Political Risk & Governance.
The political risk desk reads structural political exposure: resource-nationalist cycles, sanctions architecture, state transitions, and the capture environments where public competitions and licenses are actually decided.
Resource-nationalist cycles, sanctions architecture, state transitions, and the capture environments where competitions are decided.
PUBLISHED WHEN THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A JUDGMENT.
Filings peaked in 2018 and have fallen by a third. The recent years are undercounts.
Known treaty-based investor-state arbitrations initiated per year. The peak is 93 in 2018; 2025 stands at 56. Read the last five years with care: UNCTAD states that annual counts first reported between 2015 and 2022 have been revised upward by about 20 percent over time, and that fully confidential arbitrations never enter the count at all. The recent bars are drawn hollow because they will grow.
Every report this desk has published.
THE DESK CODE IS POL, AND EVERYTHING PUBLISHED FROM NOW ON CARRIES IT. NOTHING ALREADY PUBLISHED IS RENUMBERED.
| NO. | DATE | REPORT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIG-GOV-26-005 | 2026-09-11 | After the DumaDoes Putin's post-election calendar open a ceasefire window before winter? | CURRENT |
| AIG-GOV-26-006 | 2026-09-11 | Three Percent on PaperWill the Legislative Yuan fund Lai's NT$1 trillion defence line before the November locals? | CURRENT |
| AIG-GOV-26-004 | 2026-07-16 | The Field Before the RFPCapture Intelligence Basics: The Competition Is Usually Decided Before the Solicitation Publishes | CURRENT |
| AIG-GOV-26-003 | 2026-06-19 | Who Owns the Risk?Physical, Cyber, and Insider Threats Converged Into One Surface. Accountability for It Did Not. The Case for a Single Owner of Int | CURRENT |
| AIG-GOV-26-002 | 2026-06-16 | Venezuela After MaduroThe Reversible Opening: Sanctions Recalibration, a Pledged Asset Base, and the Essequibo Tail Risk | PERISHABLE |
| AIG-GOV-26-001 | 2026-06-03 | Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0The Indemnification Regime Has Become Politically Negotiable, and the Capital-Exporting Bloc Is Withdrawing | CURRENT |
Every claim on this desk is scored.
The published record is the visible output of standing collection, and every forward claim it makes is locked and scored with BRIER. The same instrument can keep the record of your own decisions.
Explore BRIER →