The November Mineral Cliff: what lapses on 10 and 27 November and what it means for factories
Two Chinese suspensions and one US stay run out within three weeks, and the wider truce does not name them
Three dated suspensions protect factory inputs this month, and only the wider truce has been extended in public. We judge that both Chinese suspensions are more likely than not to be rolled forward, but the licensing that already restricts heavy rare earths, gallium, germanium and antimony stays in force whatever happens, so buyers should plan for scarcity, not for relief.
3 calls from this report, among 45 in Mining & Manufacturing.
Each line is one call in the domain, from the day it was written to the day it resolves. This report's calls are lit; point at any line to read it.
- CLM-2026-452The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the stay of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities.70% · resolves in 19 d
- CLM-2026-451China's Ministry of Commerce publishes, on or before 27 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 27 November 2026 the suspension of its December 2024 ban on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States.70% · resolves in 27 d
- CLM-2026-453Reuters reports, from 11 November 2026 to 29 November 2026, that China is applying the export licensing requirements of Ministry of Commerce Announcement 61 of 2025 to products made outside China.15% · resolves in 28 d
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-451 | China's Ministry of Commerce publishes, on or before 27 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 27 November 2026 the suspension of its December 2024 ban on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States. | 0.70 | 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-28 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-452 | The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the stay of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities. | 0.70 | 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-20 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-453 | Reuters reports, from 11 November 2026 to 29 November 2026, that China is applying the export licensing requirements of Ministry of Commerce Announcement 61 of 2025 to products made outside China. | 0.15 | 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-29 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
The November cliff is real on paper and modest in substance. Beijing has every reason to roll both suspensions forward to match the January truce date, because letting them lapse would hand Washington a grievance before the next round. But the suspensions only ever removed the newest layer of control. The older licensing regimes, which already throttle heavy rare earths and the minor metals, were never suspended, so a factory's real exposure is to licence discretion and ex-China prices, not to the calendar.
Open-source intelligence current through 1 November 2026. The publication carries a 10-entry source registry, explicit confidence tags, limitations, and deterministic resolution rules for its forward claims.
The source tiers, estimative language, forward-claim rule, scoring, and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.