{ "schema": "aeig-claims@2", "generated": "2026-10-11", "scoring": "Brier score over resolved BRIER-native probability claims only; legacy tracks and voids are excluded from the headline score and reported separately.", "summary": { "n": 17, "brier": null, "last_resolved_on": "2026-10-10", "locked_total": 122, "public_total": 149, "by_status": { "locked": 122, "resolved": 26, "open": 1 }, "by_desk": { "defense": { "locked": 27, "open": 0, "resolved": 3, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "infrastructure": { "locked": 12, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "manufacturing": { "locked": 22, "open": 0, "resolved": 1, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "markets": { "locked": 27, "open": 1, "resolved": 8, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "political-risk": { "locked": 20, "open": 0, "resolved": 4, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "supply-chain": { "locked": 14, "open": 0, "resolved": 1, "void": 0, "brier": null } }, "bins": [ { "lo": 0.0, "hi": 0.1, "n": 1, "mean_p": 0.08, "hit_rate": 0.0 }, { "lo": 0.1, "hi": 0.2, "n": 3, "mean_p": 0.1233, "hit_rate": 0.0 }, { "lo": 0.2, "hi": 0.3, "n": 3, "mean_p": 0.25, "hit_rate": 0.0 }, { "lo": 0.3, "hi": 0.4, "n": 2, "mean_p": 0.38, "hit_rate": 0.5 }, { "lo": 0.4, "hi": 0.5, "n": 1, "mean_p": 0.4, "hit_rate": 1.0 }, { "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6, "n": 3, "mean_p": 0.5333, "hit_rate": 0.3333 }, { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.7, "n": 3, "mean_p": 0.6233, "hit_rate": 0.3333 }, { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.8, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9, "n": 1, "mean_p": 0.8, "hit_rate": 1.0 }, { "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1.0, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null } ], "as_of": "2026-10-11", "score_scope": "brier-native resolved probability claims only", "tracks": { "brier-native": { "n": 17, "brier": null }, "legacy-prospective": { "n": 0, "brier": null }, "legacy-retrospective": { "n": 4, "brier": null } }, "record_classes": { "legacy-prospective": 33, "legacy-retrospective": 4, "brier-native": 112 }, "claim_families": 59, "score_shown": false, "score_counted": 12, "score_needed": 30 }, "claims": [ { "id": "CLM-2026-004", "brief": "cat-models-002", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. The two-to-three-year stabilization clause of the same sentence is entered as its own claim. Resolves by the Baseline conditions the brief lists: no single industry-loss event of 60 billion dollars or more, controlled carrier exits, NFIP bridged.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path (baseline); two-to-three-year outcome (stabilization)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the twelve-month clause. The two-to-three-year clause (stabilization: multi-year NFIP reauthorization, expanded CA/FL backstops, FHFA GSE climate capital rules) would resolve 2028-05-26 to 2029-05-26.", "checkable": "Twelve-month check: absence of a $60B+ single-event industry loss, continued CA/FL carrier exits, NFIP bridge reauthorization, further property-cat softening (Aon/Howden/Gallagher Re renewals reports)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "cat-models-002", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-013", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2031-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, HIGH. Resolves against FEMA flood-map guidance and datum labels through the 2025 to 2031 window the brief names.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 8 (printed p.7), Section 03 Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "estimated five years post NAPGD2022 release; rationale cites 'the 2025 to 2031 window'", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the end of the 2025 to 2031 window named in the rationale.", "checkable": "FEMA flood-map update guidance and DFIRM datum labels; NGS / FEMA joint advisories on datum conversion", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-015", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 04 assessment, MODERATE, two consecutive sentences quoted so the referent is on the page. Resolves true if datum specification with conversion provisions is standard in parametric coastal-flood wordings by end-2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 9 (printed p.8), Section 04 Assessment (MODERATE)", "window_as_stated": "by 2027", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'this' = datum specification with formal conversion provisions in parametric policy language (preceding sentence). 'by 2027' ambiguous; end-2027 used.", "checkable": "Parametric policy forms and industry guidance (WTW, PwC, NAIC) showing datum-specification and conversion clauses as standard", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-022", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. Resolves by the Baseline conditions: NGS rollout completed by end-2026, no major landfall producing datum-related claims disputes, no FEMA or FHFA reference-frame guidance.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim sentence from the HIGH assessment block.", "checkable": "NGS rollout completion by end-2026; absence of a major landfall in a high-subsidence jurisdiction with datum-related claims disputes; no FEMA/FHFA reference-frame guidance", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-024", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief. The licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users all remain in place.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2026-11-30", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-4, MODERATE. The brief names the suspensions' expiry as roughly 27 November 2026; the claim resolves true if the licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion and the military-end-user prohibition are still in force at that date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.3, KJ-4 (landing page lists it as KJ-3)", "window_as_stated": "unstated", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers '8, 15' trimmed. Section 06 names the expiry as roughly 27 November 2026 but the judgment itself states no window.", "checkable": "MOFCOM announcements and trade-press reporting on whether the one-year suspensions lapse, are re-tightened, or are converted into durable rollback (suspension expiry cited elsewhere in the brief as roughly 27 November 2026).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-030", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05 assessment, MODERATE. A carried IEA projection the brief endorses at its own confidence.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 05 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "into the mid-2030s", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation marker '1' trimmed. This restates an IEA projection rather than an AEIG-originated forecast; the enclosing assessment block carries MODERATE confidence. 'Mid-2030s' resolved to 2035-12-31 as a convention.", "checkable": "IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook refining-share series through 2035.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-031", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05 assessment, MODERATE. Window is the section's stated 6 to 12 months, outer bound.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 05 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "6 to 12 Months (scenario horizon, Section 05 heading)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Window taken from the section heading 'Three Scenarios, 6 to 12 Months'; outer bound used.", "checkable": "IEA/CSIS refining and magnet-share data: China share of rare-earth processing remains a large majority through mid-2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-040", "brief": "uninsurable-003", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. Resolves against cat-bond issuance and outstanding-market data and the absence of a governance-review event through May 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path (baseline); two-to-three-year destination (stabilization)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the twelve-month clause; the two-to-three-year clause resolves 2028-05-26 to 2029-05-26.", "checkable": "Artemis cat-bond issuance and outstanding-market data; parametric premium growth reporting; sovereign-pool joint platform announcements", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "uninsurable-003", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-053", "brief": "hormuz-002", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.", "made_on": "2026-06-01", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Two quarters from the 1 June 2026 issue date. Resolves against published hull war-risk additional premium levels and the JWC Listed Areas status on 1 December 2026 compared with January 2026.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 13 (printed 12), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "a horizon shorter than two quarters", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Two quarters from the 1 June 2026 issue date. Same block adds: 'Even under Stabilization, the JWC designation, the LMA war-pricing precedent, and the PGSA institutional residue persist; under Deterioration they compound.'", "checkable": "Hull war-risk premium quotes (Lloyd's List, Howden Re, Platts) and JWC Listed Areas status through 1 December 2026 compared with the January 2026 baseline.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "hormuz-002", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-063", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action. Each regime is statutorily entrenched in a distinct legal system; the political consensus underwriting each spans more than one electoral cycle.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, MODERATE. Resolves true if MOFCOM licensing, the EU CRMA, the US BIS rules and the Indonesian ore-export bans are all still in force on 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers '14, 25, 13, 28' trimmed. KJ-7 appears in the PDF but not on the landing page's four-judgment summary.", "checkable": "Whether MOFCOM licensing, EU CRMA, US BIS FDPR/Entity List, and Indonesian ore-export bans all remain in force through June 2027 (MOFCOM, EUR-Lex, Federal Register, MoEMR).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-064", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with current EU dependency shares on China.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-3, MODERATE. Resolves true if the EU has not met its 40 percent processing benchmark and 65 percent single-source cap by end-2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-3", "window_as_stated": "by 2030 (benchmark date)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Lead-in 'The EU Critical Raw Materials Act is statutorily ambitious and operationally lagging.' and citation markers '25, 13, 33' trimmed. Phrased as a present trajectory judgment; the forward implication is that the 2030 benchmarks will be missed.", "checkable": "European Commission CRMA monitoring reports on EU processing share and single-country dependency versus the 40 percent and 65 percent benchmarks.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-066", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, MODERATE, on the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. Resolves true if the Commission opens a mid-term review or proposes an amendment before 1 January 2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 03 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "before 2028", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Refers to the EU CRMA (subject of the enclosing assessment). 'More likely than not' is a verbal band (>0.5), not a stated percentage, so stated_probability left null.", "checkable": "European Commission communication initiating a CRMA mid-term review or a legislative amendment proposal before 1 January 2028.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-068", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month horizon.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05, MODERATE. Resolves true if no downstreaming mandate is withdrawn in response to WTO action by 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.13, Section 05 body (section Assessment is Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Body-text sentence; the section's MODERATE assessment restates 'WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent' without the window, so the MODERATE tag is attributed.", "checkable": "WTO dispute records (DS592 status, Appellate Body function) and whether Indonesia or an imitator withdraws a downstreaming mandate in response to WTO action.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-078", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a close second. Each carries a multi-year qualified-supplier path no supplemental appropriation can shortcut inside 24 months.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2028-06-03", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-2, HIGH. Resolves false if a second qualified nitrocellulose source or a third qualified tactical solid-rocket-motor supplier is delivering at scale before June 2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-2", "window_as_stated": "inside 24 months", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 9, 7, 10 dropped. 24 months from the 3 June 2026 issue date.", "checkable": "Army / JPEO Armaments and Ammunition announcements of a second qualified North American nitrocellulose source, or a third qualified tactical SRM supplier delivering at scale, before June 2028.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-079", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2030-03-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-3, HIGH. The SM-6 clause of the same judgment is kept on file separately because SM-6 inventory levels are not public. Resolves false if FY2027-lot Tomahawk deliveries are publicly recorded before March 2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-3; repeated in Section 05 Assessment (HIGH) on PDF page 11", "window_as_stated": "March 2030 (Tomahawk); early 2029 (SM-6)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 8, 6 dropped. Tomahawk delivery date is the outer bound used; a first delivery before March 2030 would falsify.", "checkable": "Navy FY2027 budget justification books and Raytheon / NAVSEA delivery announcements for FY2027-lot Tomahawks; SM-6 inventory levels are not public, so the SM-6 half is only indirectly checkable via CSIS estimates.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-081", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year. Today's appropriations do not fix today's magazine.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, HIGH. Resolves against delivery data in budget justification books and contractor disclosures for the 2024 and 2025 multiyear and large-lot awards.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 4 (printed 3), Key Judgments, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "2026 to 2028", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 6, 14, 8 dropped. Leading sentence 'Multi-year and large-lot procurement are the right policy mechanisms but carry a built-in lag' trimmed.", "checkable": "Delivery data in DoD budget justification books and contractor disclosures for the August 2025 JASSM/LRASM large-lot, AMRAAM, and PAC-3 MSE multiyear awards.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-083", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most visible public signal of the underlying NC and energetics pathology.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-07-14", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2026-07-14/army-artillery-shell-shortfall-22262070.html", "line": "A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings." }, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, HIGH. Mid-2026 read as 30 June 2026. Carries the brief's own caveat, barring a feedstock disruption. The shortfall the report names is projectile metal-part production and a failed contractor plant, not a feedstock disruption, so the brief's caveat does not apply.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 9 (printed 8), Section 03 Walk-Through, Assessment block (HIGH CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "the mid-2026 revised timeline", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'Mid-2026' read as 30 June 2026; a July 2026 reading would also be defensible. Carries the caveat 'barring a feedstock disruption'. The Thesis lists a formal DoD 100,000/month declaration as a falsification condition.", "checkable": "US Army / JPEO A&A statements of the all-US-facility 155mm monthly production rate; Defense News, Defense One, National Defense (NDIA) reporting.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-104", "brief": "resource-nationalism", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows. None imply it disappears.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. The scoreable element is that no Wave 3 settlement is disclosed at or near full filed claim value within the 12-month horizon.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.14, Section 07 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "12 Months (Section 07 heading)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'The discount' refers to the discount to filed claim value that firms internalise; the scoreable element is 'None imply it disappears'.", "checkable": "Whether any Wave 3 settlement over the window is disclosed at or near full filed claim value (company filings, trade press).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "resource-nationalism", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-130", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The attribution gap is durable. Across five major incident clusters in four years, no Western investigation has produced a finalized public state-actor attribution, and the institutional and legal frameworks that would close the gap have not changed.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-1, HIGH. The window is the brief's own thesis line for the same judgment: the gap is durable across at least a 12-month horizon. Resolves false if any Western investigation issues a finalized public state-actor attribution by 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-1", "window_as_stated": "unstated in KJ-1; the Thesis on the same page states 'The gap is durable across at least a 12-month horizon'", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 9, 10, 11, 2 dropped. The 12-month window is taken from the Thesis sentence for the same judgment, not from KJ-1 itself; treat as stated by the brief but flagged.", "checkable": "Any finalized public state-actor attribution issued by a Western investigation (German Federal Prosecutor on Nord Stream, Finnish NBI on Eagle S / Balticconnector, Estonian or Swedish authorities) by 3 June 2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-133", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, MODERATE. The pattern is the Estlink-2 response described in the same judgment: board the vessel, prosecute the owner, recover damages, treat the sponsoring-state question separately.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 4 (printed 3), Key Judgments, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "over the next 12 months", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 11, 21, 14 dropped. 'This pattern' refers to the Estlink-2 / Eagle S response described in the first sentence of KJ-7: board the vessel, prosecute the owner, recover damages, treat the sponsoring-state question separately.", "checkable": "Western responses to subsea incidents through June 2027: vessel boardings and owner prosecutions (Finnish NBI, other coastal states) versus any finalized state-actor attribution.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-137", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not change on a 12-month horizon.