CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The CPI-U all items 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 2028, published on 3 November 2026, and entered the ledger on 3 November 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.70 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 70 in 100. It resolves by 10 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked3 Nov
Resolves by10 Dec
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportHiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 20282 November 2026 · AIG-BLK-26-010Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-463The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield for 31 December 2026.a range · resolves in 63 d
- CLM-2026-464The median projection of the federal funds rate for the end of 2027 in the December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections is at or above 4.1 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
- CLM-2026-466The CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.7 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
- CLM-2026-467The core PCE price index 12-month change for October 2026 is at or above 3.0 percent.80% · resolves in 23 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.70Locked probability
2026-12-10Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Hiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 2028"
Window as statedfor the reference month November 2026, as published on 10 December 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Labor Statistics: The all items CPI-U 12-month percent change, not seasonally adjusted, for November 2026, as printed in the BLS release of 10 December 2026, as first published, whatever the method. YES if it is at or above 3.5 percent. NO if it is below.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock-part-two-how-the-2026-fed-cycle; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-11-03, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.