{ "schema": "aeig-registry@1", "generated": "2026-09-12", "standard": "AEGEAN-OS v1.3", "counts": { "total": 161, "by_type": { "report": 30, "claim": 77, "series": 44, "dataset": 4, "desk": 6 }, "by_desk_type": { "defense": { "report": 7, "claim": 24, "series": 0, "dataset": 0, "desk": 1 }, "infrastructure": { "report": 3, "claim": 5, "series": 4, "dataset": 0, "desk": 1 }, "manufacturing": { "report": 4, "claim": 13, "series": 0, "dataset": 0, "desk": 1 }, "markets": { "report": 6, "claim": 18, "series": 23, "dataset": 1, "desk": 1 }, "political-risk": { "report": 6, "claim": 10, "series": 5, "dataset": 1, "desk": 1 }, "supply-chain": { "report": 3, "claim": 7, "series": 12, "dataset": 1, "desk": 1 }, "firm": { "report": 1, "claim": 0, "series": 0, "dataset": 1, "desk": 0 } } }, "types": [ "report", "claim", "series", "dataset", "desk" ], "desks": { "defense": "Defense & Security", "infrastructure": "Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk", "manufacturing": "Mining & Manufacturing", "markets": "Economic & Financial Markets", "political-risk": "Political Risk & Governance", "supply-chain": "Supply Chain & Logistics" }, "objects": [ { "id": "AIG-GOV-26-005", "type": "report", "slug": "after-the-duma", "url": "/research/after-the-duma/", "title": "After the Duma", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The post-election calendar opens a talks window and a coercion window at the same time, with the second at least as well documented as the first.", "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "AIG-GOV-26-004", "type": "report", "slug": "capture-field-read", "url": "/research/capture-field-read/", "title": "The Field Before the RFP", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-07-16", "updated": "2026-07-16", "summary": "A federal competition is largely decided before the RFP publishes.", "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "AIG-INS-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "cat-models-002", "url": "/research/cat-models-002/", "title": "When the Models Met Reality", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-05-26", "summary": "Catastrophe repricing, carrier retreat, and the public balance sheet.", "links": [ "DESK-infrastructure" ] }, { "id": "AIG-DEF-26-003", "type": "report", "slug": "counter-uas", "url": "/research/counter-uas/", "title": "The Authority Gap", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-06-19", "summary": "Drone incursions over US bases, airports and stadiums are routine, but until the December 2025 SAFER SKIES Act only four federal agencies could stop one.", "links": [ "DESK-defense" ] }, { "id": "AIG-DEF-26-007", "type": "report", "slug": "feedstock-before-firepower", "url": "/research/feedstock-before-firepower/", "title": "Feedstock Before Firepower", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "Primary evidence shows assembly constraining today's 155mm rate, metal parts constraining the path to scale, and energetics sitting beneath both.", "links": [ "DESK-defense" ] }, { "id": "AIG-MIN-26-004", "type": "report", "slug": "forty-seven-days-to-november-10", "url": "/research/forty-seven-days-to-november-10/", "title": "Forty-Seven Days to November 10", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The licensing regime has two separable layers: the suspended October 2025 controls and the still-operative April 2025 base layer.", "links": [ "DESK-manufacturing" ] }, { "id": "AIG-INS-26-003", "type": "report", "slug": "ground-004", "url": "/research/ground-004/", "title": "The Ground Underneath the Map", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-05-26", "summary": "Reference-frame modernization, vertical land motion, and the hidden basis risk in insurance.", "links": [ "DESK-infrastructure" ] }, { "id": "AIG-ECO-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "url": "/research/hiking-into-a-supply-shock/", "title": "Hiking Into a Supply Shock", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Four central banks deciding inside nine days can look like a synchronized turn.", "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "AIG-MAR-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "hormuz-002", "url": "/research/hormuz-002/", "title": "The Re-Priced Corridor", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-06-01", "updated": "2026-06-01", "summary": "The Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iran's sovereign transit authority, the unused $40 billion reinsurance backstop, and what war-risk insurance actually charges.", "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "AIG-GOV-26-003", "type": "report", "slug": "integrated-risk", "url": "/research/integrated-risk/", "title": "Who Owns the Risk?", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-06-19", "summary": "Physical, cyber and insider threats converged into one surface while accountability stayed split.", "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "AIG-MIN-26-002", "type": "report", "slug": "mineral-export-controls", "url": "/research/mineral-export-controls/", "title": "The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-06-03", "summary": "MOFCOM licensing, EU CRMA, US BIS rules and Indonesian downstreaming operate at once on overlapping chains: more binding bottlenecks than in fifteen years.", "links": [ "DESK-manufacturing" ] }, { "id": "AIG-MIN-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "minerals-001", "url": "/research/minerals-001/", "title": "Critical Minerals Under Pressure", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-05-26", "summary": "What the China critical-minerals export-licensing regime actually controls, where Western supply chains break, and which decisions have windows closing.", "links": [ "DESK-manufacturing" ] }, { "id": "AIG-DEF-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "munitions-bottleneck", "url": "/research/munitions-bottleneck/", "title": "The Western Munitions Bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-06-03", "summary": "Single-source feedstock, a solid-rocket-motor duopoly, five-prime concentration and a TSMC-dependent chip layer cap the Western magazine at 30 to 60 days.", "links": [ "DESK-defense" ] }, { "id": "AIG-SCL-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "panamas-second-drought", "url": "/research/panamas-second-drought/", "title": "Panama's Second Drought", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "On 4 September 2026 the Panama Canal Authority did the opposite of what the market was positioned for: it postponed the reduction of Neopanamax draft to 47.5 ft…", "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "AIG-DEF-26-004", "type": "report", "slug": "principal-digital-exposure", "url": "/research/principal-digital-exposure/", "title": "The Footprint Before the Threat", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-07-14", "updated": "2026-07-14", "summary": "A principal's targeting package can be assembled from open sources alone.", "links": [ "DESK-defense" ] }, { "id": "AIG-DEF-26-002", "type": "report", "slug": "principal-protection", "url": "/research/principal-protection/", "title": "The Protection Premium", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-06-19", "summary": "Executive protection became a priced, disclosed function while the threat moved to the data layer and no single owner emerged for the combined exposure.", "links": [ "DESK-defense" ] }, { "id": "AIG-MIN-26-003", "type": "report", "slug": "rare-earth-midstream", "url": "/research/rare-earth-midstream/", "title": "The Rare-Earth Midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-07-08", "updated": "2026-07-08", "summary": "China refines 91% of rare earths and makes 94% of magnets.", "links": [ "DESK-manufacturing" ] }, { "id": "AIG-DEF-26-006", "type": "report", "slug": "rearmament-ledger", "url": "/research/rearmament-ledger/", "title": "The Rearmament Ledger", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "The Western munitions rebuild is constrained by an unenacted funding vehicle, a continuing-resolution freeze, allied demand, and capacity that converts after 2026.", "links": [ "DESK-defense" ] }, { "id": "AIG-GOV-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "resource-nationalism", "url": "/research/resource-nationalism/", "title": "Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-06-03", "summary": "The third resource-nationalism wave breaks the legal architecture of investor protection: blocs exit ISDS, indemnification becomes politically negotiable.", "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "AIG-BLK-26-002", "type": "report", "slug": "rwa-tokenization", "url": "/research/rwa-tokenization/", "title": "The Tokenised Treasury Migration", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-06-03", "summary": "Tokenised money-market funds and US Treasury wrappers have moved from pilot to institutional scale.", "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "AIG-MUN-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "september-letter", "url": "/research/september-letter/", "title": "The