CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield for 31 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 2028, published on 3 November 2026, and entered the ledger on 3 November 2026. The firm locked a range of 4.45 to 5.45 percent with a central estimate of 4.95; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 5 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked3 Nov
Resolves by5 Jan
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportHiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 20282 November 2026 · AIG-BLK-26-010Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-464The median projection of the federal funds rate for the end of 2027 in the December 2026 Summary of Economic Projections is at or above 4.1 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
- CLM-2026-465The CPI-U all items 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
- CLM-2026-466The CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.7 percent.70% · resolves in 37 d
- CLM-2026-467The core PCE price index 12-month change for October 2026 is at or above 3.0 percent.80% · resolves in 23 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
4.45 to 5.45 percent (central 4.95)Locked range
2027-01-05Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Hiking Into a Supply Shock, Part Two: How the 2026 Fed Cycle Ends, December 2026 to 2028"
Window as statedfor 31 December 2026
How it will be settledFederal Reserve Economic Data: the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield, series DGS10, for 2026-12-31, in percent, as first published, scored by whether it lies inside the interval.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock-part-two-how-the-2026-fed-cycle; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-11-03, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.