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against published cable-ship fleet counts and chokepoint bandwidth shares in mid-2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 16 (printed 15), Section 07 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "a 12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "12 months from the 3 June 2026 issue date.", "checkable": "SubTel Forum and TeleGeography fleet counts (60-75 cable-capable vessels, roughly 10 firms) and chokepoint bandwidth shares (Egypt ~17%, Luzon ~30%) as of mid-2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-148", "brief": "venezuela-after-maduro", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.", "made_on": "2026-06-16", "resolves_by": "2026-12-13", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. 180 days from the 16 June 2026 issue date. Resolves by the Baseline conditions the brief itself lists: the February licences in force, Rodriguez acting with US recognition, no competitive election scheduled, production near 1.0 to 1.1 million barrels a day, no ICJ judgment.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 12 (printed 11), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "90 to 180 day", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "180 days from the 16 June 2026 issue date. 'Most probable' is a comparative ranking of scenarios, not a numeric probability, so stated_probability is null.", "checkable": "Whether the Baseline conditions on PDF page 11 held through mid-December 2026: February OFAC licenses in force, Rodriguez acting president with US recognition, no competitive election date, production 1.0-1.1 mb/d, no ICJ judgment.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "venezuela-after-maduro", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-157", "brief": "counter-uas", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-09-16", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/06/2026-13609/counter-uas-authority-for-state-local-tribal-and-territorial-law-enforcement-and-correctional", "line": "The interim final rule is effective July 1, 2026." }, "notes": "KJ-5, MODERATE. The forward element is that the implementing rules due around June 2026 run late. Resolves true if the rules had not published by 30 June 2026. Held open as contested on 8 September 2026: the Justice and Homeland Security departments' interim final rule took effect on 1 July 2026 and published in the Federal Register on 6 July 2026, after the June window but inside the statute's 180-day deadline, so whether the rulebook was late turns on which clock the reader uses. The founders rule on it; until then it adds nothing to the score. Resolved 2026-09-16 by Zacharias: Effective 1 July and published 6 July is inside the statute's own 180 day deadline. The claim's stated window was \"around June 2026\", and the note's hardening of that to \"by 30 June\" was stricter than the claim itself. Done on time, reported a few days later. Not late.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-5", "window_as_stated": "implementing rules due around June 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 24, 25 removed. Forward element is the rule due-date and the judgment that the rulebook is late; the statutory description is present-tense. The website page renumbers this as KJ-3.", "checkable": "Federal Register / DHS-DOJ publication of SAFER SKIES implementing rules and certification program; whether they published by end-June 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "counter-uas", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-166", "brief": "counter-uas", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves by the status of the SAFER SKIES rules, the count of certified agencies, and the absence of a casualty or major-outage drone incident on US soil by June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim including PDF hyphenation artifact 'lower- probability'. This is the analyst's ranking of scenarios (Baseline most probable), not a construction-confidence tag, so scenario flag is false. No numeric probability.", "checkable": "By June 2027: status of SAFER SKIES final rules (slipped/interim vs final), count of certified state/local agencies, and whether a weaponized-drone incident with casualties or major outage occurred on US soil", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "counter-uas", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-178", "brief": "integrated-risk", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Window is the section's stated twelve months. Resolves against convergence prevalence and board oversight surveys through June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "Three Scenarios, Twelve Months (section header)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim. Window taken from the Section 06 header 'Three Scenarios, Twelve Months'; this assessment sentence itself does not repeat 'twelve-month'. Analyst ranking, not construction confidence.", "checkable": "By June 2027: convergence prevalence still near ~24 percent, S&P 500 audit-committee cyber oversight still ~79 percent, no high-profile seam incident with named individual accountability", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "integrated-risk", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-187", "brief": "principal-protection", "desk": "defense", "statement": "broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "line": "A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight." }, "notes": "Section 03, under KJ-5, MODERATE. Resolves against the California Privacy Protection Agency's record of the broker compliance start date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.9 (footer 8), Section 03 body (covered by KJ-5)", "window_as_stated": "from August 1, 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 24, 25 removed; preceding clause about enrollment counts trimmed. Body text; MODERATE is the tag on KJ-5 and the Section 03 Assessment, which cover California's deletion platform. Largely a statement of statutory schedule rather than an analytic forecast.", "checkable": "California Privacy Protection Agency DROP notices confirming the August 1, 2026 broker-compliance start and 45-day cycle", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "principal-protection", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-191", "brief": "principal-protection", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. A line-break hyphen in the PDF was joined. Resolves against the 2027 proxy-season disclosure share and convergence prevalence surveys.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.14 (footer 13), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim including PDF hyphenation artifact 'twelve- month'. Analyst's scenario ranking, not a construction-confidence tag.", "checkable": "By June 2027: Equilar 2027 proxy-season disclosure share rising; ASIS or similar convergence prevalence still near one quarter; no publicly attributed data-source-to-attack chain", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "principal-protection", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-200", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the structural gap persisting on that measure regardless of how the mining picture evolves.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-6, MODERATE. Resolves against published non-Chinese refining share for 2035.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-6 (landing page lists it as KJ-4)", "window_as_stated": "2035", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Lead-in 'For an operator or investor, mine-offtake diversification is the wrong primary metric for rare-earth exposure.' and citation markers '1,2,17,18' trimmed.", "checkable": "S&P Global, IEA, McKinsey refining-share data for 2035: non-Chinese share still a small minority.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-202", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2029-07-08", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the reasons the flagship projects disclose for any delay through July 2029.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.7, Section 03 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "the next three years", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "None.", "checkable": "Whether flagship project delays through 2029 are attributed to construction/qualification rather than financing in company disclosures.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-205", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional capital is announced in that window.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 04 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the non-Chinese share of rare-earth refining and magnet output at end-2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.8, Section 04 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "2026 to 2028 horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "None.", "checkable": "Non-Chinese share of rare-earth refining and magnet production at end-2028 (S&P Global, IEA).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-208", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the buyer's position, and none closes the gap outright.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 06 assessment, HIGH. Resolves true if China still holds the majority of rare-earth refining and magnet output at end-2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.11, Section 06 Assessment (High Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "2026-to-2030 window", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "PDF wording quoted; markdown source has a longer variant of the same sentence.", "checkable": "China share of rare-earth refining and magnet output through 2030 remains the majority (S&P Global, IEA, USGS).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-213", "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.", "made_on": "2026-07-14", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "line": "A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026." }, "notes": "KJ-4, HIGH. The present-tense description of registry gaps in the same judgment is trimmed. Resolves against the California Privacy Protection Agency's record of the enforcement date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-4", "window_as_stated": "August 1, 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 2, 3, 4 removed. Website page renumbers this as KJ-3. The enforceability date is the forward element; the registry limits are present-tense.", "checkable": "CPPA confirmation that DROP broker-compliance obligations took effect August 1, 2026; state broker-registry counts (EFF/PRC analysis)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "principal-digital-exposure", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-220", "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving the footprint decisive.", "made_on": "2026-07-14", "resolves_by": "2027-07-14", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against DROP compliance data, the absence of a public data-source attribution for an attack, and the absence of a multi-state or federal deletion standard by July 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim from PDF (draft markdown wording differs slightly). Analyst ranking, not construction confidence.", "checkable": "By July 2027: CPPA DROP compliance/enforcement data showing partial deletion; no prosecution publicly naming a data source as targeting basis; no multi-state or federal deletion standard enacted", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "principal-digital-exposure", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-227", "brief": "capture-field-read", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.", "made_on": "2026-07-16", "resolves_by": "2027-07-16", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 06 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the Federal Register status of the FAR overhaul rules and FY2026 competition reporting by July 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12, Section 06 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "This is the section assessment, not a scenario construction confidence. Resolution requires mapping observed outcomes to the Baseline/Acceleration definitions (contract volume near $750B, FAR overhaul final rules issued, one-offer and retention patterns hold).", "checkable": "Federal Register final-rule issuance for the Revolutionary FAR Overhaul (Parts 1, 2, 4, 33, 39, 40, 53) and FY2026 DoD competition / one-offer reporting; GAO FY2026 bid protest annual report", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "capture-field-read", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-234", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "open", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-2, HIGH. The 60-day clause for later hearings is kept on file separately because its window depends on hearing dates the brief does not fix. Resolves against the Assessor's notice mailings and local reporting. Window passed on 2026-09-30 with no public source recorded; the website shows it as Open from 2026-10-02.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-2 (restated in Section 01, PDF p.6: 'Every 2026 appeal heard before 1 September receives that notice in the mail by mid to late September; appeals heard after 1 September receive one within 60 days of the hearing date.')", "window_as_stated": "mid to late September (2026)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Trimmed lead-in 'The calendar is published and therefore plannable. Formal scheduling closed 26 June, hearings are calendared into August,' and citation marker 1. The brief attributes the schedule to the Assessor; the claim is that it holds.", "checkable": "Davidson County Assessor of Property (padctn.org) formal-appeals page and local reporting on notice mailings", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-236", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-6, MODERATE. 90 days from the 30 July 2026 issue date. Resolves against local reporting on turnover and closures versus any rate relief or fund disbursement in the window; voided if the record cannot separate the two.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-6", "window_as_stated": "60 to 90 days", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Trimmed the supporting sentences and citation markers 10,11,12. Markdown phrasing is 'Over the next 60 to 90 days the fastest-moving adjustment channel'; PDF wording quoted. 90 days counted from the 2026-07-30 issue date.", "checkable": "Nashville local reporting (WSMV, FOX 17, Nashville Banner) on business closures and lease turnover versus any legacy-fund disbursements or rate action by 2026-10-28", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-244", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Baseline is the most probable path.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves by the Baseline conditions: notices land as published, forks fall in late October and November, relief criteria publish late.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.13, Section 06 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "Sixty to Ninety Days (the outlook horizon the assessment ranks)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Section assessment, not a scenario construction confidence. Resolves by checking whether the Baseline conditions (notices land as published, forks in late Oct/Nov, relief criteria late) held versus Deterioration or Relief.", "checkable": "Assessor notice mailings in mid to late September 2026; Board of Equalization agendas; State Board filing volume; timing of legacy fund criteria publication", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-245", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "probability", "statement": "The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-09-18", "p": 0.25, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-09-16", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "line": "target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent" }, "notes": "Locked as a judgment call. June 2026 hold was unanimous at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 with inflation called elevated. Resolution source: federalreserve.gov FOMC statement of record (implementation note), 2026-09-17. Read 2026-09-16 by AEGIS (fomc_reader 0.1.0): AEGIS read the target range standing at the conclusion of this meeting: 3.75 to 4 percent. The claim resolves true only if it is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, that is an upper bound under 3.75. Note for the approver: this claim's own text names 2026-09-17 as the conclusion of the meeting, and the Board's calendar puts the meeting at 15 to 16 September, so the date in the claim is wrong while the fact it asks about is the one read here.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-01", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "federalreserve.gov FOMC statement of record (implementation note), 2026-09-17." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "fomc-2026-09", "learning_role": "holdout", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0001" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-246", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "supply-chain", "kind": "probability", "statement": "The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.15, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-02", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.maritime.dot.gov/msci/2026-011-persian-gulf-strait-hormuz-and-gulf-oman-iranian-attacks-commercial-vessels", "line": "The evidence shows continuing attacks, protected transit, and materially depressed traffic." }, "notes": "Judgment call, conditioned on the US-Iran agreement item. Strait closed about 130 days at lock; strikes resumed 2026-07-08. Resolution source: UKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record. Window passed on 2026-10-01 with no public source recorded; the website shows it as Open from 2026-10-02. Resolved 2026-10-02 by Zacharias: FALSE, transit remained materially restricted.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-02", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "UKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record." }, "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-hormuz-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0002" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-247", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "political-risk", "kind": "probability", "statement": "A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.25, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-02", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-says-ready-for-talks-ce785adddb8df520", "line": "Negotiations had not produced an agreement by the deadline. Proposed disposition: FALSE." }, "notes": "Anchored to the firm's reference class for escalating adversarial bargaining (episode-level settlement rate 0.67, credible interval 0.53 to 0.81), with an explicit 83-day window adjustment from a collapsed-talks starting state. Resolution source: whitehouse.gov and state.gov statements; AP or Reuters wire of record. Window passed on 2026-10-01 with no public source recorded; the website shows it as Open from 2026-10-02. Resolved 2026-10-02 by Zacharias: FALSE, no qualifying agreement by September 30.