CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“On 31 December 2026, laws enacted on or before that day appropriate funds for the Department of Defense through a date later than 31 January 2027.”
This claim comes from The Defense Ledger: War, Bills and Budgets from the Lame Duck to 2027, published on 2 November 2026, and entered the ledger on 2 November 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.45 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 45 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 1 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked2 Nov
Resolves by1 Jan
Today
On the Defense & Security Horizon
From the reportThe Defense Ledger: War, Bills and Budgets from the Lame Duck to 20272 November 2026 · AIG-DEF-26-012Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-454A further continuing resolution or a full-year appropriations act that funds the Department of Defense beyond 11 December 2026 is enacted on or before 11 December 2026.80% · resolves in 40 d
- CLM-2026-455Full-year FY2027 appropriations for the Department of Defense, by a regular defense appropriations act, an omnibus or a full-year continuing resolution, are enacted on or before 31 December 2026.25% · resolves in 59 d
- CLM-2026-456The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into law on or before 31 December 2026.65% · resolves in 59 d
- CLM-2026-457The cumulative number of commercial vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.a range · resolves in 30 d
- CLM-2026-458Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least USD 50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.8% · resolves in 59 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.45Locked probability
2027-01-01Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Defense Ledger: War, Bills and Budgets from the Lame Duck to 2027"
Window as statedOn 31 December 2026
How it will be settledCongress.gov: YES if Congress.gov shows that continuing or full-year appropriations enacted on or before 31 December 2026 fund the Department of Defense through a date later than 31 January 2027; NO if the latest such date in enacted law on 31 December 2026 is 31 January 2027 or earlier, or if no appropriations for the department are in force on that day.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-defense-ledger-war-bills-and-budgets-from-the-lame-duck; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-11-02, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.