CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“Reuters reports, from 11 November 2026 to 29 November 2026, that China is applying the export licensing requirements of Ministry of Commerce Announcement 61 of 2025 to products made outside China.”
This claim comes from The November Mineral Cliff: what lapses on 10 and 27 November and what it means for factories, published on 1 November 2026, and entered the ledger on 1 November 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 29 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked1 Nov
Resolves by29 Nov
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
From the reportThe November Mineral Cliff: what lapses on 10 and 27 November and what it means for factories1 November 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-012Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-451China's Ministry of Commerce publishes, on or before 27 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 27 November 2026 the suspension of its December 2024 ban on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States.70% · resolves in 27 d
- CLM-2026-452The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the stay of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities.70% · resolves in 19 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2026-11-29Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The November Mineral Cliff: what lapses on 10 and 27 November and what it means for factories"
Window as statedfrom 11 November 2026 up to and including 29 November 2026
How it will be settledReuters: YES if a Reuters report published from 11 November 2026 to 29 November 2026 states that China is applying the licensing requirement of Announcement 61 of 2025 to foreign-made products; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-november-mineral-cliff-what-lapses-on-10-and-27; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-11-01, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.