September Letter", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-07-30", "updated": "2026-08-03", "summary": "A decision-window read on the 2026 Davidson County appeal cycle: when the decision notices arrive, and the 45 days after each letter an owner can prepare for.", "links": [ "DESK-markets" ], "series_flag": "The Letter", "letter_number": 1 }, { "id": "AIG-RIB-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "sixty-votes-or-bust", "url": "/research/sixty-votes-or-bust/", "title": "Sixty Votes, One Honest Unknown", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The official record is precise about procedure and silent about who will supply the votes.", "links": [ "DESK-markets" ], "display_type": "RIB" }, { "id": "AIG-BLK-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "stablecoin-treasuries", "url": "/research/stablecoin-treasuries/", "title": "Stablecoin Treasury Linkage", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-06-03", "summary": "USD stablecoin issuers are now a non-bank Treasury-bill demand block at the scale of mid-sized sovereign holders.", "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "AIG-MAR-26-002", "type": "report", "slug": "subsea-vulnerability", "url": "/research/subsea-vulnerability/", "title": "The Attribution Gap", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-06-03", "summary": "Seafloor infrastructure sits in an attribution gap: five incident clusters since 2022, zero finalized state-actor attributions, an unpriced repair fleet.", "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "AIG-ECO-26-002", "type": "report", "slug": "the-first-warsh-hike", "url": "/research/the-first-warsh-hike/", "title": "The First Warsh Hike?", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The August prints split the September signal: final-demand producer prices rose 0.4 percent, while three-month annualised core CPI slowed to 1.97 percent., Three…", "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "AIG-DEF-26-008", "type": "report", "slug": "the-lead-agency-rule", "url": "/research/the-lead-agency-rule/", "title": "The Lead Agency Rule", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Section 124.10(c) decides the practical value of the new state and local counter-drone authority at UNGA-81: where federal and SLTT operations overlap, the federal…", "links": [ "DESK-defense" ] }, { "id": "AIG-GOV-26-006", "type": "report", "slug": "three-percent-on-paper", "url": "/research/three-percent-on-paper/", "title": "Three Percent on Paper", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Taiwan's headline defence ratio, legislative calendar, and cross-strait activity point to three different clocks, none of which should be collapsed into one signal.", "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "AIG-INS-26-002", "type": "report", "slug": "uninsurable-003", "url": "/research/uninsurable-003/", "title": "The Uninsurable Frontier", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-05-26", "summary": "Parametric, ILS, and the capital-markets repartition of catastrophe risk.", "links": [ "DESK-infrastructure" ] }, { "id": "AIG-GOV-26-002", "type": "report", "slug": "venezuela-after-maduro", "url": "/research/venezuela-after-maduro/", "title": "Venezuela After Maduro", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-06-16", "updated": "2026-06-16", "summary": "The post-Maduro opening: a reversible, US-administered revenue arrangement over sovereign authority, a pledged asset base, and the Essequibo border.", "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "AIG-FWD-26-001", "type": "report", "slug": "forward-benchmark", "url": "/research/forward-benchmark/", "title": "The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1", "desk": null, "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "Seven questions the firm locked on 9 July 2026 with probabilities or ranges and named public resolution sources, resolving from 18 September 2026.", "links": [] }, { "id": "DESK-defense", "type": "desk", "slug": "defense", "url": "/research/desks/defense/", "title": "Defense & Security", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The defense desk tracks the industrial base beneath rearmament: feedstock concentration, counter-UAS authority, and principal exposure at the data layer.", "links": [] }, { "id": "DESK-infrastructure", "type": "desk", "slug": "infrastructure", "url": "/research/desks/infrastructure/", "title": "Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-05-26", "summary": "The infrastructure desk covers power grids, ports, subsea cables and the programs that finance them, read through whether they survive catastrophic stress.", "links": [] }, { "id": "DESK-manufacturing", "type": "desk", "slug": "manufacturing", "url": "/research/desks/manufacturing/", "title": "Mining & Manufacturing", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The minerals desk reads export-control regimes and processing chokepoints in critical-mineral supply, where refining, not extraction, sets the constraint.", "links": [] }, { "id": "DESK-markets", "type": "desk", "slug": "markets", "url": "/research/desks/markets/", "title": "Economic & Financial Markets", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The economics desk follows repricing events and their transmission: collateral on new rails, and the credit and rate signals marking who absorbs the adjustment.", "links": [] }, { "id": "DESK-political-risk", "type": "desk", "slug": "political-risk", "url": "/research/desks/political-risk/", "title": "Political Risk & Governance", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The political risk desk reads structural political exposure: resource-nationalist cycles, sanctions architecture, state transitions and capture environments.", "links": [] }, { "id": "DESK-supply-chain", "type": "desk", "slug": "supply-chain", "url": "/research/desks/supply-chain/", "title": "Supply Chain & Logistics", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-06-01", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The supply chain desk holds standing watch on the corridors and carriers that move global trade: chokepoint transit, war-risk pricing, subsea infrastructure.", "links": [] }, { "id": "PKG-claims-ledger", "type": "dataset", "slug": "claims-ledger", "url": "/data/#pkg-claims-ledger", "title": "The public claim ledger", "desk": null, "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Every forward claim on the firm's public Scorecard, one row per claim: the statement in the brief's own words, the probability or range the firm locked, the dates…", "source": "Aegean Intelligence Group, from the published briefs and the forward benchmark of record. Resolutions cite the public source in the evidence columns.", "tier": "T2 (the firm's own record)", "rows": 77, "version": "2026-09-12", "sha256": "54fb821f323aa8dd54136ec9e628fdf5c189ce1157ab17ebcf8441dabee76a53", "csv": "/data/packages/claims-ledger/data.csv", "datasheet": "/data/packages/claims-ledger/DATASHEET.md", "links": [] }, { "id": "PKG-macro-and-curve", "type": "dataset", "slug": "macro-and-curve", "url": "/data/#pkg-macro-and-curve", "title": "Macro, curve and market history", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "The macro and Treasury curve series the Dashboard draws (FRED) and the daily market history behind its asset panels (Yahoo Finance), in one long table.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve FRED (T1) for the macro and curve series; Yahoo Finance (T4) for the market OHLC series.", "tier": "T1 and T4", "rows": 24949, "version": "2026-09-12", "sha256": "fd2a07365bd40c32a567859e0aff2cf4956bfa76095a5dfa3df4aee9d749e1fd", "csv": "/data/packages/macro-and-curve/data.csv", "datasheet": "/data/packages/macro-and-curve/DATASHEET.md", "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "type": "dataset", "slug": "maritime-chokepoints", "url": "/data/#pkg-maritime-chokepoints", "title": "Maritime chokepoint transits", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Daily vessel transit counts through eight maritime chokepoints, as published by the IMF PortWatch platform and collected by the firm's dashboard pipeline.", "source": "IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint transit series, read from its public feature services.", "tier": "T4", "rows": 22400, "version": "2026-09-12", "sha256": "e6bba9dcddf3a4c9a48b1eb25a9172229494835858d4e00b0c178fc62b0aaf53", "csv": "/data/packages/maritime-chokepoints/data.csv", "datasheet": "/data/packages/maritime-chokepoints/DATASHEET.md", "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "PKG-ofac-delta", "type": "dataset", "slug": "ofac-delta", "url": "/data/#pkg-ofac-delta", "title": "OFAC SDN delta series", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "One row per collection day: the size of the U.S.", "source": "U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control, SDN list export.", "tier": "T1", "rows": 5, "version": "2026-09-12", "sha256": "580a02aa32bb69d9c56f900bff367cfd4811f7af4c191797918a22f0f60ae1fd", "csv": "/data/packages/ofac-delta/data.csv", "datasheet": "/data/packages/ofac-delta/DATASHEET.md", "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-CPI", "type": "series", "slug": "cpi", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/cpi/", "title": "CPI (All Urban)", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-08-01", "summary": "CPI (All Urban), idx, from U.S.