BRIER BY AEIG · CHANGELOG
The instrument changes in the open.
Every change to how claims are locked, resolved and scored is dated and listed here, with a plain answer to the question a reader of the Scorecard should ask first: did this change the score?
EVERY DATED CHANGE TO THE INSTRUMENT
One row per change, newest first. The last column says whether the change touched a claim, a probability, a resolution, the scoring rule or the band table. A change that did not cannot have moved the score.
| Date | Label | What changed | Affects scoring? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Instrument change: forward-claim standard and scoring rule | The forward-claim standard in Methodology chapter 08 was reworded. The scoring rule in Methodology chapter 09 was reworded. See it → By Zacharias. Why: Methodology brought to the Aegean Standard v1.7 and the Record and Scoring Rules v1.7: five tests before a claim locks, the founders' ruling of 23 September 2026 on corrections and void, and the scoring rule as section 9 states it. | YES |
| 2026-09-10 | Native score and integrity record | The headline score now includes only BRIER-native claims locked no later than publication. Legacy prospective and retrospective entries remain public on separate tracks. The instrument now publishes ledger and claim fingerprints, content-addressed snapshots, selection counts, learning roles and conservative claim families under Record integrity. See it → | YES |
| 2026-09-09 | Scorecard reader opener | The Scorecard now opens by defining a claim, the probability, the four statuses and the Brier score for a reader who has never met the firm, before the first figure appears. See it → | NO |
| 2026-09-09 | Era 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal | BRIER documented as a system: the instrument panel drawn from the same ledger as the Scorecard, how it works, and this changelog. The ledger is untouched. See it → | NO |
| 2026-09-09 | Era 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log | One page per public claim, and the Log of every dated event on the record as a page, an RSS feed and a JSON file. The ledger is untouched. See it → | NO |
| 2026-09-09 | Era 4, Phase 2: series pages | One page per series the Dashboard watches, 44 today, with its chart, its source and tier, its package and citation line, and the claims that resolve against it. The ledger is untouched. See it → | NO |
| 2026-09-09 | Era 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal | The Intelligence Portal front, the registry of every report, claim, series, dataset and desk, the header band on every object page, and site search. The ledger is untouched. See it → | NO |
| 2026-09-08 | LOW band aligned to 0.55 | The LOW band moved from 0.50 to 0.55 to match the default the firm's calibration engine has run on since June 2026. No locked claim carried a LOW band, so no score changed. See it → | YES |
| 2026-09-08 | Forward-claim standard, first application | The forward-claim standard was written into Methodology chapter 08 and applied to the register: three tests for a claim to lock, wording and resolution rules, the void condition, and the band-to-probability table (HIGH 0.85, MODERATE 0.65, LOW 0.50 as first set). 37 claims locked from 19 dated publications. See it → | YES |
| 2026-09-08 | Forward benchmark on the ledger | The seven-item forward benchmark locked on 9 July 2026 entered the public ledger under its own page, with publication and entry dates both 9 July because it was locked contemporaneously. Two quantity items carry locked ranges and sit outside the Brier rule. See it → | NO |
| 2026-09-08 | Contested state | A claim whose outcome is contested between sources of equal standing stays open with the contest written into its note, for the founders to rule on; until then it adds nothing to the score. First applied to CLM-2026-157. See it → | YES |
Each entry is also an event on the Log. Entries up to 10 September 2026 were written by hand and name no person. Since 23 September 2026 the site build writes an entry itself whenever the scoring rule, the band table, the tests a claim must pass or the headline scope changes, and the change is not published until the entry names the person who made it and why. Nothing on this table is edited after the fact.