CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“MP Materials' NdPr production for the third quarter of 2026 is at or above 1,000 metric tons.”
This claim comes from Can the West Make Its Own Magnets? US rare-earth processing and magnet capacity against the 2027 demand gap, published on 29 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 29 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.75 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 75 in 100. It resolves by 13 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked29 Oct
Resolves by13 Nov
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
From the reportCan the West Make Its Own Magnets? US rare-earth processing and magnet capacity against the 2027 demand gap29 October 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-011Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-449MP Materials' Magnetics segment revenue for the third quarter of 2026.a range · resolves in 13 d
- CLM-2026-450A law is enacted that postpones or suspends the 1 January 2027 prohibition in 10 U.S.C. 4872 on Defense Department contracts for NdFeB magnets mined, refined or separated in China.20% · resolves in 88 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.75Locked probability
2026-11-13Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Can the West Make Its Own Magnets? US rare-earth processing and magnet capacity against the 2027 demand gap"
Window as stated13 Nov 2026
How it will be settledSEC EDGAR: YES if the NdPr production figure for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 in MP Materials' third-quarter 2026 results, filed on SEC EDGAR on or before 13 November 2026, is at or above 1,000 metric tons, as first published, whatever the method; NO if it is lower or if no such filing appears by that date.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familycan-the-west-make-its-own-magnets-us-rare-earth-processing; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-29, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.