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "idx", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 91, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-DFII10", "type": "series", "slug": "dfii10", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/dfii10/", "title": "10Y Real Yield", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-02", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "10Y Real Yield, %, from U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED), collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-10.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1924, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-DGS10", "type": "series", "slug": "dgs10", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/dgs10/", "title": "UST 10Y", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-02", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "UST 10Y, %, from U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED), collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-10.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1924, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-DGS2", "type": "series", "slug": "dgs2", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/dgs2/", "title": "UST 2Y", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-02", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "UST 2Y, %, from U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED), collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-10.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1924, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-DGS30", "type": "series", "slug": "dgs30", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/dgs30/", "title": "UST 30Y", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-02", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "UST 30Y, %, from U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED), collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-10.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1924, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-HY_OAS", "type": "series", "slug": "hy_oas", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/hy_oas/", "title": "HY Credit OAS", "desk": "markets", "created": "2023-06-19", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "HY Credit OAS, %, from U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED), collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-10.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 848, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-IG_OAS", "type": "series", "slug": "ig_oas", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/ig_oas/", "title": "IG Credit OAS", "desk": "markets", "created": "2023-06-19", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "IG Credit OAS, %, from U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED), collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-10.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 847, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-T10Y2Y", "type": "series", "slug": "t10y2y", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/t10y2y/", "title": "2s10s Spread", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-02", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "2s10s Spread, pct pts, from U.S.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "pct pts", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1925, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-T10YIE", "type": "series", "slug": "t10yie", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/t10yie/", "title": "10Y Breakeven", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-02", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "10Y Breakeven, %, from U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED), collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1925, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAC-UNRATE", "type": "series", "slug": "unrate", "domain": "macro", "group": "MAC", "url": "/data/series/unrate/", "title": "Unemployment Rate", "desk": "markets", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-08-01", "summary": "Unemployment Rate, %, from U.S.", "source": "U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "%", "kind": "line", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 91, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-BAB-EL-MANDEB", "type": "series", "slug": "bab-el-mandeb", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/bab-el-mandeb/", "title": "Bab el-Mandeb", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Bab el-Mandeb, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-BOSPORUS", "type": "series", "slug": "bosporus", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/bosporus/", "title": "Bosporus", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Bosporus, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-CAPE-OF-GOOD-HOPE", "type": "series", "slug": "cape-of-good-hope", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/cape-of-good-hope/", "title": "Cape of Good Hope", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Cape of Good Hope, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-MALACCA", "type": "series", "slug": "malacca", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/malacca/", "title": "Malacca", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Malacca, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-PANAMA-CANAL", "type": "series", "slug": "panama-canal", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/panama-canal/", "title": "Panama Canal", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Panama Canal, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-STRAIT-OF-HORMUZ", "type": "series", "slug": "strait-of-hormuz", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/strait-of-hormuz/", "title": "Strait of Hormuz", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Strait of Hormuz, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-SUEZ-CANAL", "type": "series", "slug": "suez-canal", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/suez-canal/", "title": "Suez Canal", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Suez Canal, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MAR-TAIWAN", "type": "series", "slug": "taiwan", "domain": "maritime", "group": "MAR", "url": "/data/series/taiwan/", "title": "Taiwan", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2019-01-01", "updated": "2026-09-06", "summary": "Taiwan, transits/day, from IMF PortWatch, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-06.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T4", "unit": "transits/day", "kind": "line", "tab": "maritime", "tab_label": "Maritime", "package": "maritime-chokepoints", "observations": 2800, "links": [ "PKG-maritime-chokepoints", "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-BRENT", "type": "series", "slug": "brent", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/brent/", "title": "Brent Crude", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Brent Crude, $/bbl, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "$/bbl", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1282, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-COPPER", "type": "series", "slug": "copper", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/copper/", "title": "Copper", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Copper, $/lb, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "$/lb", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1282, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-DXY", "type": "series", "slug": "dxy", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/dxy/", "title": "US Dollar Index", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "US Dollar Index, index, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "index", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1281, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-GOLD", "type": "series", "slug": "gold", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/gold/", "title": "Gold", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Gold, $/oz, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "$/oz", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1281, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-NATGAS", "type": "series", "slug": "natgas", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/natgas/", "title": "Natural