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-03", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "whitehouse.gov and state.gov statements; AP or Reuters wire of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-hormuz-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0003" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-248", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "defense", "kind": "probability", "statement": "No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-15", "p": 0.96, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Anchored to the firm's reference class for two-party standoffs with a credible mutual threat (episode-level holds rate 0.59), converted to a 98-day window against historical quarterly initiation rates. Resolution source: DoD and INDOPACOM statements and USNI News; AP wire of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-04", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "DoD and INDOPACOM statements and USNI News; AP wire of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "taiwan-standoff-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0004" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-249", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "range", "statement": "EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-06", "p": null, "range": { "lo": 62.0, "central": 80.0, "hi": 105.0, "unit": "USD/bbl" }, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-07", "evidence": { "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrentd/brent-oil-daily/kxbrentd-26oct0117", "line": "Brent crude oil price on October 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? $ 102.25" }, "notes": "Quantity item, scored by interval coverage rather than the Brier rule. Brent was 78.55 dollars on 2026-07-08 with the Hormuz closure ongoing; the band is wide because the distribution was bimodal at lock. Resolution source: eia.gov, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily (RBRTE). Resolved 2026-10-07 by Zacharias: EIA's last published Brent spot was $113.96 on 29 September. To land at or below $105, it would need to fall about 8% over just two sessions (30 Sep and 1 Oct). A Kalshi contract on the 1 October Brent price, captured the evening before, had strikes clustered around $98–99, with the market putting roughly 40–47% odds on Brent finishing above those levels, and near-certainty on it being above $92. That suggests the futures market expected Brent around $98 on 1 October.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-05", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "eia.gov, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily (RBRTE)." }, "series": [ "brent" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-hormuz-2026-q3", "learning_role": "holdout", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0005" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-250", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "range", "statement": "US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-16", "p": null, "range": { "lo": 3.0, "central": 3.9, "hi": 5.0, "unit": "percent YoY" }, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Quantity item, scored by interval coverage. May 2026 headline was 4.2 percent with the oil shock in the headline; the central case assumes partial retracement holds. Resolution source: bls.gov CPI news release for September 2026.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-06", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "bls.gov CPI news release for September 2026." }, "series": [ "cpi" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-inflation-2026-09", "learning_role": "holdout", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0006" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-251", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "political-risk", "kind": "probability", "statement": "Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "p": 0.6, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Locked at LOW confidence by design; 2026-specific polling was not reviewed at lock, stated plainly. The point of the forward benchmark is to be scored, not to be safe. Resolution source: apnews.com House race calls of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-07", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "apnews.com House race calls of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-midterms-2026", "learning_role": "holdout", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0007" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-252", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.08, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C1", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-09", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/vote_menu_119_2.htm", "line": "Roll Call Votes 119th Congress - 2nd Session (2026)" }, "notes": "Cloture on the motion to proceed to S. 4784 already failed 50 to 46 on 14 July 2026 and no re-filed motion is on the record. The Senate's published 2026 calendar puts it in session only from 14 September to 2 October before a state work period running 5 October to 6 November, so the entire opportunity is eighteen weekday session days in which twelve unfinished appropriations bills also compete for floor time. The firm locks this expecting NO and publishes it either way; the calendar, not the politics, is the binding constraint. Resolution rule: YES if a roll call vote on a motion to invoke cloture on any NDAA vehicle (S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended, or a successor) appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. A voice vote, a unanimous consent agreement, or a filed but unvoted cloture motion does not count. NO otherwise. Resolved 2026-10-09 by Zacharias: No recorded cloture vote on an FY2027 NDAA measure between lock (10 Sep 2026) and 9 Oct 2026; the Senate's last vote was 256 on 30 Sep, and it does not return until 9 Nov. The 14 Jul vote (195) predates the claim.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C1", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm (roll call votes of the 119th Congress, 2nd session)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a roll call vote on a motion to invoke cloture on any NDAA vehicle (S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended, or a successor) appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. A voice vote, a unanimous consent agreement, or a filed but unvoted cloture motion does not count. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "senate-floor-2026-autumn", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0008" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-253", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.1, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C2", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-09", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/", "line": "The Senate will return for business on Monday, November 9th at 3:00 p.m. At that time, following any Leader remarks, the Senate will resume consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R.2347 Survivor Justice Tax Prevention Act; the legislative vehicle for the permitting reform bill." }, "notes": "The 30 calendar day review period under 22 U.S.C. 2776(b)(1) runs from the 4 September transmittals and closes about 4 October 2026; Saudi Arabia is not among the partners eligible for the 15 day period under 2776(b)(2). The Senate leaves for a state work period on 2 October, two days before the review closes, so a privileged resolution would have to be discharged and voted inside the September session weeks. The firm locks this expecting NO. Resolution rule: YES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise. Resolved 2026-10-09 by Zacharias: No vote on either transmittal appears between 4 and 30 September. The roll call list for that stretch covers only nominations, the student-athlete bill, Iran war powers and other matters. With the Senate out until 9 November, nothing can be added before 9 October. The September votes can't trigger the same start-date problem as the NDAA card, because both transmittals were only notified on 4 September.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C2", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm and https://www.congress.gov (joint resolutions of disapproval under 22 U.S.C. 2776)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "senate-floor-2026-autumn", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0009" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-254", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-05", "p": 0.5, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C3", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-10-05", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/", "line": "U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed the orderly departure of U.S. forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base, Sept. 30, marking the end of the Operation Inherent Resolve mission in Iraq." }, "notes": "The 27 September 2024 United States and Iraq joint statement provides for coalition operations from an Iraqi platform continuing until September 2026, and Iraqi officials describe 30 September 2026 as the fixed and final date. No CENTCOM release between early August and 8 September 2026 mentions the withdrawal. The claim tests whether the American side marks the date publicly at all, which is the point on which the report's Erbil section rests, since the removal of Patriot and counter rocket, artillery and mortar cover is currently a press only claim. Resolution rule: YES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise. Resolved 2026-10-05 by Zacharias: Official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 says the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or been completed", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C3", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-05", "resolution_source": "https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/ and https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "coalition-iraq-2026-09", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0010" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-255", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "p": 0.4, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C4", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The Missile Defense Agency stated on making the first SHIELD tranche of 1,014 awardees in December 2025 that it would not begin awarding task orders until all awardees were finalised, and no task order has been located since. The twelve space based interceptor vendors completed Gate One in August 2026 and were said to move to prototype build under Gate Two, which normally requires new obligation. Against that, the fiscal year 2027 Golden Dome request is roughly 97 percent inside the reconciliation package and the continuing resolution carries no Golden Dome anomaly, so the question is whether prior year balances carry any new award at all. Resolution rule: YES if a daily contract announcement dated between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive names a Golden Dome, space based interceptor or SHIELD award or task order. A modification to an existing agreement counts only if the announcement identifies it as a new task order. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C4", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-16", "resolution_source": "https://www.war.gov/News/Contracts/ daily contract announcements", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a daily contract announcement dated between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive names a Golden Dome, space based interceptor or SHIELD award or task order. A modification to an existing agreement counts only if the announcement identifies it as a new task order. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "golden-dome-awards-2026-q4", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0011" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-256", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.1, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C5", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the claim that falsifies the report's thesis, and the firm states the bar's weakness alongside it: both chambers' budget resolutions carry $60 billion for defence against the $350 billion requested, so a measure at the resolution level clears $50 billion while funding barely a sixth of the ask. The mechanical bar is sequencing rather than appetite. No concurrent budget resolution has been adopted, so no reconciliation instructions exist and no privileged bill can move; the Senate has seventeen weekday session days between the 3 November election and the 11 December continuing resolution expiry, and CSIS reports Republicans planning a further reconciliation vehicle for after the midterms. Resolution rule: YES if a measure signed into law on or before 31 December 2026 was considered under reconciliation procedures and provides at least $50,000,000,000 in new budget authority to the Department of Defense as stated in the enrolled text or in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for that measure. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C5", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "https://www.congress.gov and https://www.govinfo.gov (public laws of the 119th Congress)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a measure signed into law on or before 31 December 2026 was considered under reconciliation procedures and provides at least $50,000,000,000 in new budget authority to the Department of Defense as stated in the enrolled text or in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for that measure. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-defense-reconciliation-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0012" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-257", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "p": 0.6, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C6", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This replaces the planning slate's Product Service Code 13xx threshold of $25 billion, which was unreachable on the series: full year 13xx obligations were $11.11 billion in fiscal 2024 and $10.83 billion in fiscal 2025. The 14xx series measures the war's actual procurement response. Fiscal 2026 obligations from October through June stood at $28.81 billion against $15.10 billion in the same period of fiscal 2025, and September alone carried 42 percent and 25 percent of the annual total in the two preceding years, so the threshold sits above a straight extrapolation and below an unchanged September share. Data is published with roughly a 90 day lag, which the 15 December read date accommodates. Resolution rule: YES if the sum of Department of Defense contract obligations for fiscal year 2026 under all Product Service Codes beginning 14 exceeds $38,000,000,000 when queried on 15 December 2026. The query is the same one the firm ran on 9 September 2026 and is recorded in chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_obligations.csv. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C6", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-15", "resolution_source": "https://api.usaspending.gov (spending by category, Product Service Code, awarding agency Department of Defense, contract award types A through D, fiscal year 2026)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if the sum of Department of Defense contract obligations for fiscal year 2026 under all Product Service Codes beginning 14 exceeds $38,000,000,000 when queried on 15 December 2026. The query is the same one the firm ran on 9 September 2026 and is recorded in chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_obligations.csv. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-missile-obligations-fy2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0013" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-258", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "p": 0.18, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C7", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The threshold is the planning slate's and is retained at the principal's direction; the probability carries the firm's own analysis, which points the other way. The annual base rate is high, at 103 approvals worth EUR 82.98 billion in calendar 2025 and 44 by 8 July 2026, but the 2026 count has not moved since 8 July and the Bundesministerium der Verteidigung's own planning document schedules only eight proposals inside this window. That plan has been wrong in both directions, having scheduled three for the 8 July sitting that approved sixteen and twelve for a February sitting that approved two. No Bundestag page publishes a running count, which is why the resolution rule names the ministry's press stream and states a tolerance. The firm expects this to resolve NO and publishes it because a scorecard that only carries comfortable claims is not a scorecard. Resolution rule: YES if the count of individual proposals reported as approved by the Haushaltsausschuss in BMVg press releases dated between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive is 20 or more, with a tolerance of plus or minus two proposals where the BMVg release and contemporaneous trade reporting disagree on a single sitting. Where the BMVg release states a count, that count governs. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C7", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-07", "resolution_source": "Bundesministerium der Verteidigung press releases indexed from https://www.bmvg.de/de/beschaffung-25-millionen-euro-vorlagen", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if the count of individual proposals reported as approved by the Haushaltsausschuss in BMVg press releases dated between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive is 20 or more, with a tolerance of plus or minus two proposals where the BMVg release and contemporaneous trade reporting disagree on a single sitting. Where the BMVg release states a count, that count governs. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "german-procurement-2026-autumn", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0014" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-259", "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026, that initial Grade A nitrocellulose production capability has been achieved at Radford Army Ammunition Plant.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.15, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0015", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The only public carrier of a fourth-quarter FY2026 target for initial Grade A nitrocellulose capability at Radford is Inside Defense, reporting an Army energetics report that has not been published, and no Army document reachable in this collection pass states the milestone. Two conditions must both hold for a TRUE: the capability must be achieved, and the Army must say so in public inside three months of the fiscal-year close. The Army published no rate or capability statement on this facility through 10 September 2026 despite publishing repeatedly on other ammunition facilities in 2026, which is the main reason the number is low rather than moderate. No defensible empirical base rate was available at lock. Resolution rule: TRUE only if, on or before 31 December 2026, one of the following is published and states that initial production capability, initial operating capability, or initial production of Grade A nitrocellulose has been achieved or commenced at Radford Army Ammunition Plant: (a) a news release or article on cpeae.army.mil or army.mil; (b) testimony or a written statement for the record submitted by an Army or Department of War official to a committee of Congress; or (c) a Department of the Army budget justification document or exhibit. A trade-press report describing an unpublished government document, including any report of the Army energetics report written to the FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act requirement, does NOT resolve this claim, whether or not the outlet quotes the document. A report by any outlet that quotes a named official making the statement in public does resolve it, because the resolving act is the public official statement rather than the outlet. A statement that the facility has been commissioned, constructed, opened or ribbon-cut, without a statement that production or production capability has been achieved, does NOT resolve it TRUE. Absent a qualifying statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0015", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "Public statements of the United States Army and of the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics: https://www.cpeae.army.mil/News/ and https://www.army.mil/news/, congressional testimony published by the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, and Department of the Army budget justification material published at https://www.asafm.army.mil/Budget-Materials/.