CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“A law is enacted that postpones or suspends the 1 January 2027 prohibition in 10 U.S.C. 4872 on Defense Department contracts for NdFeB magnets mined, refined or separated in China.”
This claim comes from Can the West Make Its Own Magnets? US rare-earth processing and magnet capacity against the 2027 demand gap, published on 29 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 29 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.20 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 20 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 27 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked29 Oct
Resolves by27 Jan
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.20Locked probability
2027-01-27Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Can the West Make Its Own Magnets? US rare-earth processing and magnet capacity against the 2027 demand gap"
Window as stated27 Jan 2027
How it will be settledCongress.gov: YES if, on or before 27 January 2027, Congress.gov shows enacted into law a measure that postpones the effective date of that prohibition or suspends it for all or most contracts; NO otherwise, and waivers granted under existing authority do not count.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familycan-the-west-make-its-own-magnets-us-rare-earth-processing; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-29, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.