Gas", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Natural Gas, $/MMBtu, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "$/MMBtu", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1282, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-SP500", "type": "series", "slug": "sp500", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/sp500/", "title": "S&P 500", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-21", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "S&P 500, index, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "index", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1277, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-UST10Y", "type": "series", "slug": "ust10y", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/ust10y/", "title": "UST 10Y Yield", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "UST 10Y Yield, %, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "%", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1278, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-VIX", "type": "series", "slug": "vix", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/vix/", "title": "VIX", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "VIX, index, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "index", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1282, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-MKT-WTI", "type": "series", "slug": "wti", "domain": "markets", "group": "MKT", "url": "/data/series/wti/", "title": "WTI Crude", "desk": "markets", "created": "2021-06-18", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "WTI Crude, $/bbl, from Yahoo Finance, collected daily by the Dashboard pipeline, data through 2026-09-11.", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T4", "unit": "$/bbl", "kind": "ohlc", "tab": "markets", "tab_label": "Markets and Macro", "package": "macro-and-curve", "observations": 1281, "links": [ "PKG-macro-and-curve", "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-SAN-OFAC-DELTA", "type": "series", "slug": "ofac-delta", "domain": "sanctions", "group": "SAN", "url": "/data/series/ofac-delta/", "title": "OFAC SDN list, daily delta", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "The size of the U.S. Treasury Specially Designated Nationals list and its daily change, one row per collection day, data through 2026-09-12.", "source": "U.S. Treasury OFAC (SDN)", "tier": "T1", "unit": "entries", "kind": "line", "tab": "signals", "tab_label": "Signals", "package": "ofac-delta", "observations": 5, "links": [ "PKG-ofac-delta", "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-01", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-01", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-01/", "title": "EWI#1 Suez Canal 7-day transit volume vs baseline", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#1: Suez Canal 7-day transit volume vs baseline.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "GREEN", "threshold": ">70% of baseline", "reading": "101% of baseline", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M6: Logistics; M9: Maritime EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#1", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-02", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-02", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-02/", "title": "EWI#2 Bab-el-Mandeb war-risk premium", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#2: Bab-el-Mandeb war-risk premium.", "source": "Lloyd's / JWC (paywalled)", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "<0.5% of hull value", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Weekly", "pathway_ref": "M6: Logistics Risk", "ewi_id": "EWI#2", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-03", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-03", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-03/", "title": "EWI#3 Strait of Hormuz transit volume", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#3: Strait of Hormuz transit volume.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "RED", "threshold": ">90% of baseline", "reading": "4% of baseline", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M6: Logistics; M9: Maritime EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#3", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-04", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-04", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-04/", "title": "EWI#4 Cape of Good Hope reroute volume", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#4: Cape of Good Hope reroute volume.", "source": "IMF PortWatch", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "GREEN", "threshold": "Within 30% of baseline", "reading": "-13% vs baseline", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M6: Logistics", "ewi_id": "EWI#4", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-supply-chain" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-05", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-05", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-05/", "title": "EWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl)", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#5: Brent crude spot ($/bbl).", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "RED", "threshold": "$60–$90 (baseline band)", "reading": "$104.61", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M5: Financial; M9: Commodity EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#5", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-06", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-06", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-06/", "title": "EWI#6 Copper spot ($/lb)", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#6: Copper spot ($/lb).", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "AMBER", "threshold": "$3.60–$5.00", "reading": "$6.55", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M5: Financial; M9: Commodity EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#6", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-07", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-07", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-07/", "title": "EWI#7 UST 2s10s curve", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#7: UST 2s10s curve.", "source": "FRED", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "GREEN", "threshold": "Not deeply inverted", "reading": "+39 bps", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M5: Financial", "ewi_id": "EWI#7", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-08", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-08", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-08/", "title": "EWI#8 Equity volatility (VIX)", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#8: Equity volatility (VIX).", "source": "Yahoo Finance", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "GREEN", "threshold": "<20 (calm regime)", "reading": "15.8", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M5: Financial; M9: Market EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#8", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-markets" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-09", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-09", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-09/", "title": "EWI#9 Global conflict event density (7-day)", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#9: Global conflict event density (7-day).", "source": "GDELT / ACLED", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "Within 1σ of trailing mean", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M9: Geopolitical EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#9", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-10", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-10", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-10/", "title": "EWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#10: Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day).", "source": "OFAC SDN", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "Baseline tempo", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Weekly", "pathway_ref": "M7: Regulatory", "ewi_id": "EWI#10", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-11", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-11", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-11/", "title": "EWI#11 Active high-intensity conflict zones", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#11: Active high-intensity conflict zones.", "source": "ACLED", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "No new zone escalation", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M9: Geopolitical EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#11", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-12", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-12", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-12/", "title": "EWI#12 