# The public claim ledger

Package `claims-ledger` · version 2026-09-12 · 77 rows · 2026-05-26 to 2026-09-11

## What it is

Every forward claim on the firm's public Scorecard, one row per claim: the statement in the brief's own words, the probability or range the firm locked, the dates, the status, and the dated public source that resolved it. Public Brier score None over n = 0 at build time.

## Source and tier

Aegean Intelligence Group, from the published briefs and the forward benchmark of record. Resolutions cite the public source in the evidence columns. Tier T2 (the firm's own record) on the firm's source tier policy (T1 government and regulatory, T2 institutional, T3 reputable media, T4 structured data).

## Cadence

Rebuilt whenever the ledger changes and at the end of each collector run.

## Fields

| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `id` | Claim id, CLM-YYYY-NNN. |
| `brief` | The publication slug under /research/, or forward-benchmark. |
| `desk` | The desk the claim belongs to. |
| `kind` | probability, or range for a quantity question. |
| `statement` | The claim in the brief's own words, lightly trimmed. |
| `made_on, locked_on` | The publication date, and the day the claim entered the ledger. |
| `resolves_by` | The last day of the resolution window. |
| `p` | The locked probability, 0 to 1; blank for range items. |
| `range_lo, range_central, range_hi, range_unit` | The locked band for range items. |
| `confidence` | The brief's band where the probability came from a band. |
| `status, resolution, resolved_on` | locked, open, resolved or void; TRUE or FALSE; the date of the settling source. |
| `evidence_url, evidence_line` | The public source and one line saying what it shows. |

## Caveats

Proposed candidates that did not pass the forward-claim standard are not in this file. The scoring rule and the void condition are on the Methodology page.

## How to cite

Aegean Intelligence Group, "The public claim ledger", open data package claims-ledger, version 2026-09-12, aegeanintel.com/data/. Free to use with attribution; no warranty.

## Licence

Free to use, redistribute and build on. Attribution to Aegean Intelligence Group and to the upstream source is requested. The data is published as collected, without warranty of accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose; the upstream source is the authority.