Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk.
The infrastructure desk covers power grids, ports, subsea cables and the programs that finance them, read through whether they survive catastrophic stress.
The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction
PJM's base capacity auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year is likely to clear at its price cap for a fourth straight time, because the shortage that pushed the…
Open calls, soonest first.
Each call was locked with its probability before the outcome was known. A named public source will settle it.
The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic discussion of 12 November 2026 keeps the El Nino Advisory in force and reports a weekly Nino-3.4 anomaly of +2.0 °C or more.
80%Due 13 Nov · in 10 dThe BLS producer price index for transformers and power regulators (series WPU1174, not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as first published.
rangeDue 19 Nov · in 16 dLower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026, in the weekly storage report released on 19 November 2026, is at or above the five-year average for that week.
70%Due 19 Nov · in 16 dLower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026 will be about 3,900 Bcf.
rangeDue 30 Nov · in 27 dUS commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 3.0 percent above January to September 2025 in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.
85%Due 30 Nov · in 27 dUS all-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 1.5 percent above January to September 2025 in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.
75%Due 30 Nov · in 27 dThe year-to-date growth of US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 exceeds the year-to-date growth of US all-sector retail sales over the same months by at least 1.0 percentage point in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.
80%Due 1 Dec · in 28 dAt least one Atlantic hurricane other than Isaias forms between 9 October 2026 and 30 November 2026.
35%Due 1 Dec · in 28 dThe total number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, counted at the season's end on 30 November 2026.
rangeEvery call in this domain (24)
- 12 NovThe Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic discussion of 12 November 2026 keeps the El Nino Advisory in force and reports a weekly Nino-3.4 anomaly of +2.0 °C or more.80% · in 9 d
- 13 NovThe BLS producer price index for transformers and power regulators (series WPU1174, not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as first published.range · in 10 d
- 19 NovLower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026, in the weekly storage report released on 19 November 2026, is at or above the five-year average for that week.70% · in 16 d
- 19 NovLower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026 will be about 3,900 Bcf.range · in 16 d
- 30 NovUS commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 3.0 percent above January to September 2025 in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.85% · in 27 d
- 30 NovUS all-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 1.5 percent above January to September 2025 in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.75% · in 27 d
- 30 NovThe year-to-date growth of US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 exceeds the year-to-date growth of US all-sector retail sales over the same months by at least 1.0 percentage point in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.80% · in 27 d
- 1 DecAt least one Atlantic hurricane other than Isaias forms between 9 October 2026 and 30 November 2026.35% · in 28 d
- 1 DecThe total number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, counted at the season's end on 30 November 2026.range · in 28 d
- 18 DecThe December 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast of total US electricity consumption in 2027.range · in 45 d
- 31 DecThe RTO clearing price of PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year equals that auction's price cap.70% · in 58 d
- 31 DecThe shortfall of capacity cleared in PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, with fixed resource requirement commitments, against that auction's reliability requirement, in MW.range · in 58 d
- 31 DecPJM publishes the results of its base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year on or before 31 December 2026.90% · in 58 d
- 4 JanThe total number of entries in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date added on or before 31 December 2026.range · in 62 d
- 5 JanFERC issues an order on the merits on at least one regional operator's response to its June 2026 large-load show cause orders by 31 December 2026.40% · in 63 d
- 8 JanThe President declares a major disaster for the State of Florida for Hurricane Isaias on or before 31 December 2026.80% · in 66 d
- 26 MayBaseline is the most likely twelve-month path.85% · in 204 d
- 26 MayBaseline is the most likely twelve-month path.85% · in 204 d
- 26 MayBaseline is the most likely twelve-month path.85% · in 204 d
- 31 DecParametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.65% · in 423 d
- 31 DecDuring the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.85% · in 1884 d
- 30 OctGE Vernova reports gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements of 120 GW or more as at 30 September 2026.78% · came true
- 30 OctThe BLS producer price index for switchgear, switchboard and industrial controls equipment (series WPU1175, not seasonally adjusted) for September 2026, as first published, is 430.247 or higher.72% · came true
- 28 OctUS Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23 October 2026.60% · came true
What the Oracle watches here.
Readings computed from public feeds, each held against a threshold set in advance.
| State | Indicator | Reading now | Threshold | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day) | 0 events | Within seasonal norm | USGS · Hourly |
| Normal | Active tropical cyclones on key lanes | 0 on key lanes (2 active) | None on critical lanes | GDACS · Daily |
| Normal | Volcanic / ashfall aviation alerts | 0 volcanic alerts at Orange or Red | No major aviation impact | GDACS · Daily |
| On watch | Flood / drought disaster declarations | 3 flood or drought alerts at Orange or Red | Baseline | GDACS · Daily |
Updated 3 November 2026
Every report in this domain.
Newest first. 9 in all.
Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December
The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand
Winter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of Cold
The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks
Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing
The Ground Underneath the Map
The Uninsurable Frontier
When the Models Met Reality