroker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.65% · came true
- 14 JulThe 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most visible public signal of the underlying NC and energetics pathology.85% · did not
Reports
Every report in this domain.
Newest first. 11 in all.
The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year?
Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers
Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest
The Lead Agency Rule
Feedstock Before Firepower
The Rearmament Ledger
The Footprint Before the Threat
The Authority Gap
The Protection Premium
The Western Munitions BottleneckOther domains