Aegean Intelligence Group
THE AEGEAN REGISTER / STANDING DESK / SCLAEIG-WEB-DESK-SCL · PUBLIC RELEASE · 2026
Research / Supply Chain & Logistics desk
STANDING DESK · SCL

Supply Chain & Logistics.

The supply chain desk holds standing watch on the corridors and carriers that move global trade: transit authority and war-risk pricing at the maritime chokepoints, the fleets and subsea infrastructure sanctions touch, and freight and inland-corridor exposure as coverage expands beyond the sea lanes.

REPORTS: 2 WATCHLIST: 4 INDICATORS COLLECTION: CONTINUOUS LAST PUBLICATION: 2026-06-03
01 · STANDING WATCH
STANDING WATCHLIST
Hormuz transit authority / MOU trackELEVATED
War-risk premia, listed areasWATCH
Subsea incident clusters, Baltic & North SeaWATCH
Sanctions-touched fleet movementsSTEADY
SCOPE

Chokepoint transit authority and war-risk pricing, sanctions-touched fleets, subsea infrastructure, and freight exposure as coverage expands inland.

MONITORED CONTINUOUSLY AGAINST THE APPROVED SOURCE ALLOWLIST.
PUBLISHED WHEN THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A JUDGMENT.
SIGNATURE SERIES · CHOKEPOINT DIVERSION

Two chokepoints lost half their oil. One route around a continent absorbed it.

Crude oil and petroleum liquids transiting each chokepoint, million barrels a day. Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez and SUMED route each carry roughly half what they carried in 2023. Traffic around the Cape of Good Hope rose by about 3 million barrels a day. The oil did not stop moving. It went the long way, and someone is paying for the extra days at sea.

0.05.010.015.020.025.0Strait of Malacca 2023 24.0Strait of Malacca FIRST HALF 2025 23.2Strait of Malacca23.2-0.8Strait of Hormuz 2023 21.8Strait of Hormuz FIRST HALF 2025 20.9Strait of Hormuz20.9-0.9Cape of Good Hope 2023 6.2Cape of Good Hope FIRST HALF 2025 9.1Cape of Good Hope9.1+2.9Bab el-Mandeb 2023 9.3Bab el-Mandeb FIRST HALF 2025 4.2Bab el-Mandeb4.2-5.1Suez Canal and SUMED 2023 8.8Suez Canal and SUMED FIRST HALF 2025 4.9Suez Canal and SUMED4.9-3.9Danish Straits 2023 5.0Danish Straits FIRST HALF 2025 4.9Danish Straits4.9-0.1Turkish Straits 2023 3.5Turkish Straits FIRST HALF 2025 3.7Turkish Straits3.7+0.2Panama Canal 2023 2.2Panama Canal FIRST HALF 2025 2.3Panama Canal2.3+0.1MILLION BARRELS A DAY
2023
First half 2025, higher than 2023
First half 2025, lower than 2023
-5.1
Bab el-Mandeb, million b/d against 2023
LNG transit fell to zero
+2.9
Cape of Good Hope, million b/d against 2023
11% of all seaborne oil
~25%
Share of seaborne oil still crossing Hormuz
About 20% of world consumption
SOURCE · US Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints, from EIA analysis of Vortexa tanker tracking and the Panama Canal Authority. Panama figures are fiscal years.DATA THROUGH · First half 2025, published 3 March 2026
02 · THE DESK RECORD

Every report this desk has published.

DOCUMENTS CARRY THE PREFIX OF THE LANE THEY WERE PUBLISHED IN. AIG-MAR IS THE RECORD OF THIS DESK AS MARITIME AND SHIPPING.
THE DESK CODE IS SCL, AND EVERYTHING PUBLISHED FROM NOW ON CARRIES IT. NOTHING ALREADY PUBLISHED IS RENUMBERED.
NO.DATEREPORTSTATUS
AIG-MAR-26-0022026-06-03The Attribution GapHow the West's Subsea Infrastructure Became a Politically Costless Target, the Repair-Fleet Constraint No One Has Re-Priced, and WCURRENT
AIG-MAR-26-0012026-06-01The Re-Priced CorridorSovereign transit authority, the $40 billion backstop no one is using, and what the Hormuz reopening actually costs.PERISHABLE
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