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "TRUE only if, on or before 31 December 2026, one of the following is published and states that initial production capability, initial operating capability, or initial production of Grade A nitrocellulose has been achieved or commenced at Radford Army Ammunition Plant: (a) a news release or article on cpeae.army.mil or army.mil; (b) testimony or a written statement for the record submitted by an Army or Department of War official to a committee of Congress; or (c) a Department of the Army budget justification document or exhibit. A trade-press report describing an unpublished government document, including any report of the Army energetics report written to the FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act requirement, does NOT resolve this claim, whether or not the outlet quotes the document. A report by any outlet that quotes a named official making the statement in public does resolve it, because the resolving act is the public official statement rather than the outlet. A statement that the facility has been commissioned, constructed, opened or ribbon-cut, without a statement that production or production capability has been achieved, does NOT resolve it TRUE. Absent a qualifying statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-nitrocellulose-radford-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0015" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-260", "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from USAspending.gov on 16 November 2026, will be 5.9 billion United States dollars, with an interval of 5.0 billion to 8.5 billion United States dollars.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked point and interval approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0016; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The slate's draft threshold of 25 billion dollars on PSC 13xx is not supportable on the retrieved series and is rebuilt here on the series the data support. Derivation: the Collector's pull gives DoD PSC 13 obligations of 5.53 billion (FY2022), 9.96 billion (FY2023), 11.11 billion (FY2024), 10.83 billion (FY2025) and 4.739 billion for FY2026 through 9 September 2026. That partial year covers 344 of 365 days, or 94.2 per cent, so a pro-rata full year at the same daily rate is 4.739 / 0.942 = 5.03 billion dollars, which sets the low bound: obligations rise from here except for de-obligations. The central of 5.9 billion applies a judged uplift of about 17 per cent over that floor for the year-end obligation surge in the final three weeks plus post-year-end settlement of award records. The high bound of 8.5 billion is the level at which the final three weeks and settlement would have to carry more than 40 per cent of the year, which lumpy multi-year ammunition awards make possible but which no year in the FY2022 to FY2025 series suggests is likely; a value at or above 11 billion, restoring the FY2024 to FY2025 plateau, is judged outside the interval. The firm does not hold the FY2022 to FY2025 as-of-9-September snapshots that would have converted this judgment into a measured ratio, so the uplift is a judgment call: No defensible empirical base rate was available at lock. The 25 billion dollar figure in the slate is almost certainly the FY2026 reconciliation munitions procurement line, a multi-year appropriation available to 30 September 2029 and not a single-year obligation total in any product group; PSC 14 (guided missiles) is the series that runs at 23 to 32 billion dollars a year. Challenger note, 10 September 2026: the derivation was recomputed independently and reproduces. 344 of 365 days is 94.25 per cent; 4.7389 / 0.9425 is 5.028 billion, the low bound. A full year of 8.5 billion would require the residual 3.761 billion to be 44.2 per cent of the year, which is the \"more than 40 per cent\" the high bound describes. The stated query was executed against the live endpoint on 10 September 2026 and returned 4,738,916,734.34 dollars, matching chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_by_fy.csv exactly. Resolution rule: Resolved by a single read of the USAspending.gov API v2 spending_over_time endpoint on 16 November 2026, using this request body exactly: {\"group\": \"fiscal_year\", \"subawards\": false, \"filters\": {\"time_period\": [{\"start_date\": \"2025-10-01\", \"end_date\": \"2026-09-30\", \"date_type\": \"action_date\"}], \"psc_codes\": {\"require\": [[\"Product\", \"13\"]]}, \"agencies\": [{\"type\": \"awarding\", \"tier\": \"toptier\", \"name\": \"Department of Defense\"}]}}. Three parameters are stated explicitly because each of them moves the number and neither is the same under a plausible alternative choice: date_type must be action_date, because date_type \"date_signed\" returned $3.832 billion against action_date's $4.739 billion on the same filters on 10 September 2026, a 19 per cent difference; subawards must be false, because subawards true returned $1.738 billion on the same filters on the same date; and award_type_codes is deliberately omitted, which was verified on 10 September 2026 to return the identical value to an explicit contracts-only list and to a contracts-plus-IDV list, because the product-code filter already confines the result to procurement. The field read is aggregated_amount for the single FY2026 row returned, expressed in United States dollars and converted to billions. On the awarding-agency name: the toptier agency is read as whatever name USAspending then uses for the agency currently published as \"Department of Defense\" (toptier code 097). On 10 September 2026 the literal string \"Department of War\" returned $0 on this endpoint, so a zero or near-zero result is to be treated as a query failure and the agency name re-checked against the endpoint's agency autocomplete before the claim is scored, never as a reading of the series. The claim scores as a hit if the value falls at or between 5.0 and 8.5 billion dollars, and the point score is the absolute difference between the read value and 5.9 billion dollars. If the endpoint or the filter syntax has changed by the resolution date, the equivalent query on the successor endpoint is used and the substitution is recorded. The read date is fixed at 16 November 2026 and is not moved for data completeness, because the series continues to settle after fiscal year end and a floating read date would make the claim unscorable.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0016", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-16", "resolution_source": "USAspending.gov API v2, endpoint POST https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/, read on 16 November 2026.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "Resolved by a single read of the USAspending.gov API v2 spending_over_time endpoint on 16 November 2026, using this request body exactly: {\"group\": \"fiscal_year\", \"subawards\": false, \"filters\": {\"time_period\": [{\"start_date\": \"2025-10-01\", \"end_date\": \"2026-09-30\", \"date_type\": \"action_date\"}], \"psc_codes\": {\"require\": [[\"Product\", \"13\"]]}, \"agencies\": [{\"type\": \"awarding\", \"tier\": \"toptier\", \"name\": \"Department of Defense\"}]}}. Three parameters are stated explicitly because each of them moves the number and neither is the same under a plausible alternative choice: date_type must be action_date, because date_type \"date_signed\" returned $3.832 billion against action_date's $4.739 billion on the same filters on 10 September 2026, a 19 per cent difference; subawards must be false, because subawards true returned $1.738 billion on the same filters on the same date; and award_type_codes is deliberately omitted, which was verified on 10 September 2026 to return the identical value to an explicit contracts-only list and to a contracts-plus-IDV list, because the product-code filter already confines the result to procurement. The field read is aggregated_amount for the single FY2026 row returned, expressed in United States dollars and converted to billions. On the awarding-agency name: the toptier agency is read as whatever name USAspending then uses for the agency currently published as \"Department of Defense\" (toptier code 097). On 10 September 2026 the literal string \"Department of War\" returned $0 on this endpoint, so a zero or near-zero result is to be treated as a query failure and the agency name re-checked against the endpoint's agency autocomplete before the claim is scored, never as a reading of the series. The claim scores as a hit if the value falls at or between 5.0 and 8.5 billion dollars, and the point score is the absolute difference between the read value and 5.9 billion dollars. If the endpoint or the filter syntax has changed by the resolution date, the equivalent query on the successor endpoint is used and the substitution is recorded. The read date is fixed at 16 November 2026 and is not moved for data completeness, because the series continues to settle after fiscal year end and a floating read date would make the claim unscorable." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-munitions-obligations-fy2026", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 5.0, "central": 5.9, "hi": 8.5, "unit": "United States dollars, billions, nominal, contract obligations" }, "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0016" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-261", "brief": "feedstock-before-firepower", "desk": "defense", "statement": "A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War Inspector General or Government Accountability Office product, issued on or before 31 December 2026, states a 155mm load, assemble and pack rate of 63,000 rounds per month or more for any month up to and including November 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.12, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0017", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "DOWIG-2026-095 records a load, assemble and pack rate of 36,000 rounds per month as of March 2026 against milestones of 63,000 by September 2026 and 140,000 by December 2027, and states that the Army is eleven months behind its planned production milestones. Reaching 63,000 by September 2026 would require a 75 per cent increase in six months at a stage that took four years to move from 14,000 to 36,000, and the metal-parts layer above it supplied only 46,000 parts a month at the same date. The claim also carries a publication condition: even a rate at or above 63,000 resolves it FALSE unless it is stated publicly by 31 December 2026, and the Army published no rate figure later than March 2026 through 10 September 2026. Both conditions failing is the strong expectation. No defensible empirical base rate was available at lock. Resolution rule: TRUE only if a document or statement in one of the named classes, published on or before 31 December 2026, states a United States 155mm load, assemble and pack rate, or an all-up-round production rate, of 63,000 rounds per month or more for a named month falling on or before 30 November 2026. The figure must be a stated actual or achieved rate. A planned rate, a projected rate, a milestone, a goal, a capacity figure, a design capacity, a contractor-stated capacity, or a rate expressed for a month after November 2026 does NOT resolve it TRUE. A metal-parts rate does not resolve it, because the claim is on the load, assemble and pack stage; where a document reports both, the load, assemble and pack figure governs. A statement by a named official reported by any outlet resolves it, because the resolving act is the public official statement. Absent such a statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0017", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "Public statements of the United States Army and of the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics (https://www.cpeae.army.mil/News/, https://www.army.mil/news/), congressional testimony, and reports published by the Department of War Office of Inspector General (https://www.dodig.mil/Reports/ and https://www.oversight.gov/) or the Government Accountability Office (https://www.gao.gov/).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "TRUE only if a document or statement in one of the named classes, published on or before 31 December 2026, states a United States 155mm load, assemble and pack rate, or an all-up-round production rate, of 63,000 rounds per month or more for a named month falling on or before 30 November 2026. The figure must be a stated actual or achieved rate. A planned rate, a projected rate, a milestone, a goal, a capacity figure, a design capacity, a contractor-stated capacity, or a rate expressed for a month after November 2026 does NOT resolve it TRUE. A metal-parts rate does not resolve it, because the claim is on the load, assemble and pack stage; where a document reports both, the load, assemble and pack figure governs. A statement by a named official reported by any outlet resolves it, because the resolving act is the public official statement. Absent such a statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-155mm-production-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0017" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-262", "brief": "forty-seven-days-to-november-10", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-10", "p": 0.25, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-MIN-26-004; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0018", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-10", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.cirs-group.com/en/chemicals", "line": "Official policy shifts or extensions regarding major trade suspensions like Announcement No. 70 are typically synchronized with higher-level diplomatic meetings, or timed right before the actual expiration date (November 10, 2026). Furthermore, today is a Saturday, and both MOFCOM and White House press offices rarely drop major, non-emergency bilateral trade announcements over the weekend." }, "notes": "This is the analyst's own judgment, not a model output. The precedent argues for NO. Announcement No. 70 of 2025 published on 7 November 2025, three days before the instruments it forestalled would have bitten in full and six days after the White House fact sheet of 1 November 2025 that announced the arrangement; mapped onto the current calendar that lag falls in late October or early November, well past a 10 October cutoff. The 2026 record adds a second observation: the May 2026 Beijing state visit produced White House fact-sheet language on yttrium, scandium and indium and no Chinese instrument on rare earths, and no statement on whether the November expiry would be extended. So two leader-level meetings in ten months produced one extension instrument between them, and that one published late. Decomposed: P(the 24 September summit produces any rare-earth deliverable) is the dominant term and the reported United States ask is licence throughput rather than the suspension itself, which puts it near 0.5; P(the deliverable is written in a form that clears scoring notes 3 and 4, that is a White House fact sheet or a numbered instrument covering all six) near 0.6, since the November 2025 fact sheet did clear that bar but a summit whose deliverables are agriculture and tariff lines may produce only spokesperson language; P(published on or before 10 October given both) near 0.85, since a fact sheet issues on the day and the summit sits 16 days before the cutoff. That product is about 0.26. The White House limb is the main upward pressure: a fact sheet stating that China will extend resolves YES with no Chinese instrument at all, and scoring note 6 adds a repeal path. 0.25 is consistent with this brief's own Outlook, in which the extension appears only in Stabilization, carried at Low to Moderate construction confidence. Resolution rule: Resolves YES if, at any time from the lock date up to and including 23:59 Beijing time on 10 October 2026, either (a) a numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC announcement appears on the 2026 announcements index whose text extends, prolongs or replaces the suspension set by Announcement No. 70 of 2025 to a date later than 10 November 2026, or (b) a White House fact sheet or equivalent official White House statement states that China will extend, or has agreed to extend, that suspension beyond 10 November 2026. Otherwise resolves NO. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An announcement that extends the suspension without naming an end date resolves YES, because the suspension is thereby not lapsing on 10 November 2026; the absence of an end date is recorded in the resolution note but does not change the score. (2) An announcement made after 10 October 2026 but before 10 November 2026 resolves NO. The claim is about the timing of the announcement, not about whether the suspension ultimately lapses. (3) A statement by an official, a spokesperson or a press-conference transcript that is not a numbered MOFCOM instrument and not a White House fact sheet or equivalent official written White House statement does not resolve YES on its own. (4) An announcement covering only some of the six named instruments resolves NO unless all six are extended. (5) An instrument extending only the suspension of clause two of Announcement No. 46 of 2024, which runs to 27 November 2026 under Announcement No. 72 of 2025, does not resolve this claim YES, because that is a separate instrument. (6) Repeal or permanent removal of all six instruments, rather than extension of their suspension, resolves YES. Resolved 2026-10-10 by Zacharias: MOFCOM or MOFCOM and GACC have not released an announcement extending, prolonging or replacing the suspension set by Announcement No. 70 of 2025 beyond 10 November 2026 for all six named instruments, or repealing all six, neither has a White House fact sheet or official written statement been released saying China will extend or has agreed to extend it.", "source": { "location": "AIG-MIN-26-004, forward tranche MFG-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0018", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-10", "resolution_source": "MOFCOM announcements index, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2026/index.html, or a White House fact sheet published on whitehouse.gov", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Resolves YES if, at any time from the lock date up to and including 23:59 Beijing time on 10 October 2026, either (a) a numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC announcement appears on the 2026 announcements index whose text extends, prolongs or replaces the suspension set by Announcement No. 70 of 2025 to a date later than 10 November 2026, or (b) a White House fact sheet or equivalent official White House statement states that China will extend, or has agreed to extend, that suspension beyond 10 November 2026. Otherwise resolves NO. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An announcement that extends the suspension without naming an end date resolves YES, because the suspension is thereby not lapsing on 10 November 2026; the absence of an end date is recorded in the resolution note but does not change the score. (2) An announcement made after 10 October 2026 but before 10 November 2026 resolves NO. The claim is about the timing of the announcement, not about whether the suspension ultimately lapses. (3) A statement by an official, a spokesperson or a press-conference transcript that is not a numbered MOFCOM instrument and not a White House fact sheet or equivalent official written White House statement does not resolve YES on its own. (4) An announcement covering only some of the six named instruments resolves NO unless all six are extended. (5) An instrument extending only the suspension of clause two of Announcement No. 46 of 2024, which runs to 27 November 2026 under Announcement No. 72 of 2025, does not resolve this claim YES, because that is a separate instrument. (6) Repeal or permanent removal of all six instruments, rather than extension of their suspension, resolves YES." