Supply Chain & Logistics.
The supply chain desk holds standing watch on the corridors and carriers that move global trade: chokepoint transit, war-risk pricing, subsea infrastructure.
Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4
The US holiday import peak ran from late summer and is fading into the season, on restocking, firm consumer demand and cargo shifted to the largest port; the total…
Open calls, soonest first.
Each call was locked with its probability before the outcome was known. A named public source will settle it.
The advance estimate of US retail and food services sales for October 2026 is at least 5.0 percent above October 2025.
85%Due 17 Nov · in 14 dIn the advance retail sales release for October 2026, the twelve-month growth of retail and food services sales excluding gasoline stations is at least 1.0 percentage point below the twelve-month growth of total retail and food services sales.
75%Due 17 Nov · in 14 dThe US total business inventories to sales ratio for September 2026 is 1.37 or lower.
85%Due 27 Nov · in 24 dThe composite of Drewry's World Container Index in the assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be about USD 3,800 per 40ft container.
rangeDue 27 Nov · in 24 dThe Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 6,500 per 40ft container.
60%Due 27 Nov · in 24 dThe Shanghai to Rotterdam rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 3,337 per 40ft container, its level on 8 October 2026.
60%Due 27 Nov · in 24 dThe seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for October 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report, as first published, whatever the method, is about USD 125 billion.
rangeDue 27 Nov · in 24 dThe advance estimate of US retail inventories for October 2026 is less than 6.0 percent above October 2025.
80%Due 1 Dec · in 28 dAcross all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.
65%Every call in this domain (31)
- 17 NovThe advance estimate of US retail and food services sales for October 2026 is at least 5.0 percent above October 2025.85% · in 14 d
- 17 NovIn the advance retail sales release for October 2026, the twelve-month growth of retail and food services sales excluding gasoline stations is at least 1.0 percentage point below the twelve-month growth of total retail and food services sales.75% · in 14 d
- 17 NovThe US total business inventories to sales ratio for September 2026 is 1.37 or lower.85% · in 14 d
- 27 NovThe composite of Drewry's World Container Index in the assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be about USD 3,800 per 40ft container.range · in 24 d
- 27 NovThe Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 6,500 per 40ft container.60% · in 24 d
- 27 NovThe Shanghai to Rotterdam rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 3,337 per 40ft container, its level on 8 October 2026.60% · in 24 d
- 27 NovThe seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for October 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report, as first published, whatever the method, is about USD 125 billion.range · in 24 d
- 27 NovThe advance estimate of US retail inventories for October 2026 is less than 6.0 percent above October 2025.80% · in 24 d
- 1 DecAcross all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.65% · in 28 d
- 1 DecTotal daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks of the Panama Canal in effect on 24 November 2026 are 33 or more.70% · in 28 d
- 8 DecThe total non-Iranian-linked transits of the Strait of Hormuz for the latest complete week reported in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Strait of Hormuz Brief published on or after 24 November 2026.range · in 35 d
- 8 DecThe preliminary weekly count of Bab el-Mandeb transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief published on or after 24 November 2026 is 257 or more, at or above its January 2026 weekly average.65% · in 35 d
- 8 DecThe weekly count of Suez Canal transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief published on or after 24 November 2026 is 270 or more.60% · in 35 d
- 8 DecThe US goods trade deficit with China for October 2026, Census basis, in the full trade release is less than USD 20.0 billion.75% · in 35 d
- 11 DecNet customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 15 billion.70% · in 38 d
- 11 DecGross customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 22 billion.80% · in 38 d
- 15 DecConditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly announcing an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz on or before 15 November 2026, the first Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published on or after the fourteenth day following that announcement will be at least 25 percent below the last Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published before the announcement date.85% · in 42 d
- 28 DecThe maximum authorised draft in the Panama Canal Neopanamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 is 49.0 feet or more.55% · in 55 d
- 28 DecIndia announces a new ban, export duty or minimum export price on non-basmati rice exports between 9 October 2026 and 28 December 2026.15% · in 55 d
- 28 DecTotal daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 are 32 or more.65% · in 55 d
- 28 DecThe seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for November 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report is more than USD 115 billion.65% · in 55 d
- 31 DecThe next European Commission Carbon Market Report, or any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026, states that shipping companies surrendered allowances for less than 99% of the surrendering requirements for the 2025 compliance cycle.25% · in 58 d
- 16 FebThe maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.range · in 105 d
- 3 JunThe attribution gap is durable. Across five major incident clusters in four years, no Western investigation has produced a finalized public state-actor attribution, and the institutional and legal frameworks that would close the gap have not changed.85% · in 212 d
- 3 JunWe judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.65% · in 212 d
- 3 JunAcross all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not change on a 12-month horizon.65% · in 212 d
- 3 NovThe Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) or lower, or reduces total daily booking slots below 32.20% · did not
- 28 OctUS goods imports for September 2026 in the Census Bureau's advance report are USD 320.0 billion or more.75% · came true
- 10 OctThe Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China route, as published in the Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report dated 9 October 2026, will be $690,000 per day, within an interval of $320,000 to $1,020,000 per day.range · did not
- 2 OctThe EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU common auction held on 30 September 2026, or for the last EU common auction held before that date if none is held on it, will be EUR 85.00 per tonne of carbon dioxide, within an interval of EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 per tonne.range · came true
- 2 OctThe Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).15% · did not
What the Oracle watches here.
Readings computed from public feeds, each held against a threshold set in advance.
| State | Indicator | Reading now | Threshold | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | Suez Canal 7-day transit volume vs baseline | 98% of baseline | >70% of baseline | IMF PortWatch · Daily |
| Normal | Strait of Hormuz transit volume | 100% of baseline | >90% of baseline | IMF PortWatch · Daily |
| Normal | Cape of Good Hope reroute volume | +1% vs baseline | Within 30% of baseline | IMF PortWatch · Daily |
Updated 3 November 2026
Every report in this domain.
Newest first. 11 in all.
The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End
Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts
Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter
Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits
$700,000 a Day
70% and Counting
Both Banks of the Strait
Panama's Second Drought
The Attribution Gap
The Re-Priced Corridor