Export-control escalation signals", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#12: Export-control escalation signals.", "source": "Reuters / BIS (uncollected)", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "No new dual-use expansion", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Weekly", "pathway_ref": "M7: Regulatory; M9: Policy EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#12", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-political-risk" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-13", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-13", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-13/", "title": "EWI#13 Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day)", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#13: Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day).", "source": "USGS", "tier": "T2", "wired": true, "status": "GREEN", "threshold": "Within seasonal norm", "reading": "1 event", "cadence": "Hourly", "pathway_ref": "M9: Hazard EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#13", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-infrastructure" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-14", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-14", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-14/", "title": "EWI#14 Active tropical cyclones on key lanes", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#14: Active tropical cyclones on key lanes.", "source": "NOAA / GDACS (uncollected)", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "None on critical lanes", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M6: Logistics Risk", "ewi_id": "EWI#14", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-infrastructure" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-15", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-15", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-15/", "title": "EWI#15 Volcanic / ashfall aviation alerts", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#15: Volcanic / ashfall aviation alerts.", "source": "GDACS (uncollected)", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "No major aviation impact", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M8: Travel Risk", "ewi_id": "EWI#15", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-infrastructure" ] }, { "id": "SER-EWI-16", "type": "series", "slug": "ewi-16", "domain": "ewi", "group": "EWI", "url": "/data/series/ewi-16/", "title": "EWI#16 Flood / drought disaster declarations", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-12", "summary": "Early-warning indicator EWI#16: Flood / drought disaster declarations.", "source": "GDACS (uncollected)", "tier": null, "wired": false, "status": "GRAY", "threshold": "Baseline", "reading": "No live source", "cadence": "Daily", "pathway_ref": "M9: Hazard EWI", "ewi_id": "EWI#16", "tab": "ewi", "tab_label": "Early Warning", "package": "ewi-history", "observations": 5, "links": [ "DESK-infrastructure" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-004", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-004", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-004/", "title": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "cat-models-002", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-INS-26-001", "DESK-infrastructure", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-013", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-013", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-013/", "title": "During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2031-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "ground-004", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-INS-26-003", "DESK-infrastructure", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-015", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-015", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-015/", "title": "Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "ground-004", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-INS-26-003", "DESK-infrastructure", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-022", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-022", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-022/", "title": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "ground-004", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-INS-26-003", "DESK-infrastructure", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-024", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-024", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-024/", "title": "The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief. The licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users all remain in place.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-11-30", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "minerals-001", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-001", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-030", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-030", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-030/", "title": "Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "minerals-001", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-001", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-031", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-031", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-031/", "title": "Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "minerals-001", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-001", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-040", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-040", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-040/", "title": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "desk": "infrastructure", "created": "2026-05-26", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "uninsurable-003", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-INS-26-002", "DESK-infrastructure", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-053", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-053", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-053/", "title": "Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-06-01", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hormuz-002", "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "links": [ "AIG-MAR-26-001", "DESK-supply-chain", "SER-MAR-STRAIT-OF-HORMUZ", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-063", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-063", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-063/", "title": "The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action. Each regime is statutorily entrenched in a distinct legal system; the political consensus underwriting each spans more than one electoral cycle.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-002", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-064", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-064", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-064/", "title": "The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with current EU dependency shares on China.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-002", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-066", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-066", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-066/", "title": "A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-002", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-068", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-068", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-068/", "title": "The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month horizon.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month horizon.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-002", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-078", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-078", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-078/", "title": "The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a close second. Each carries a multi-year qualified-supplier path no supplemental appropriation can shortcut inside 24 months.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a close second.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2028-06-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-001", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-079", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-079", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-079/", "title": "Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2030-03-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-001", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-081", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-081", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-081/", "title": "Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year. Today's appropriations do not fix today's magazine.