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-rare-earth-suspension-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0018" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-263", "brief": "forty-seven-days-to-november-10", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "p": 0.92, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-MIN-26-004; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0019", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the analyst's own judgment, not a model output. It tests the load-bearing separability claim in this brief: that the base layer of the licensing regime and the suspended October 2025 layer are different questions. Announcement No. 70 of 2025 suspends by enumeration and does not name Announcement No. 18 of 2025, and no MOFCOM instrument creating general licences was found on either index. The probability is high because the resolution rule is narrow: the only NO path is a numbered MOFCOM instrument suspending, repealing or replacing Announcement 18 within eight weeks, and the brief's own view is that no such instrument is under discussion. State the limit plainly. This claim scores easily and it earns little. It tests whether an instrument survives on an index, not whether the constraint continues to bind. A world in which MOFCOM leaves Announcement 18 formally in force and quietly clears the United States licence queue resolves this claim YES while falsifying the brief's operational conclusion. The claim that would test the operative variable is a tonnage threshold on GACC detailed data for a named controlled element, which the desk cannot currently resolve because gap G4 is open and the GACC detailed release is not reliably reachable; it is recommended to the manager for the next cycle rather than proposed here. Resolution rule: Resolves YES if, as of 23:59 Beijing time on 10 November 2026, no numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC instrument published on the 2025 or 2026 announcements indices suspends, repeals or replaces MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 of 4 April 2025 in whole. Resolves NO if such an instrument exists on the index by that time. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An instrument that suspends Announcement No. 18 of 2025 in part, for example for a named element or a named class of end user, resolves NO, and the scorer records which part. (2) An administrative facility such as a general licence, a streamlined process or a case-by-case approval commitment, whether described by a MOFCOM spokesperson, a press-conference transcript, a Chinese state media report or a White House fact sheet, does not resolve NO, because it is not an instrument on the announcements index. (3) An instrument that adds elements to, or otherwise tightens, the Announcement 18 regime resolves YES, because the announcement remains in force. (4) If the MOFCOM index is unreachable on the resolution date, the scorer waits until it is reachable and scores against the index state as of the resolution date.", "source": { "location": "AIG-MIN-26-004, forward tranche MFG-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0019", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-10", "resolution_source": "MOFCOM announcements index, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2026/index.html, checked together with the 2025 index at https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2025/index.html", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Resolves YES if, as of 23:59 Beijing time on 10 November 2026, no numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC instrument published on the 2025 or 2026 announcements indices suspends, repeals or replaces MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 of 4 April 2025 in whole. Resolves NO if such an instrument exists on the index by that time. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An instrument that suspends Announcement No. 18 of 2025 in part, for example for a named element or a named class of end user, resolves NO, and the scorer records which part. (2) An administrative facility such as a general licence, a streamlined process or a case-by-case approval commitment, whether described by a MOFCOM spokesperson, a press-conference transcript, a Chinese state media report or a White House fact sheet, does not resolve NO, because it is not an instrument on the announcements index. (3) An instrument that adds elements to, or otherwise tightens, the Announcement 18 regime resolves YES, because the announcement remains in force. (4) If the MOFCOM index is unreachable on the resolution date, the scorer waits until it is reachable and scores against the index state as of the resolution date." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-announcement-18-status-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0019" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-264", "brief": "after-the-duma", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its official determination of the results of the 18 to 20 September 2026 election.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-05", "p": 0.8, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-005; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0020", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-10-05", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1118444", "line": "\"Единая Россия\" получает 349 мандатов в Думе. По итогам выборов в Госдуму \"Единая Россия\" получает 349 мандатов, КПРФ - 37, ЛДПР - 23, \"Новые люди\" - 19, \"Справедливая Россия\" - 17 мандатов... 140 по федеральному округу и 209 - по одномандатным округам." }, "notes": "United Russia won 324 seats in 2021; its VCIOM rating rose through August 2026, an INSOMAR projection put it above half the list vote, and Yabloko was removed from the ballot. The 0.80 probability is an analyst judgment, held below near-certainty because no published seat projection was available and the new single-member districts and expanded remote voting remain untested. Horizon is measured from the 11 September 2026 issue date. Resolution rule: YES if the CEC's official determination credits United Russia with 300 or more seats, summing federal-list and single-member seats before later transfers, refusals, redistributions, or by-elections. Exactly 300 is YES; 299 is NO. Seats credited to United Russia nominees count; independents do not, even if they later join its faction. Score when the later of the two components is officially determined. If the CEC is unreachable, use Interfax Russian-language reporting of the determination; if that is also unreachable, use Rossiyskaya Gazeta; if all three are unreachable, require two independent allowlisted outlets to agree on the CEC-attributed total. The highest-priority reachable source governs any disagreement, which must be recorded. If no determination exists by 5 October, resolve when it is published and record the delay; do not infer a result from projections. Resolved 2026-10-05 by Zacharias: The rule names the CEC first and, if it is unreachable, Interfax Russian-language reporting. In this session cikrf.ru refused the connection twice (ECONNREFUSED), so the rule's fallback applies. On 25 September 2026 Interfax reported that the CEC's results credit United Russia with 349 of 450 seats: 140 on the party list and 209 in single-member districts.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-005, forward tranche POL-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0020", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-05", "resolution_source": "cikrf.ru; Interfax Russian-language reporting; Rossiyskaya Gazeta; or two independent allowlisted outlets, in that order", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES if the CEC's official determination credits United Russia with 300 or more seats, summing federal-list and single-member seats before later transfers, refusals, redistributions, or by-elections. Exactly 300 is YES; 299 is NO. Seats credited to United Russia nominees count; independents do not, even if they later join its faction. Score when the later of the two components is officially determined. If the CEC is unreachable, use Interfax Russian-language reporting of the determination; if that is also unreachable, use Rossiyskaya Gazeta; if all three are unreachable, require two independent allowlisted outlets to agree on the CEC-attributed total. The highest-priority reachable source governs any disagreement, which must be recorded. If no determination exists by 5 October, resolve when it is published and record the delay; do not infer a result from projections." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "russia-duma-seats-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0020" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-265", "brief": "after-the-duma", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three governments publicly acknowledge as trilateral, on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.55, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-005; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0021", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-09", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/4/ukraine-ready-for-us-backed-talks-with-russia-zelenskyy", "line": "Ukraine ready for US-backed talks with Russia: Zelenskyy ... the US is pushing for \"technical-level talks by the end of October\" ... Kyiv is open to the UAE or \"another country proposed by the American side.\"" }, "notes": "The trilateral format exists and Moscow said on 9 September that agreement had been reached to resume it, but no date, venue, or level was fixed. The physical co-location, seniority, and three-government acknowledgment requirements make this a higher bar than resumed contacts. The 0.55 probability is an analyst judgment. Horizon is measured from the 11 September 2026 issue date. Resolution rule: YES only if all three governments are physically represented in the same negotiating session and each delegation includes at least one head of state or government, minister, presidential or prime-ministerial envoy, presidential aide, national security adviser, security-council secretary, national intelligence-service head, or chief of the general staff. Deputy ministers, ambassadors, departmental directors, technical delegates, telephone or video calls, shuttle diplomacy, and proximity without evidence of a shared room do not count. All three governments must acknowledge the trilateral meeting through the named official channels. For the United States, an official White House or State Department readout reproduced in the Congressional Record or Federal Register qualifies. A joint statement issued by all three governments satisfies all acknowledgment limbs. If the meeting is acknowledged but shared-room evidence is absent by 9 October, or if only two governments acknowledge it, resolve NO. A qualifying meeting announced before but held after 9 October resolves NO. Resolved 2026-10-09 by Zacharias: No meeting on or before 9 October 2026 from the day this PMR was written.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-005, forward tranche POL-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0021", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "kremlin.ru or mid.ru; president.gov.ua or mfa.gov.ua; and whitehouse.gov or an official White House or State Department readout carried in the Congressional Record or Federal Register", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES only if all three governments are physically represented in the same negotiating session and each delegation includes at least one head of state or government, minister, presidential or prime-ministerial envoy, presidential aide, national security adviser, security-council secretary, national intelligence-service head, or chief of the general staff. Deputy ministers, ambassadors, departmental directors, technical delegates, telephone or video calls, shuttle diplomacy, and proximity without evidence of a shared room do not count. All three governments must acknowledge the trilateral meeting through the named official channels. For the United States, an official White House or State Department readout reproduced in the Congressional Record or Federal Register qualifies. A joint statement issued by all three governments satisfies all acknowledgment limbs. If the meeting is acknowledged but shared-room evidence is absent by 9 October, or if only two governments acknowledge it, resolve NO. A qualifying meeting announced before but held after 9 October resolves NO." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "russia-ukraine-trilateral-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0021" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-266", "brief": "three-percent-on-paper", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-11", "p": 0.12, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-006; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0022", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-10", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.mnd.gov.tw/news/plaact/87883", "line": "23 PLA aircraft detected, of which 16 crossed the median line and entered the northern, central and southwestern airspace" }, "notes": "No report in the 91-report 11 June to 9 September series reached 30 ADIZ entries; the maximum was 26. The probability is raised above that observed zero for the PRC and ROC national-day window and exercise risk, then restrained because no Eastern Theater Command exercise announcement was found and 2026 air activity was running below 2025. This is an analyst judgment, not an automated model output. Resolution rule: YES if at least one ministry report published from 1 through 10 October states that 30 or more PLA aircraft sorties entered Taiwan's ADIZ. Use the ADIZ-entry count, not total sorties; exactly 30 is YES. Assign each report to its publication date. Reports of no PLA aircraft count as zero. Separate same-day exercise releases do not substitute for the full daily report. If either the official page or named mirror supplies a report, use its published figure without reconstructing third-party counts. An unavailable or count-free report is unresolvable and the claim is scored on the other resolvable days. If all ten days remain unresolvable at 23:59 UTC+8 on 11 October, the claim is VOID rather than NO. Resolved 2026-10-10 by Zacharias: Highest single day: 16 aircraft entered the ADIZ, in the 1 October report. The threshold was 30. Even the total aircraft count never reached 30 (the peak was 23), so no reading of the rule produces a YES.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-006, forward tranche POL-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0022", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-11", "resolution_source": "Republic of China Ministry of National Defense daily PLA-activity reports at https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/news/plaact/, with https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2026/ as the named mirror", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES if at least one ministry report published from 1 through 10 October states that 30 or more PLA aircraft sorties entered Taiwan's ADIZ. Use the ADIZ-entry count, not total sorties; exactly 30 is YES. Assign each report to its publication date. Reports of no PLA aircraft count as zero. Separate same-day exercise releases do not substitute for the full daily report. If either the official page or named mirror supplies a report, use its published figure without reconstructing third-party counts. An unavailable or count-free report is unresolvable and the claim is scored on the other resolvable days. If all ten days remain unresolvable at 23:59 UTC+8 on 11 October, the claim is VOID rather than NO." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "taiwan-adiz-october-2026", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0022" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-267", "brief": "three-percent-on-paper", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2027-01-31", "p": 0.15, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-006; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0023", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Only one of four datable recent budget cycles cleared by 31 December, and the 2026 cycle was exceptionally delayed. Given passage, falling below NT$1.0tn requires a 15.3 percent cut across the votable components after carry-forwards, equivalent to 10.9 percent of the headline aggregate, far above the cited recent defence-line cut. The combined probability is 0.15 and is an analyst judgment. The event cutoff is 31 December; the 31 January resolution date represents the component-verification window. Resolution rule: YES requires third reading of the 2027 central-government general budget on or before 31 December 2026 and a five-component defence aggregate of at least NT$1,000.0 billion at that reading. Sum the Ministry of National Defense general budget, the 2027 special-budget tranche, non-profit special funds, military pensions, and Coast Guard Administration. If a component is published only as a change, apply it to the proposal. If the enacted materials do not separately report the special-budget tranche, military pensions, or non-profit special funds, carry forward the proposed NT$218.2bn, NT$103.8bn, and NT$60.7bn respectively and disclose each substitution. Committee action, second reading, interim funding, continuation of the 2026 budget, and separate supplementary-budget passage do not count. Later reconsideration does not reverse the score. If no third reading occurs by 31 December, resolve NO. If timely third reading occurs but the five components remain unresolvable from the named sources through 31 January 2027 after the carry-forwards, resolve VOID.", "source": { "location": "AIG-GOV-26-006, forward tranche POL-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0023", "window_as_stated": "2027-01-31", "resolution_source": "Legislative Yuan at https://www.ly.gov.tw, with Focus Taiwan at https://focustaiwan.tw as the named mirror", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "YES requires third reading of the 2027 central-government general budget on or before 31 December 2026 and a five-component defence aggregate of at least NT$1,000.0 billion at that reading. Sum the Ministry of National Defense general budget, the 2027 special-budget tranche, non-profit special funds, military pensions, and Coast Guard Administration. If a component is published only as a change, apply it to the proposal. If the enacted materials do not separately report the special-budget tranche, military pensions, or non-profit special funds, carry forward the proposed NT$218.2bn, NT$103.8bn, and NT$60.7bn respectively and disclose each substitution. Committee action, second reading, interim funding, continuation of the 2026 budget, and separate supplementary-budget passage do not count. Later reconsideration does not reverse the score. If no third reading occurs by 31 December, resolve NO. If timely third reading occurs but the five components remain unresolvable from the named sources through 31 January 2027 after the carry-forwards, resolve VOID." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "taiwan-defense-budget-2027", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0023" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-268", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "p": 0.62, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0024", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-02", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026", "line": "Core PCE inflation was 3.0% year over year. Proposed disposition: FALSE." }, "notes": "July core PCE was 3.3 percent and energy pass-through has not broadened decisively. Resolution rule: TRUE if BEA's first published August 2026 core PCE 12-month change is at least 3.3 percent; otherwise FALSE. Window passed on 2026-09-30 with no public source recorded; the website shows it as Open from 2026-10-02. Resolved 2026-10-02 by Zacharias: FALSE, core PCE was 3.0%.