CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“A new Israeli government wins a Knesset confidence vote on or before 22 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Deadlines that will slip and incumbents who will hold: three political-risk calls for December, published on 3 November 2026, and entered the ledger on 3 November 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 22 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked3 Nov
Resolves by22 Dec
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2026-12-22Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Deadlines that will slip and incumbents who will hold: three political-risk calls for December"
Window as statedon or before 22 December 2026
How it will be settledHaaretz: YES if Haaretz reports that a government formed after the 27 October 2026 election won a Knesset confidence vote on or before 22 December 2026; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familydeadlines-that-will-slip-and-incumbents-who-will-hold-three; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-11-03, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.