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-001", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-083", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-083", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-083/", "title": "The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most visible public signal of the underlying NC and energetics pathology.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-07-14", "summary": "The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most visible public signal of…", "source": "www.stripes.com", "tier": null, "status": "resolved", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "resolved_on": "2026-07-14", "outcome": "FALSE", "resolution_source": "https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2026-07-14/army-artillery-shell-shortfall-22262070.html", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-001", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-104", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-104", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-104/", "title": "Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows. None imply it disappears.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "resource-nationalism", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-001", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-130", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-130", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-130/", "title": "The attribution gap is durable. Across five major incident clusters in four years, no Western investigation has produced a finalized public state-actor attribution, and the institutional and legal frameworks that would close the gap have not changed.", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The attribution gap is durable.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MAR-26-002", "DESK-supply-chain", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-133", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-133", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-133/", "title": "We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MAR-26-002", "DESK-supply-chain", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-137", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-137", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-137/", "title": "Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not change on a 12-month horizon.", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-06-03", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not change on a 12-month…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MAR-26-002", "DESK-supply-chain", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-148", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-148", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-148/", "title": "Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-06-16", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-12-13", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "venezuela-after-maduro", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-002", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-157", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-157", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-157/", "title": "The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "open", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "counter-uas", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-003", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-166", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-166", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-166/", "title": "Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "counter-uas", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-003", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-178", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-178", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-178/", "title": "Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "integrated-risk", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-003", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-187", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-187", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-187/", "title": "broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-08-20", "summary": "broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.", "source": "www.freshfields.com", "tier": null, "status": "resolved", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "outcome": "TRUE", "resolution_source": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "brief": "principal-protection", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-002", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-191", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-191", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-191/", "title": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-06-19", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "principal-protection", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-002", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-200", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-200", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-200/", "title": "The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the structural gap persisting on that measure regardless of how the mining picture evolves.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-07-08", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the structural gap persisting…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-003", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-202", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-202", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-202/", "title": "The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-07-08", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2029-07-08", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-003", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-205", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-205", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-205/", "title": "The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional capital is announced in that window.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-07-08", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional capital is announced in that…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-003", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-208", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-208", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-208/", "title": "Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the buyer's position, and none closes the gap outright.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-07-08", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-003", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-213", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-213", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-213/", "title": "The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-07-14", "updated": "2026-08-20", "summary": "The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.", "source": "www.freshfields.com", "tier": null, "status": "resolved", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "outcome": "TRUE", "resolution_source": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-004", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-220", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-220", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-220/", "title": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving the footprint decisive.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-07-14", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving the footprint decisive.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-07-14", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-004", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-227", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-227", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-227/", "title": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-07-16", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-07-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "capture-field-read", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-004", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-234", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-234", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-234/", "title": "Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-07-30", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.85, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "september-letter", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MUN-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-236", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-236", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-236/", "title": "Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-07-30", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "september-letter", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MUN-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-244", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-244", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-244/", "title": "Baseline is the most probable path.