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0024", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-30", "resolution_source": "BEA Personal Income and Outlays", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if BEA's first published August 2026 core PCE 12-month change is at least 3.3 percent; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0024" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-269", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-02", "p": 0.38, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0025", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-10-05", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm", "line": "Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in September." }, "notes": "August unemployment was 4.1 percent, with softer participation but solid payroll growth. Resolution rule: TRUE if BLS first reports September unemployment at 4.2 percent or higher; otherwise FALSE. Resolved 2026-10-05 by Zacharias: BLS reported 4.2% unemployment for September 2026", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0025", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-02", "resolution_source": "BLS Employment Situation", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if BLS first reports September unemployment at 4.2 percent or higher; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0025" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-270", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.35, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0026", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Both agencies have proposals outstanding, but finalization timing is uncertain. Resolution rule: TRUE if a final rule from OCC or FDIC implementing GENIUS is published by 23:59 ET; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0026", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "Federal Register", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if a final rule from OCC or FDIC implementing GENIUS is published by 23:59 ET; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0026" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-271", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.38, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0027", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-10", "evidence": { "url": "https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoincharts/all", "line": "{\"date\":\"1791504000\", ... \"totalCirculatingUSD\":{\"peggedUSD\":311611497263, ... \"peggedEUR\":823585998, ... \"peggedRUB\":551057812, ...}} (timestamp 1791504000 = 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC; peggedUSD ≈ $311.61bn; all 28 peg types summed ≈ $313.31bn)" }, "notes": "The threshold is about $8 billion above the 9 September reading after a $6.2 billion contraction since June. Resolution rule: TRUE if the API daily total for 9 October is at least $320 billion; otherwise FALSE. Resolved 2026-10-10 by Zacharias: Stablecoin market capitalization has not reached 320 billion US dollars as of 10 Oct 2026", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C4; engine record AIG-FWD-0027", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "DefiLlama stablecoin charts API", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if the API daily total for 9 October is at least $320 billion; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0027" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-272", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-14", "p": 0.7, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0028", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The current pause is temporary by design and October cash needs increase. Resolution rule: TRUE if the schedule explicitly states RMPs above zero; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C5; engine record AIG-FWD-0028", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-14", "resolution_source": "New York Fed Treasury Securities Operational Details", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if the schedule explicitly states RMPs above zero; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0028" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-273", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.68, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0029", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The spread was already positive before October issuance rises. Resolution rule: Use the latest common business-day observation on or before 31 October; TRUE if DTB3 is at least IORB, otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C6; engine record AIG-FWD-0029", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "FRED DTB3 and IORB", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Use the latest common business-day observation on or before 31 October; TRUE if DTB3 is at least IORB, otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0029" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-274", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.78, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0030", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Treasury projected a late-October peak near $1.05 trillion. Resolution rule: TRUE if any October closing operating cash balance is above $1,000,000 million; otherwise FALSE.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C7; engine record AIG-FWD-0030", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "Daily Treasury Statement operating cash balance", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "TRUE if any October closing operating cash balance is above $1,000,000 million; otherwise FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0030" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-275", "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "desk": "defense", "statement": "At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2), meaning conduct described at 6 U.S.C. 124n(b)(1)(C), (D) or (F) and not detection, warning or confiscation by hand, occurring anywhere in the United States between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, is publicly reported by 31 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p": 0.2, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-DEF-26-008; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0031", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This claim tests public reporting, not operations. The 48-hour post-operation report required by 6 CFR 124.13(a) is filed to a closed federal coordination portal and nothing in section 124.13 requires publication of an individual report, so a mitigation action can occur and leave no public trace inside the horizon; the first scheduled public accounting is the report to Congress due by 18 December 2026, after this resolution date. The probability is set low because at a National Special Security Event section 124.10(c) puts a federal agency in the lead, the World Cup precedent produced more than 700 seizures with no reported SLTT-independent mitigation, and only 61 officers across about 46 agencies were certified as of 1 July 2026. Base rate for a public report of an SLTT mitigation action within a ten-day National Special Security Event window: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Class match for first-year public disclosure behaviour under a new federal-state authority: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Resolution rule: Scores YES only if a source in the resolution_source list, published on or before 31 October 2026, states that a named or unnamed SLTT law enforcement or correctional agency disrupted control of, seized or exercised control of, or used force to disable, damage or destroy an unmanned aircraft, in the United States, on a date between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, and either states that the agency acted under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2) or 6 CFR part 124, or describes the action in terms that exclude action as a federally deputized task force officer. Detection, identification, monitoring, tracking, warning of an operator, and physical confiscation of a landed or recovered aircraft do NOT score YES. A federal agency taking the action does not score YES. An action outside 18 to 28 September 2026 does not score YES. THE ABSENCE OF ANY PUBLIC REPORT SCORES NO. Ambiguity about whether the acting officers were deputized scores NO. The claim is scored on what is publicly readable on 31 October 2026; a later disclosure, including the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) report due by 18 December 2026, does not reopen it.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-008, forward item DEF-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0031", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-31", "resolution_source": "Any of the following, checked in this order on 31 October 2026: (1) fbi.gov newsroom and FBI New York field office news page; (2) dhs.gov and secretservice.gov newsrooms; (3) justice.gov Office of Legal Policy counter-UAS pages and Southern and Eastern District of New York press releases; (4) faa.gov newsroom; (5) nyc.gov NYPD newsroom and Mayor's Office press releases; (6) any allowlisted Tier 3 outlet (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, WaPo, FT, BBC) reporting such an action; (7) the FCC Electronic Comment Filing System and Federal Register for any agency filing describing such an action.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Scores YES only if a source in the resolution_source list, published on or before 31 October 2026, states that a named or unnamed SLTT law enforcement or correctional agency disrupted control of, seized or exercised control of, or used force to disable, damage or destroy an unmanned aircraft, in the United States, on a date between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, and either states that the agency acted under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2) or 6 CFR part 124, or describes the action in terms that exclude action as a federally deputized task force officer. Detection, identification, monitoring, tracking, warning of an operator, and physical confiscation of a landed or recovered aircraft do NOT score YES. A federal agency taking the action does not score YES. An action outside 18 to 28 September 2026 does not score YES. THE ABSENCE OF ANY PUBLIC REPORT SCORES NO. Ambiguity about whether the acting officers were deputized scores NO. The claim is scored on what is publicly readable on 31 October 2026; a later disclosure, including the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) report due by 18 December 2026, does not reopen it." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-lead-agency-rule", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0031" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-276", "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or specific systems, is published in a publicly readable form not requiring law-enforcement credentials, on or before 31 December 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.55, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-DEF-26-008; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0032", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The resolution date is chosen because 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) requires an unclassified report not later than one year after 18 December 2025, and clause (iii) requires that report to include a list of currently authorized technologies; 31 December 2026 allows thirteen days for the report to appear publicly after its statutory deadline. The probability sits slightly above even because the statutory requirement is explicit and unclassified, and slightly short of confident because the report may be delivered late, may be published only to the committees, or may describe technologies in category terms already in the rule's preamble, and because the systems list itself is stated by the FCC to be maintained on the Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal. Base rate for on-time delivery and public posting of a first statutory report of this class: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Resolution rule: Scores YES if, on or before 31 December 2026, any source in the resolution_source list makes publicly readable, without law-enforcement credentials or a Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal account, either (a) the enumerated technology categories on the Authorized Technologies List, or (b) one or more specific systems identified as being on the Authorized Systems List. A statement of the Departments' expectation about what the lists will contain, of the kind already in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, does NOT score YES; the published content must be presented as the list or as its current contents. A partial publication, for example the list of currently authorized technologies required at 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D)(iii), scores YES. If the report required by 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) presents a list of currently authorized technologies, it scores YES even where the categories it names are the same as those the Departments described as their expectation in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, because the report presents them as the list rather than as an expectation. Vendor announcements of listing are COMPANY-STATED and do NOT score YES. Absence of any such publication scores NO.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-008, forward item DEF-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0032", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "Checked on 31 December 2026: (1) the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) unclassified report to Congress, as published on congress.gov, govinfo.gov, justice.gov or fbi.gov; (2) fbi.gov counter-UAS pages; (3) dhs.gov counter-unmanned-aircraft-systems pages; (4) justice.gov Office of Legal Policy counter-UAS pages; (5) federalregister.gov, for any notice or final rule reproducing or incorporating either list; (6) fcc.gov, for any release reproducing either list.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Scores YES if, on or before 31 December 2026, any source in the resolution_source list makes publicly readable, without law-enforcement credentials or a Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal account, either (a) the enumerated technology categories on the Authorized Technologies List, or (b) one or more specific systems identified as being on the Authorized Systems List. A statement of the Departments' expectation about what the lists will contain, of the kind already in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, does NOT score YES; the published content must be presented as the list or as its current contents. A partial publication, for example the list of currently authorized technologies required at 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D)(iii), scores YES. If the report required by 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) presents a list of currently authorized technologies, it scores YES even where the categories it names are the same as those the Departments described as their expectation in the preamble at 91 FR 41466, because the report presents them as the list rather than as an expectation. Vendor announcements of listing are COMPANY-STATED and do NOT score YES. Absence of any such publication scores NO." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-lead-agency-rule", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0032" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-277", "brief": "the-lead-agency-rule", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is renewed, extended, or replaced by a categorical or standing authorisation covering the same class of operations, with effect on or before 31 January 2027.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2027-01-31", "p": 0.75, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-DEF-26-008; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0033", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The Commission granted DA 26-656 on its own motion rather than on application, which indicates institutional intent to keep the SLTT class lawful to transmit, and the interim final rule records that the Departments and the Commission will work to establish standing or categorical authorizations. Against that, the instrument is temporary by construction, no renewal notice had been located as of 9 September 2026, and a gap between lapse on about 29 December 2026 and a replacement is possible, which is why the resolution date allows 33 days past the lapse. Base rate for renewal of a Commission blanket special temporary authority granted on its own motion: UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable. Resolution rule: Scores YES if a Federal Communications Commission release dated on or before 31 January 2027 does any of: extends or renews the DA 26-656 special temporary authority; grants a new special temporary authority to the same class of SLTT agencies for the same class of counter-UAS operations; or adopts a categorical, standing, blanket or rule-based authorisation permitting those operations. A grant to a single named agency, or to a group of named agencies rather than to the class, does NOT score YES. A part 2 equipment authorisation or waiver to a manufacturer does NOT score YES. Scores NO if the authority lapses on or about 29 December 2026 with no such instrument in effect by 31 January 2027, and NO if no relevant release is located.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-008, forward item DEF-1-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0033", "window_as_stated": "2027-01-31", "resolution_source": "Checked on 31 January 2027: (1) FCC Electronic Document Management System and Daily Digest at fcc.gov for releases in GN Docket 26-74; (2) the FCC Electronic Comment Filing System docket 26-74 filing set; (3) federalregister.gov for any FCC rule or notice authorising SLTT counter-UAS emissions; (4) fcc.gov Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau and Office of Engineering and Technology release pages.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Scores YES if a Federal Communications Commission release dated on or before 31 January 2027 does any of: extends or renews the DA 26-656 special temporary authority; grants a new special temporary authority to the same class of SLTT agencies for the same class of counter-UAS operations; or adopts a categorical, standing, blanket or rule-based authorisation permitting those operations. A grant to a single named agency, or to a group of named agencies rather than to the class, does NOT score YES. A part 2 equipment authorisation or waiver to a manufacturer does NOT score YES. Scores NO if the authority lapses on or about 29 December 2026 with no such instrument in effect by 31 January 2027, and NO if no relevant release is located." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-lead-agency-rule", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0033" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-278", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": 0.4, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0034", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-09-16", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "line": "target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent" }, "notes": "Post-print judgment, reset on 11 September before lock. August final-demand PPI rose 0.4 percent and 5.4 percent over twelve months, with energy up 4.2 percent, while August core CPI rose 0.3 percent and the three-month annualised core rate slowed to 1.97 percent from 3.05 percent through July. The CPI outcome satisfies the direction of improvement in Waller's published condition and moves no change to 0.58; the producer-price level, strong August payrolls and Warsh's broader standard preserve a 0.40 probability of a 25 basis point increase. A 50 basis point increase remains 0.02. The three decision branches sum to one: 0.58 hold, 0.40 up 25 basis points, 0.02 up 50 basis points. This claim resolves FALSE on both the hold and the 50 basis point branch. The 9 September futures-implied 60.1 percent predates both releases and is retained as a dated comparator, not an anchor. Analyst's own judgment call; a Metron base rate for FOMC outcomes conditional on futures-implied probabilities is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, and the gap is routed to Module 12. Resolution rule: Read the FOMC statement published on 16 September 2026. Resolve TRUE if the statement announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is 4.00 percent (written by the Board as 3-3/4 to 4 percent). Resolve FALSE for any other upper bound, including 3.75 percent (an unchanged range) and 4.25 percent (an increase of 50 basis points). If no statement is published on 16 September 2026, resolve on the first FOMC statement published thereafter that concludes the meeting of 15 to 16 September 2026. Read 2026-09-16 by AEGIS (fomc_reader 0.1.0): AEGIS read the target range sentence in the FOMC statement. The upper bound printed is 4 percent, and the claim resolves true only on an upper bound of 4.00 percent.