CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“TSMC's consolidated revenue for November 2026 is at or above NT$450 billion.”
This claim comes from Factory data that will not turn: three high-confidence calls for December, published on 3 November 2026, and entered the ledger on 3 November 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.92 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 92 in 100. It resolves by 11 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked3 Nov
Resolves by11 Dec
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.92Locked probability
2026-12-11Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Factory data that will not turn: three high-confidence calls for December"
Window as statedup to and including 11 December 2026
How it will be settledSEC EDGAR filings: YES if TSMC's first monthly revenue report for November 2026, filed on Form 6-K, states consolidated revenue of NT$450 billion or more, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise, or if no such report is filed by 2026-12-11.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyfactory-data-that-will-not-turn-three-high-confidence-calls; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-11-03, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.