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-07-30", "updated": "2026-09-08", "summary": "Baseline is the most probable path.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "september-letter", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MUN-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-245", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-245", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-245/", "title": "The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.25, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-09-18", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forward-benchmark", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-FWD-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-246", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-246", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-246/", "title": "The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.15, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forward-benchmark", "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "links": [ "AIG-FWD-26-001", "DESK-supply-chain", "SER-MAR-STRAIT-OF-HORMUZ", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-247", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-247", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-247/", "title": "A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.25, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forward-benchmark", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-FWD-26-001", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-248", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-248", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-248/", "title": "No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.96, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-15", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forward-benchmark", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-FWD-26-001", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-249", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-249", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-249/", "title": "EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": null, "kind": "range", "resolves_by": "2026-10-06", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forward-benchmark", "series": [ "brent" ], "links": [ "AIG-FWD-26-001", "DESK-markets", "SER-MKT-BRENT", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-250", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-250", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-250/", "title": "US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": null, "kind": "range", "resolves_by": "2026-10-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forward-benchmark", "series": [ "cpi" ], "links": [ "AIG-FWD-26-001", "DESK-markets", "SER-MAC-CPI", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-251", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-251", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-251/", "title": "Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-07-09", "updated": "2026-07-09", "summary": "Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.6, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forward-benchmark", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-FWD-26-001", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-252", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-252", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-252/", "title": "The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.08, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-006", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-253", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-253", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-253/", "title": "A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.1, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-006", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-254", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-254", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-254/", "title": "United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.5, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-05", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-006", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-255", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-255", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-255/", "title": "The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.4, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-006", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-256", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-256", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-256/", "title": "Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.1, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-006", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-257", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-257", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-257/", "title": "Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.6, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-006", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-258", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-258", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-258/", "title": "The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.18, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-006", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-259", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-259", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-259/", "title": "The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026, that initial Grade A nitrocellulose production capability has been achieved at Radford Army Ammunition Plant.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026, that initial Grade A…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.15, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-007", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-260", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-260", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-260/", "title": "Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from USAspending.gov on 16 November 2026, will be 5.9 billion United States dollars, with an interval of 5.0 billion to 8.5 billion United States dollars.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from USAspending.gov on 16 November 2026…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": null, "kind": "range", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-007", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-261", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-261", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-261/", "title": "A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War Inspector General or Government Accountability Office product, issued on or before 31 December 2026, states a 155mm load, assemble and pack rate of 63,000 rounds per month or more for any month up to and including November 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-10", "updated": "2026-09-10", "summary": "A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War Inspector General or…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.12, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-007", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-262", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-262", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-262/", "title": "MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.25, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-10", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forty-seven-days-to-november-10", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-004", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-263", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-263", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-263/", "title": "MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.", "desk": "manufacturing", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.92, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "forty-seven-days-to-november-10", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-MIN-26-004", "DESK-manufacturing", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-264", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-264", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-264/", "title": "The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its official determination of the results of the 18 to 20 September 2026 election.