Research by domain
Mining & Manufacturing.
The minerals desk reads export-control regimes and processing chokepoints in critical-mineral supply, where refining, not extraction, sets the constraint.
13reports
39calls open
9graded
Our latest view
Factory data that will not turn: three high-confidence calls for December
The three factory series that resolve in the first half of December are each set on a course that one month of data is unlikely to reverse: the US purchasing…
3 November 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-013
Earlier in this domain
- 1 November 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-012The November Mineral Cliff: what lapses on 10 and 27 November and what it means for factories
- 29 October 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-011Can the West Make Its Own Magnets? US rare-earth processing and magnet capacity against the 2027 demand gap
- 28 October 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-010Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound
What we are watching
Open calls, soonest first.
Each call was locked with its probability before the outcome was known. A named public source will settle it.
Due 6 Nov · in 3 d
The monthly change in US manufacturing employment for October 2026.
rangeDue 10 Nov · in 7 dMOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.
92%Due 10 Nov · in 7 dChina's Ministry of Commerce or General Administration of Customs publishes, on or before 10 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 10 November 2026 the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.
75%Due 10 Nov · in 7 dGerman total production in industry for September 2026 is lower than in August.
65%Due 10 Nov · in 7 dGerman production excluding energy and construction for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.
45%Due 13 Nov · in 10 dMP Materials' NdPr production for the third quarter of 2026 is at or above 1,000 metric tons.
75%Due 13 Nov · in 10 dMP Materials' Magnetics segment revenue for the third quarter of 2026.
rangeDue 17 Nov · in 14 dFed primary metals output for October 2026 is lower than in September 2026.
55%Due 17 Nov · in 14 dFed primary metals capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 70.0 percent.
85%Every call in this domain (48)
- 6 NovThe monthly change in US manufacturing employment for October 2026.range · in 3 d
- 10 NovMOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.92% · in 7 d
- 10 NovChina's Ministry of Commerce or General Administration of Customs publishes, on or before 10 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 10 November 2026 the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.75% · in 7 d
- 10 NovGerman total production in industry for September 2026 is lower than in August.65% · in 7 d
- 10 NovGerman production excluding energy and construction for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.45% · in 7 d
- 13 NovMP Materials' NdPr production for the third quarter of 2026 is at or above 1,000 metric tons.75% · in 10 d
- 13 NovMP Materials' Magnetics segment revenue for the third quarter of 2026.range · in 10 d
- 17 NovFed primary metals output for October 2026 is lower than in September 2026.55% · in 14 d
- 17 NovFed primary metals capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 70.0 percent.85% · in 14 d
- 17 NovFed total industry capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 77.0 percent.50% · in 14 d
- 20 NovThe Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the stay of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities.70% · in 17 d
- 23 NovThe eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.85% · in 20 d
- 23 NovThe eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026, as first published.range · in 20 d
- 28 NovChina's Ministry of Commerce publishes, on or before 27 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 27 November 2026 the suspension of its December 2024 ban on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States.70% · in 25 d
- 29 NovReuters reports, from 11 November 2026 to 29 November 2026, that China is applying the export licensing requirements of Ministry of Commerce Announcement 61 of 2025 to products made outside China.15% · in 26 d
- 30 NovThe November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief. The licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users all remain in place.65% · in 27 d
- 1 DecThe ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.85% · in 28 d
- 1 DecThe ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 52.0.85% · in 28 d
- 11 DecTSMC's consolidated revenue for November 2026 is at or above NT$450 billion.92% · in 38 d
- 16 DecFed primary metals capacity utilization for November 2026 is below 70.0 percent.85% · in 43 d
- 31 DecThe US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures close on 31 December 2026 falls inside our range.range · in 58 d
- 31 DecOn 31 December 2026 the US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures price, converted to tonnes, is at least twice the LME Steel HRC FOB China (Argus) price.85% · in 58 d
- 31 DecThe Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau issues its final approval of the environmental impact report for the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 December 2026.80% · in 58 d
- 31 DecThe closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on 31 December 2026.range · in 58 d
- 7 JanThe standard Section 232 rate of 50 percent on Annex I-A steel and aluminium articles of all origins remains in force through 7 January 2027.88% · in 65 d
- 7 JanA Section 232 rate below 50 percent for primary aluminium of Canadian origin, available to all Canadian producers rather than only approved investors, is published by 7 January 2027.20% · in 65 d
- 7 JanCommerce adds further derivative articles to the Section 232 duties following the August 2026 request for comments, published by 7 January 2027.50% · in 65 d
- 27 JanA law is enacted that postpones or suspends the 1 January 2027 prohibition in 10 U.S.C. 4872 on Defense Department contracts for NdFeB magnets mined, refined or separated in China.20% · in 85 d
- 31 JanCATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January 2027.45% · in 89 d
- 26 MayAcross all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.65% · in 204 d
- 3 JunThe combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action. Each regime is statutorily entrenched in a distinct legal system; the political consensus underwriting each spans more than one electoral cycle.65% · in 212 d
- 3 JunThe lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month horizon.65% · in 212 d
- 31 DecA mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.65% · in 423 d
- 31 DecThe gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional capital is announced in that window.65% · in 789 d
- 8 JulThe realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.65% · in 978 d
- 31 DecThe 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with current EU dependency shares on China.65% · in 1519 d
- 31 DecAcross all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the buyer's position, and none closes the gap outright.85% · in 1519 d
- 31 DecEven the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.65% · in 3345 d
- 31 DecThe decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the structural gap persisting on that measure regardless of how the mining picture evolves.65% · in 3345 d
- 2 NovThe ISM prices index for October 2026 is at or above 70.0.75% · came true
- 2 NovThe ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 53.0.70% · came true
- 31 OctChina's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as first published.range · came true
- 31 OctChina's official new export orders sub-index for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.35% · did not
- 31 OctChina's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.38% · did not
- 16 OctTotal Fed industrial production for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.55% · came true
- 16 OctFed manufacturing output for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.60% · came true
- 15 OctEuro area industrial production for August 2026 is higher than in July.65% · did not
- 10 OctMOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.25% · did not
Reports
Every report in this domain.
Newest first. 13 in all.
The November Mineral Cliff: what lapses on 10 and 27 November and what it means for factories
Can the West Make Its Own Magnets? US rare-earth processing and magnet capacity against the 2027 demand gap
Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound
Precious and Primary Metals Into Year End
Europe's Industrial Recession Test
Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall
China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table
The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs
Forty-Seven Days to November 10
The Rare-Earth Midstream
The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack
Critical Minerals Under PressureOther domains