Research / Governance & Geopolitical Structure desk
STANDING DESK · GOV
Governance & Geopolitical Structure.
The governance desk reads structural political risk: resource-nationalist cycles, sanctions architecture, state transitions, and the capture environments where public competitions are decided.
REPORTS: 4
WATCHLIST: 4 INDICATORS
COLLECTION: CONTINUOUS
LAST PUBLICATION: 2026-07-16
01 · STANDING WATCH
STANDING WATCHLIST
Resource-nationalism wave 3 cohortELEVATED
Venezuela opening reversibilityWATCH
Capture environments, federal cycleSTEADY
Sanctions architecture driftWATCH
SCOPE
Resource nationalism, sanctions architecture, state transitions, capture environments.
MONITORED CONTINUOUSLY AGAINST THE APPROVED SOURCE ALLOWLIST.
PUBLISHED WHEN THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A JUDGMENT.
PUBLISHED WHEN THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A JUDGMENT.
02 · THE DESK RECORD
Every report this desk has published.
| NO. | DATE | REPORT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIG-GOV-26-004 | 2026-07-16 | The Field Before the RFPCapture Intelligence Basics: The Competition Is Usually Decided Before the Solicitation Publishes | CURRENT |
| AIG-GOV-26-003 | 2026-06-19 | Who Owns the Risk?Physical, Cyber, and Insider Threats Converged Into One Surface. Accountability for It Did Not. The Case for a Single Owner of Int | CURRENT |
| AIG-GOV-26-002 | 2026-06-16 | Venezuela After MaduroThe Reversible Opening: Sanctions Recalibration, a Pledged Asset Base, and the Essequibo Tail Risk | PERISHABLE |
| AIG-GOV-26-001 | 2026-06-03 | Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0The Indemnification Regime Has Become Politically Negotiable, and the Capital-Exporting Bloc Is Withdrawing | CURRENT |
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