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its official determination of the…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.8, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-05", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "after-the-duma", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-005", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-265", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-265", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-265/", "title": "Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three governments publicly acknowledge as trilateral, on or before 9 October 2026.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.55, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "after-the-duma", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-005", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-266", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-266", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-266/", "title": "The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.12, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-11", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "three-percent-on-paper", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-006", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-267", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-267", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-267/", "title": "The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026.", "desk": "political-risk", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.15, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-01-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "three-percent-on-paper", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-GOV-26-006", "DESK-political-risk", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-268", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-268", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-268/", "title": "August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.62, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-269", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-269", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-269/", "title": "September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.38, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-02", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-270", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-270", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-270/", "title": "The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.35, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-271", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-271", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-271/", "title": "DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.38, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-272", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-272", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-272/", "title": "The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.7, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-14", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-273", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-273", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-273/", "title": "The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.68, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-274", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-274", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-274/", "title": "The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.78, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-275", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-275", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-275/", "title": "At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2), meaning conduct described at 6 U.S.C. 124n(b)(1)(C), (D) or (F) and not detection, warning or confiscation by hand, occurring anywhere in the United States between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, is publicly reported by 31 October 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.2, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-008", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-276", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-276", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-276/", "title": "The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or specific systems, is published in a publicly readable form not requiring law-enforcement credentials, on or before 31 December 2026.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or specific systems, is…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.55, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-008", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-277", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-277", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-277/", "title": "The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is renewed, extended, or replaced by a categorical or standing authorisation covering the same class of operations, with effect on or before 31 January 2027.", "desk": "defense", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is renewed, extended, or replaced…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.75, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2027-01-31", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-DEF-26-008", "DESK-defense", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-278", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-278", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-278/", "title": "The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.4, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-002", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-279", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-279", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-279/", "title": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": null, "kind": "range", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-002", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-280", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-280", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-280/", "title": "At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.65, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-002", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-281", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-281", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-281/", "title": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": null, "kind": "range", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-ECO-26-002", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-282", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-282", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-282/", "title": "A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026.", "desk": "markets", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.55, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "sixty-votes-or-bust", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-RIB-26-001", "DESK-markets", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-283", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-283", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-283/", "title": "The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) or lower, or reduces total daily booking slots below 32.", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft…", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": 0.2, "kind": "probability", "resolves_by": "2026-11-03", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "panamas-second-drought", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-SCL-26-001", "DESK-supply-chain", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] }, { "id": "CLM-2026-284", "type": "claim", "slug": "clm-2026-284", "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-284/", "title": "The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.", "desk": "supply-chain", "created": "2026-09-11", "updated": "2026-09-11", "summary": "The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.", "source": null, "tier": null, "status": "locked", "p": null, "kind": "range", "resolves_by": "2027-02-16", "resolved_on": null, "outcome": null, "resolution_source": null, "brief": "panamas-second-drought", "series": [], "links": [ "AIG-SCL-26-001", "DESK-supply-chain", "PKG-claims-ledger" ] } ] }