Supply Chain & Logistics.

The supply chain desk holds standing watch on the corridors and carriers that move global trade: transit authority and war-risk pricing at the maritime chokepoints, the fleets and subsea infrastructure sanctions touch, and freight and inland-corridor exposure as coverage expands beyond the sea lanes.

REPORTS: 2 WATCHLIST: 4 INDICATORS COLLECTION: CONTINUOUS LAST PUBLICATION: 2026-06-03

01 · STANDING WATCH

STANDING WATCHLIST

Hormuz transit authority / MOU trackELEVATED

War-risk premia, listed areasWATCH

Subsea incident clusters, Baltic & North SeaWATCH

Sanctions-touched fleet movementsSTEADY

SCOPE

Chokepoint transit authority and war-risk pricing, sanctions-touched fleets, subsea infrastructure, and freight exposure as coverage expands inland.

MONITORED CONTINUOUSLY AGAINST THE APPROVED SOURCE ALLOWLIST.
PUBLISHED WHEN THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A JUDGMENT.

SIGNATURE SERIES · CHOKEPOINT DIVERSION

Two chokepoints lost half their oil. One route around a continent absorbed it.

Crude oil and petroleum liquids transiting each chokepoint, million barrels a day. Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez and SUMED route each carry roughly half what they carried in 2023. Traffic around the Cape of Good Hope rose by about 3 million barrels a day. The oil did not stop moving. It went the long way, and someone is paying for the extra days at sea.

2023

First half 2025, higher than 2023

First half 2025, lower than 2023

-5.1

Bab el-Mandeb, million b/d against 2023

LNG transit fell to zero

+2.9

Cape of Good Hope, million b/d against 2023

11% of all seaborne oil

~25%

Share of seaborne oil still crossing Hormuz

About 20% of world consumption

SOURCE · US Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints, from EIA analysis of Vortexa tanker tracking and the Panama Canal Authority. Panama figures are fiscal years.DATA THROUGH · First half 2025, published 3 March 2026

02 · THE DESK RECORD

Every report this desk has published.

DOCUMENTS CARRY THE PREFIX OF THE LANE THEY WERE PUBLISHED IN. AIG-MAR IS THE RECORD OF THIS DESK AS MARITIME AND SHIPPING.
THE DESK CODE IS SCL, AND EVERYTHING PUBLISHED FROM NOW ON CARRIES IT. NOTHING ALREADY PUBLISHED IS RENUMBERED.

NO.	DATE	REPORT	STATUS
AIG-SCL-26-002	2026-09-14	70% and CountingThe second EU ETS maritime surrender, the measurement gap around it, and what 100% costs on a Cape routing	CURRENT
AIG-SCL-26-003	2026-09-14	$700,000 a DayThe Hormuz tanker bubble, the price of the strait, and the asymmetric payoff of a corridor deal	CURRENT
AIG-SCL-26-001	2026-09-11	Panama's Second DroughtIs 2026 a 2023 Repeat? Not Yet on the Water, Already in the Authority's Own Budget, and the Quarter That Binds Is Q1 2027	CURRENT
AIG-MAR-26-002	2026-06-03	The Attribution GapHow the West's Subsea Infrastructure Became a Politically Costless Target, the Repair-Fleet Constraint No One Has Re-Priced, and W	CURRENT
AIG-MAR-26-001	2026-06-01	The Re-Priced CorridorSovereign transit authority, the $40 billion backstop no one is using, and what the Hormuz reopening actually costs.	PERISHABLE

03 · THE OTHER DESKS

DEFDefense & Security ECOEconomic & Financial Markets MFGMining & Manufacturing INFInfrastructure & Catastrophe Risk POLPolitical Risk & Governance

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