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0034", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement of record and the accompanying implementation note published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Read the FOMC statement published on 16 September 2026. Resolve TRUE if the statement announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is 4.00 percent (written by the Board as 3-3/4 to 4 percent). Resolve FALSE for any other upper bound, including 3.75 percent (an unchanged range) and 4.25 percent (an increase of 50 basis points). If no statement is published on 16 September 2026, resolve on the first FOMC statement published thereafter that concludes the meeting of 15 to 16 September 2026." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0034" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-279", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0035; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-09-16", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm", "line": "Table 1 memo, projected appropriate policy path, federal funds rate median, 2026 column: 4.1 percent" }, "notes": "The June 2026 median was 3.8 percent, up from 3.4 percent in March, with nine of eighteen participants above the current 3.625 percent midpoint and six at 4.125 percent or higher. Since June, inflation has stayed above target on the six-month PCE window, energy has re-escalated, payrolls have been strong and three voters have dissented for a hike, all of which push the distribution up. The point of 4.1 percent assumes an increase at this meeting plus one more penciled across the two remaining 2026 meetings. The lower bound is 3.8 percent and not 3.9, because the desk holds no change at 0.58 and an unchanged median is the live outcome on that branch, which is what the Hold and Split scenario's own signal to watch concedes. Mass above 4.4 percent is negligible, since 4.375 percent would require three increases across the three remaining meetings. Analyst's own judgment call; a Metron base rate for SEP median revisions is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, routed to Module 12. Resolution rule: Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2026, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation, rounding or recomputation from the dot chart is permitted: the number scored is the number the Board prints. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.8 to 4.4 percent and a FAIL otherwise. The point estimate of 4.1 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so it can only take a sparse set of values; near this level those are 3.6, 3.8, 3.9, 4.0, 4.1, 4.3 and 4.4 percent. Read 2026-09-16 by AEGIS (fomc_reader 0.1.0): AEGIS read the median printed for the federal funds rate in 2026 from the Summary of Economic Projections: 4.1 percent. The claim is scored on interval containment only and holds on the closed interval 3.8 to 4.4, so it holds. Calibration note, not scored: the point estimate was 4.1, a signed difference of +0.0.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0035", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026 projection materials, Table 1, row 'Federal funds rate', column '2026', median value, published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2026, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation, rounding or recomputation from the dot chart is permitted: the number scored is the number the Board prints. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.8 to 4.4 percent and a FAIL otherwise. The point estimate of 4.1 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so it can only take a sparse set of values; near this level those are 3.6, 3.8, 3.9, 4.0, 4.1, 4.3 and 4.4 percent." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 3.8, "central": 4.1, "hi": 4.4, "unit": "percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026" }, "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0035" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-280", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": 0.65, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0036", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-09-16", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "line": "by a 12 - 0 vote" }, "notes": "Published decomposition across the three post-print decision branches, so the arithmetic reproduces. Branch weights: no change 0.58, an increase of 25 basis points 0.40, an increase of 50 basis points 0.02. Conditional probabilities of two or more dissents: 0.88 on no change, because the three July dissenters have each publicly reaffirmed since and at least two of the three dissenting again is close to the base case; 0.32 on an increase of 25 basis points, where Bowman's look-through position is the clearest single dissent, a second is genuinely unclear and two voters are UNKNOWN; 0.60 on an increase of 50 basis points. That gives 0.58 x 0.88 plus 0.40 x 0.32 plus 0.02 x 0.60 = 0.6504, published as 0.65. The in-year 2026 sample is two of four meetings with two or more dissents, which is too small to serve as a base rate and is not used as one; a Metron base rate for dissent counts at FOMC meetings is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, routed to Module 12. Analyst's own judgment call. Resolution rule: Count the named individuals recorded in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 as voting against the monetary policy action. Resolve TRUE if that count is two or more, FALSE if it is one or zero. Direction of dissent is irrelevant: a dissent preferring a higher rate and a dissent preferring a lower rate each count as one. A recorded abstention, or a member absent and not voting, does not count as a dissent. A statement carrying no sentence naming anyone voting against gives a count of zero and resolves FALSE. Read 2026-09-16 by AEGIS (fomc_reader 0.1.0): AEGIS counted the individuals the statement names as voting against the monetary policy action: 0 (none named). The claim resolves true at two or more.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0036", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement of record published on 16 September 2026, the paragraph beginning 'Voting for the monetary policy action were' and the sentence naming those voting against", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Count the named individuals recorded in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 as voting against the monetary policy action. Resolve TRUE if that count is two or more, FALSE if it is one or zero. Direction of dissent is irrelevant: a dissent preferring a higher rate and a dissent preferring a lower rate each count as one. A recorded abstention, or a member absent and not voting, does not count as a dissent. A statement carrying no sentence naming anyone voting against gives a count of zero and resolves FALSE." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0036" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-281", "brief": "the-first-warsh-hike", "desk": "markets", "statement": "The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-09-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0037; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-09-16", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm", "line": "Table 1 memo, projected appropriate policy path, federal funds rate median, 2027 column: 4.1 percent" }, "notes": "The June 2026 median for 2027 was 3.6 percent, up from 3.1 percent in March, sitting at the arithmetic centre of a bimodal distribution with eight participants at 3.875 percent or above and eight at 3.375 percent or below. The point of 3.9 percent assumes the 2027 column moves up roughly in step with the 2026 column and preserves June's shape of a small implied easing from the 2026 level. The interval is capped at 4.0 percent rather than 4.1 so that the claim can lose in the direction the desk is arguing and not only in the direction it is not: a 2027 median of 4.1 percent, no easing at all across 2027, would beat this call. It also fails if the Committee leaves the median at 3.5 percent or below. Note the knife edge: in June the ninth and tenth 2027 submissions both sat at 3.625 percent, so a single participant moving one notch moves the printed value. This is the number the title of the brief asks about. Analyst's own judgment call; a Metron base rate for the persistence of SEP out-year medians is UNKNOWN, kernel unreachable, routed to Module 12. Resolution rule: Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2027, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation from the dot chart is permitted. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.6 to 4.0 percent and a FAIL otherwise; it FAILS on any printed value at or below 3.5 percent and on any printed value at or above 4.1 percent. The point estimate of 3.9 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so the interval is the four achievable values 3.6, 3.8, 3.9 and 4.0 percent, not a continuum. Read 2026-09-16 by AEGIS (fomc_reader 0.1.0): AEGIS read the median printed for the federal funds rate in 2027 from the Summary of Economic Projections: 4.1 percent. The claim is scored on interval containment only and holds on the closed interval 3.6 to 4.0, so it fails. Calibration note, not scored: the point estimate was 3.9, a signed difference of +0.2.", "source": { "location": "AIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C4; engine record AIG-FWD-0037", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-16", "resolution_source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026 projection materials, Table 1, row 'Federal funds rate', column '2027', median value, published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Read the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2027, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation from the dot chart is permitted. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.6 to 4.0 percent and a FAIL otherwise; it FAILS on any printed value at or below 3.5 percent and on any printed value at or above 4.1 percent. The point estimate of 3.9 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so the interval is the four achievable values 3.6, 3.8, 3.9 and 4.0 percent, not a continuum." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-first-warsh-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 3.6, "central": 3.9, "hi": 4.0, "unit": "percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027" }, "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0037" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-282", "brief": "sixty-votes-or-bust", "desk": "markets", "statement": "A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.55, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-RIB-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0038", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-02", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00234.htm", "line": "The cloture motion received 49 yeas, below the required 60. Proposed disposition: FALSE." }, "notes": "Leadership filed cloture and secured a scheduled vote, but the approved public source base contains no attributable vote commitments. The filing and schedule support a live path to the threshold; the absent whip count prevents higher confidence. Resolution rule: Resolve YES if an official Congressional Record roll call records at least 60 yeas on cloture for the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 on or before 30 September 2026. Resolve NO if every such vote by that date records fewer than 60 yeas or if no such vote occurs by that date. Window passed on 2026-10-01 with no public source recorded; the website shows it as Open from 2026-10-02. Resolved 2026-10-02 by Zacharias: FALSE, the cloture vote received 49 yeas.", "source": { "location": "AIG-RIB-26-001, forward item ECO2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0038", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-01", "resolution_source": "Congressional Record on GovInfo", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "Resolve YES if an official Congressional Record roll call records at least 60 yeas on cloture for the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 on or before 30 September 2026. Resolve NO if every such vote by that date records fewer than 60 yeas or if no such vote occurs by that date." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "sixty-votes-or-bust", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0038" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-283", "brief": "panamas-second-drought", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) or lower, or reduces total daily booking slots below 32.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2026-11-03", "p": 0.2, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-SCL-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0039", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Advisory A-33-2026 of 4 September 2026 postponed the 47.5 ft step until further notice, citing the current Gatun Lake level and the latest weather projections, which is direct evidence against a further reduction inside the next seven weeks and is the single most informative fact available. The window also sits inside the September to November rainy season that the ACP Administrator named on 8 September 2026 as the three critical months determining whether slots fall further, and the ACP has said it will give advance notice of changes, so a cut effective inside the window would have to be announced in the middle of the season that is meant to relieve it. The residual probability reflects the fourth consecutive month of deficit inflows and the ACP's demonstrated willingness to move draft and slot steps at two weeks notice. Resolution rule: On 3 November 2026 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ and reads every advisory issued between 10 September 2026 and 31 October 2026 inclusive. The claim resolves YES if at least one such advisory states an effective date on or before 31 October 2026 for either (a) a maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) TFW or less, or (b) a total of daily booking slots across the Panamax and Neopanamax locks of fewer than 32, counted as the sum of the per-lock daily booking slot figures the advisory itself states. It resolves NO otherwise. An advisory that only announces a future effective date after 31 October 2026 does not resolve it YES. An advisory that postpones, suspends or reverses a previously announced reduction does not resolve it YES. A reduction in auction slots, in reservation periods, in transit windows or in draft in the Panamax locks does not resolve it YES. If the register is unreachable on 3 November 2026, the reader retries daily to 10 November 2026 and, failing that, scores it from the ACP press room at https://pancanal.com/en/news/ on the same rule.", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-001, forward item SCL1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0039", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-03", "resolution_source": "Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping register, https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "On 3 November 2026 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ and reads every advisory issued between 10 September 2026 and 31 October 2026 inclusive. The claim resolves YES if at least one such advisory states an effective date on or before 31 October 2026 for either (a) a maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) TFW or less, or (b) a total of daily booking slots across the Panamax and Neopanamax locks of fewer than 32, counted as the sum of the per-lock daily booking slot figures the advisory itself states. It resolves NO otherwise. An advisory that only announces a future effective date after 31 October 2026 does not resolve it YES. An advisory that postpones, suspends or reverses a previously announced reduction does not resolve it YES. A reduction in auction slots, in reservation periods, in transit windows or in draft in the Panamax locks does not resolve it YES. If the register is unreachable on 3 November 2026, the reader retries daily to 10 November 2026 and, failing that, scores it from the ACP press room at https://pancanal.com/en/news/ on the same rule." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "panamas-second-drought", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0039" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-284", "brief": "panamas-second-drought", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.", "made_on": "2026-09-11", "resolves_by": "2027-02-16", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-SCL-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0040; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-11", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the claim that carries the brief's thesis, that the decision-relevant quarter is Q1 2027 rather than Q4 2026. The ACP's own position is that pronounced impacts of a strong El Nino appear more clearly in the subsequent year, its FY2027 budget of 1 September 2026 plans 10,750 deep-draft transits against 13,404 actual in FY2025, and the incoming Administrator said on 8 September 2026 that booking slots could fall to about 29 by February or March 2027 depending on September to November rainfall. The central value of 47.0 ft assumes the postponed 47.5 ft step is taken during the dry season and one further half-foot step follows, which is slower than the 2023 to 2024 descent to 44 ft because Gatun entered this dry season roughly 4.5 ft above its dated September 2023 reading and the water-saving basins and simultaneous lockages activated in December 2025 were not available in 2023; the low bound of 45.0 ft allows for a 2023 to 2024 style collapse and the high bound of 48.0 ft for no further step at all. Resolution rule: On 16 February 2027 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/, identifies the most recent advisory that sets or confirms a maximum authorised draft for the Neopanamax locks with an effective date on or before 15 February 2027, and records the figure in feet TFW that the advisory itself states. Where the advisory states metres only, the reader converts at 1 m equals 3.28084 ft and rounds to one decimal place. That figure is the outcome. If an advisory sets a draft that is superseded by a later advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the later figure governs. If the register carries no Neopanamax draft advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the outcome is the draft last set before 10 September 2026, that is 48.0 ft. The interval is scored as an 80 percent interval: it is hit if the recorded figure falls at or between 45.0 and 48.0 inclusive.", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-001, forward item SCL1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0040", "window_as_stated": "2027-02-16", "resolution_source": "Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping register, https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/", "extracted_on": "2026-09-11", "checkable": "On 16 February 2027 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/, identifies the most recent advisory that sets or confirms a maximum authorised draft for the Neopanamax locks with an effective date on or before 15 February 2027, and records the figure in feet TFW that the advisory itself states. Where the advisory states metres only, the reader converts at 1 m equals 3.28084 ft and rounds to one decimal place. That figure is the outcome. If an advisory sets a draft that is superseded by a later advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the later figure governs. If the register carries no Neopanamax draft advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the outcome is the draft last set before 10 September 2026, that is 48.0 ft. The interval is scored as an 80 percent interval: it is hit if the recorded figure falls at or between 45.0 and 48.0 inclusive." