Aegean Intelligence Group
THE AEGEAN REGISTER / AIG-BLK-26-010AIG-BLK-26-010 · PUBLIC RELEASE · 2026
ReportAIG-BLK-26-010Economic & Financial MarketsCreated 2026-11-02Updated 2026-11-02Standard: AEGEAN-OS v1.3
Research / Economic & Financial Markets desk / AIG-BLK-26-010
ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS · ASSESSMENT · CURRENT

Hiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 2028

One more hike in December, a long hold through 2027, and cuts once the oil shock has worked through core prices

The Fed paused in October but did not change direction. The most likely end of this cycle is one more quarter-point hike in December, a hold through 2027 while the oil shock works through core prices, and first cuts in 2028. The risk to that path is not the headline figure but core PCE, which already runs above target, and whether the shock reaches wages.

ISSUED 2 NOVEMBER 2026  ·  ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS  ·  AEGEAN INTELLIGENCE GROUP  ·  AUDITED AGAINST AEGEAN-OS
THE DOCUMENT
NumberAIG-BLK-26-010
Product IDPMR-2026-1102-GLB-010
ProductAssessment
Issued2026-11-02
Pages15
DistributionPublic release
TimelinessCURRENT
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Aegean Intelligence Group, “Hiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 2028,” AIG-BLK-26-010, The Aegean Register, 2 November 2026.

Hiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 2028 cover
Cover
On the record

5 calls from this report, among 58 in Economic & Financial Markets.

Each line is one call in the domain, from the day it was written to the day it resolves. This report's calls are lit; point at any line to read it.

  1. CLM-2026-467The core PCE price index 12-month change for October 2026 is at or above 3.0 percent.80% · resolves in 23 d
  2. CLM-2026-464The median projection of the federal funds rate for the end of 2027 in the December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections is at or above 4.1 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
  3. CLM-2026-465The CPI-U all items 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
  4. CLM-2026-466The CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.7 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
  5. CLM-2026-463The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield for 31 December 2026.a range · resolves in 63 d
FORWARD CLAIMS · DATED TO PUBLICATION · SCORED ON THE SCORECARD →
IDStatementpMade onResolves byStatusOutcome
CLM-2026-463The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield for 31 December 2026.4.45 to 5.45 percent
(central 4.95)		2026-11-032027-01-05Locked
CLM-2026-464The median projection of the federal funds rate for the end of 2027 in the December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections is at or above 4.1 percent.0.702026-11-032026-12-10Locked
CLM-2026-465The CPI-U all items 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.0.702026-11-032026-12-10Locked
CLM-2026-466The CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.7 percent.0.702026-11-032026-12-10Locked
CLM-2026-467The core PCE price index 12-month change for October 2026 is at or above 3.0 percent.0.802026-11-032026-11-26Locked

A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.

THE CENTRAL JUDGMENT
KEY JUDGMENTS
Bottom line

The Fed is hiking into a supply shock that is still building, and it is looking through the energy-driven headline to core PCE and long-run expectations. The committee will most likely take the range to 4.00-4.25 percent in December, hold it through 2027 while the oil price unwinds and its effect works through core prices, and begin cutting only in 2028.^1,2 Two things would change that path: a pass-through of energy costs into core prices and wages, which would add hikes and raise the odds of a hard landing, or an early reopening of Gulf supply, which would let the Fed stop at the current range and cut sooner.

KJ-01The cycle most likely ends with one more quarter-point hike in December and a hold through 2027, with first cuts no earlier than 2028. The two-year yield leans above that path and prices a higher end point than the committee's median, so the market is the main dissent from this judgment rather than support for it. The October dissents for a hike and the September median path, which shows one more move this year and none next year, carry the judgment.MODERATE
KJ-02The committee is looking through the energy-driven headline figure and setting policy on core PCE and long-run expectations. On that measure core inflation is above target and projected to rise this year, so the room to stop after one more move is thin and a second hike early next year is a live risk. Core PCE runs above core CPI and above the goal, the September projections put it higher at year-end and two voters dissented for a hike, while long-run market expectations remain near target.MODERATE
KJ-03Oil sets the end date of the cycle mainly through its pass-through to core prices, with the labour market as the likelier trigger for an earlier end. The official energy outlook has Brent falling through 2027 while the projected first cut comes in 2028, a lag of about a year in which the committee waits for core PCE to follow the headline down, and that outlook is a single forecast that spot Brent already exceeds. The committee projects no cut in the year the oil unwind is largest and eases only once core PCE is projected near target, which puts the weight on core rather than on the oil price itself.MODERATE
KJ-04The risk of a hard landing within two years is real but not yet confirmed in the data. Hiring has slowed sharply, real wages are falling and real spending was flat in September, while output grew strongly in the third quarter, so the signal is mixed.LOW
KJ-05Long yields will stay high into year-end whether or not the Fed hikes in December, where high means the ten-year yield closing the year inside the band of claim C-5. Most of the ten-year yield reflects the expected path of the policy rate, which the committee projects flat through next year, and a measured term premium adds to it; the supply effect of the refunding is not yet known. The ten-year yield stands near five percent and the Board's term premium estimate is close to one percentage point, and a December hike that signals a hold leaves the expected path little changed.^9,13MODERATE
SOURCES AND LIMITS

Open-source intelligence current through 2 November 2026. The publication carries a 16-entry source registry, explicit confidence tags, limitations, and deterministic resolution rules for its forward claims.

SOURCE REGISTRY: 16 ENTRIES15 PAGESTIMELINESS: CURRENT

The source tiers, estimative language, forward-claim rule, scoring, and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.

CONNECTED RECORD
ASSESSMENTEconomic & Financial Markets deskContinue through this publication line.SCORECARDForward claimsInspect the locked probabilities and resolution rules.METHODOLOGYHow this publication is sourced and scoredEvidence tiers, confidence, claims, and corrections.
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Desk (1)
Series a claim resolves against (0)

No claim on this report names a series the Dashboard carries.