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "panamas-second-drought", "learning_role": "operational", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 45.0, "central": 47.0, "hi": 48.0, "unit": "feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft" }, "forward_item_id": "AIG-FWD-0040" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-285", "brief": "seventy-percent-and-counting", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU common auction held on 30 September 2026, or for the last EU common auction held before that date if none is held on it, will be EUR 85.00 per tonne of carbon dioxide, within an interval of EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 per tonne.", "made_on": "2026-09-14", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-SCL-26-002; immutable engine record BRIER-FWD-0041; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-14", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-10-02", "evidence": { "url": "https://public.eex-group.com/eex/eua-auction-report/emission-spot-primary-market-auction-report-2026-data.xlsx", "line": "The 29 September EU common auction cleared at EUR 84.87 per tonne" }, "notes": "The EEX 2026 auction report was re-read on 14 September 2026 and the anchor refreshed on it. The most recent EU common auction on that file is 14 September 2026 at EUR 86.44 per tonne, on 2,791,500 allowances at a cover ratio of 1.37, after EUR 85.16 on 10 September and EUR 84.40 on 8 September; the 2026 range across 104 EU common auctions to that date is EUR 62.19 (19 March) to EUR 91.32 (15 January), and the first surrender day of 30 September 2025 cleared at EUR 75.95. REFRESHED: 14 September 2026, anchor EUR 86.44 of 14 September 2026, replacing EUR 84.40 of 8 September 2026. The centre of EUR 85.00 and the interval of EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 are carried forward unchanged: the refreshed anchor sits inside the interval, 1.7% above the centre, which is well inside the dispersion this series shows over a three-week horizon, so the refresh does not move the forecast. Against the refreshed anchor the interval runs about 12% below and about 9% above, and that asymmetry is stated rather than corrected, because re-centring a claim already red-teamed and gated would be a new forecast rather than a refresh. The interval is set at roughly plus or minus 11% around the 8 September level, which on the dispersion observed in the 2026 series over a three-week horizon is about a nominal 80% interval, wide enough to contain that dispersion and narrow enough to be informative. A simple threshold at or above EUR 80 was already satisfied on 8 September 2026 and would have resolved on the day it was written, which is why a point and interval is the more informative form. The resolution series is the EEX primary auction rather than the ICE Endex Dec-26 settlement because the ICE market data page is login-gated and therefore not a nameable public series; the basis between the two is not measured for this brief and is a stated limitation. Resolution rule: Read the EEX emission spot primary market auction report for 2026 (the published xlsx, or the equivalent EEX auction results page). The file downloads without a login; this reading path was used on 9 September 2026 and read again on 14 September 2026. Take the row for the EU common auction, that is the auction conducted on behalf of the participating EU Member States, not the separate German or Polish national platform auctions, held on 30 September 2026. EEX holds EU common auctions on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays and 30 September 2026 is a Wednesday, so on the calendar as published no EU common auction falls on the resolution date and the resolving row is expected to be the auction of Tuesday 29 September 2026; in that case take the row for the last EU common auction held before 30 September 2026. The claim resolves on that row's clearing price in EUR per tonne of CO2. HIT if the clearing price falls within EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 inclusive; MISS if outside. The interval is a nominal 80% interval. The central value of EUR 85.00 is scored separately as absolute error in EUR per tonne. Two scorers reading the same file on the same date must obtain the same number; no interpolation, no averaging across auctions, and no substitution of an ICE Endex settlement, a secondary-market quote or an aggregator benchmark. If the EEX report and the EEX auction results page are both unreadable on the resolution date, the claim is scored on the same EEX report when it next becomes readable, and if neither is readable by 31 October 2026 the claim is recorded UNRESOLVED rather than scored against any substitute series. Source admission: EEX, EUR-Lex, climate.ec.europa.eu and the European Environment Agency were admitted by the principal as resolution sources on 14 September 2026, at Tier 1 for EUR-Lex, Tier 1 for climate.ec.europa.eu, Tier 1 for EEX and Tier 2 for the European Environment Agency, as recorded in source_audit.md. The resolution rule below names only admitted sources, per amendment 4 of the Operating Standard. Window passed on 2026-09-30 with no public source recorded; the website shows it as Open from 2026-10-02. Resolved 2026-10-02 by Zacharias: EEX clearing price was EUR 84.87", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-002, forward item SCL3-C1; engine record BRIER-FWD-0041", "window_as_stated": "2026-09-30", "resolution_source": "European Energy Exchange, EU allowance primary market auction results, and the EEX emission spot primary market auction report for 2026 (https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/environmental-markets/eua-primary-auction-spot-download)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-14", "checkable": "Read the EEX emission spot primary market auction report for 2026 (the published xlsx, or the equivalent EEX auction results page). The file downloads without a login; this reading path was used on 9 September 2026 and read again on 14 September 2026. Take the row for the EU common auction, that is the auction conducted on behalf of the participating EU Member States, not the separate German or Polish national platform auctions, held on 30 September 2026. EEX holds EU common auctions on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays and 30 September 2026 is a Wednesday, so on the calendar as published no EU common auction falls on the resolution date and the resolving row is expected to be the auction of Tuesday 29 September 2026; in that case take the row for the last EU common auction held before 30 September 2026. The claim resolves on that row's clearing price in EUR per tonne of CO2. HIT if the clearing price falls within EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 inclusive; MISS if outside. The interval is a nominal 80% interval. The central value of EUR 85.00 is scored separately as absolute error in EUR per tonne. Two scorers reading the same file on the same date must obtain the same number; no interpolation, no averaging across auctions, and no substitution of an ICE Endex settlement, a secondary-market quote or an aggregator benchmark. If the EEX report and the EEX auction results page are both unreadable on the resolution date, the claim is scored on the same EEX report when it next becomes readable, and if neither is readable by 31 October 2026 the claim is recorded UNRESOLVED rather than scored against any substitute series." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "seventy-percent-and-counting", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "BRIER-FWD-0041", "resolution_source": "European Energy Exchange, EU allowance primary market auction results, and the EEX emission spot primary market auction report for 2026 (https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/environmental-markets/eua-primary-auction-spot-download)", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 76.0, "central": 85.0, "hi": 94.0, "unit": "EUR per tonne CO2" } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-286", "brief": "seventy-percent-and-counting", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The next European Commission Carbon Market Report, or any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026, states that shipping companies surrendered allowances for less than 99% of the surrendering requirements for the 2025 compliance cycle.", "made_on": "2026-09-14", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.25, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-SCL-26-002; immutable engine record BRIER-FWD-0042", "locked_on": "2026-09-14", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The only precedent is the 2025 Carbon Market Report of 3 December 2025, which stated more than 99% of surrendering requirements met by the legal deadline for the 2024 cycle, measured on Union Registry figures at 1 October 2025. The threshold is set at that precedent. The probability is 0.25. Two considerations push toward shortfall: the attributed population more than doubled from 2,104 to 5,298 companies with effect from 1 January 2026, and the coefficient rose from 40% to 70% at an allowance price about 14% higher than on the first surrender day. The consideration that pushes the published share back above 99% is stronger, because the measure is tonnage-weighted, the tonnage sits with large, well-capitalised and already-compliant operators, and the companies added to the list are by construction the smaller tonnage; the single precedent is also stated as more than 99% rather than as a figure at the threshold, so it may sit well above it. The Challenger moved the figure from the Author's 0.30 to 0.25 on that reasoning and the manager has accepted 0.25; 0.25 is the number stated in this file and in the brief's Outlook section, and no other figure appears in either. The claim is deliberately posed on allowances due rather than on operators, because no named public source publishes an operator-count compliance measure on any date, which is this brief's Section 02 finding. Horizon: the permitted buckets are 30, 60 and 90 days; measured from the 25 September 2026 issue date the true window to 31 December 2026 is 97 days, so 90 is recorded as the nearest bucket and the resolution date governs. Resolution rule: HIT if a European Commission or European Environment Agency publication dated on or before 31 December 2026 states, for the 2025 compliance cycle (that is, verified 2025 emissions surrendered by the 30 September 2026 deadline at the 70% coefficient), a maritime surrender figure expressed as a share of surrendering requirements or of allowances due that is below 99%. MISS if such a publication states a figure of 99% or above, including the form used for the 2024 cycle, more than 99%. UNRESOLVED if no Commission or Agency publication dated on or before 31 December 2026 states any such figure. The measure is a share of allowances or of surrendering requirements, not a share, count or percentage of shipping companies; a statement about the number of non-compliant operators does not resolve this claim in either direction. Trade press, consultancies, industry associations and third-party aggregations of the EU Transaction Log do not resolve it; the publisher must be the Commission or the Agency. The reading path is the Carbon Market Report series index on climate.ec.europa.eu, which the cell used on 9 September 2026 to retrieve COM(2025) 735. If that index is unreadable on the resolution date, the claim is scored on the Official Journal or EUR-Lex COM-document record of the same report; if no Commission or Agency publication carrying such a figure can be read by 31 January 2027, the claim is recorded UNRESOLVED and is not scored against any non-Commission restatement. Source admission: EEX, EUR-Lex, climate.ec.europa.eu and the European Environment Agency were admitted by the principal as resolution sources on 14 September 2026, at Tier 1 for EUR-Lex, Tier 1 for climate.ec.europa.eu, Tier 1 for EEX and Tier 2 for the European Environment Agency, as recorded in source_audit.md. The resolution rule below names only admitted sources, per amendment 4 of the Operating Standard.", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-002, forward item SCL3-C2; engine record BRIER-FWD-0042", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "European Commission Carbon Market Report series (climate.ec.europa.eu) and any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-14", "checkable": "HIT if a European Commission or European Environment Agency publication dated on or before 31 December 2026 states, for the 2025 compliance cycle (that is, verified 2025 emissions surrendered by the 30 September 2026 deadline at the 70% coefficient), a maritime surrender figure expressed as a share of surrendering requirements or of allowances due that is below 99%. MISS if such a publication states a figure of 99% or above, including the form used for the 2024 cycle, more than 99%. UNRESOLVED if no Commission or Agency publication dated on or before 31 December 2026 states any such figure. The measure is a share of allowances or of surrendering requirements, not a share, count or percentage of shipping companies; a statement about the number of non-compliant operators does not resolve this claim in either direction. Trade press, consultancies, industry associations and third-party aggregations of the EU Transaction Log do not resolve it; the publisher must be the Commission or the Agency. The reading path is the Carbon Market Report series index on climate.ec.europa.eu, which the cell used on 9 September 2026 to retrieve COM(2025) 735. If that index is unreadable on the resolution date, the claim is scored on the Official Journal or EUR-Lex COM-document record of the same report; if no Commission or Agency publication carrying such a figure can be read by 31 January 2027, the claim is recorded UNRESOLVED and is not scored against any non-Commission restatement." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "seventy-percent-and-counting", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "BRIER-FWD-0042", "resolution_source": "European Commission Carbon Market Report series (climate.ec.europa.eu) and any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026", "kind": "probability", "range": null }, { "id": "CLM-2026-287", "brief": "700000-a-day", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China route, as published in the Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report dated 9 October 2026, will be $690,000 per day, within an interval of $320,000 to $1,020,000 per day.", "made_on": "2026-09-14", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked interval approved with AIG-SCL-26-003; immutable engine record BRIER-FWD-0043; outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-09-14", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-10-10", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/WeeklyRoundup/tanker/news/2026/tanker-report-week-41.html", "line": "TD3C (270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China) climbed 115 points to WS1,318.75, which gives a daily round-trip TCE of $1,412,594 for the standard Baltic VLCC" }, "notes": "The original framing of at or above $400,000 per day is a threshold the 4 September print of just under $704,000 already clears by 76 percent, which would score a hit under everything from a sharp retracement to a further doubling and therefore carries almost no information. A point and interval is scored on error rather than on a bar that is already cleared. The central value assumes the 9 October print is close to flat on 4 September: the eight-week run from $344,250 on 10 July to just under $704,000 on 4 September compounds at roughly 9 percent a week and would imply well over $1,000,000 if extended, while the June 2026 episode shows a 37.9 percent two-week fall is available on an announcement, so momentum and reversal risk are set against each other rather than extrapolated. The interval is deliberately wide and is set to span all three named scenarios rather than the baseline alone, which is why it is much wider than the baseline scenario's own signal of roughly fifteen percent around $704,000; the two are describing different things and the brief should say so. The publisher and route are named in the statement and the rule because the Baltic Exchange and The Signal Group published materially different TCEs on identical routes on 4 September 2026, and a claim that does not name its publisher is not resolvable in this market. The numbers are the analyst's own judgment; no base rate or model forecast was available. The red-team pass tested the central against two pieces of evidence the drafting pass did not have and did not move it: Alibra Shipping assessed the VLCC one-year period rate at $125,000 per day on 2 and 9 September 2026, which says the market will not underwrite the spot level for a year but says nothing about the next five weekly prints, and EIA's Brent spot series had Brent at $102.24 on 4 September, 26 percent below its 7 April 2026 high of $138.21, which is a divergence to watch rather than a directional signal for freight. Resolution rule: Resolve on the round-trip time charter equivalent figure the Baltic Exchange publishes for route TD3C, defined by the Baltic Exchange as 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China, in its weekly tanker report dated Friday 9 October 2026, and on no other publication. The scorer must use the Baltic Exchange's own assessment. Time charter equivalents published for TD3C, TD2 or any other route by The Signal Group, by Alibra Shipping, by any other broker, or by any reprinting outlet do not resolve this claim. Reading path. The reading path the cell has used is the Baltic Exchange free weekly roundup page named above. If that page is unreadable on the day, or serves no report content, resolve on a reprint that both attributes the figure to the Baltic Exchange and states the same report date; the reprints the cell has actually used are The Daily Cargo News (https://www.thedcn.com.au/news) and Cyprus Shipping News (https://cyprusshippingnews.com), and either resolves the claim on those two conditions. If the Baltic report of 9 October 2026 states the TD3C round-trip TCE as an approximation (for example just under or just over a stated figure), take the stated figure. If the Baltic publishes no report dated 9 October 2026, or publishes one carrying no TD3C round-trip TCE line, resolve on the next Baltic weekly tanker report after 9 October 2026 that carries one, and record the substitution. Score a HIT if the published figure falls within $320,000 to $1,020,000 per day inclusive; score a MISS if it falls outside. Record the absolute and percentage error of the published figure against the central value of $690,000 per day. Resolved 2026-10-10 by Zacharias: VLCC rates kept climbing all autumn (weeks 38 to 41: $1.21 million, $1.24 million, $1.22 million, $1.41 million), while the PMR centred on $690,000. Even the upper bound of a wide interval didn’t reach where the index already was. The question is whether the forecast tracked physical fixtures (reported around $530,000 to $603,000 in mid-September) while the claim was scored on the Baltic’s assessed index. If so, that’s the claim-measure mismatch the drafting brief now warns about: the claim has to test the measure the report argues.", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-003, forward item SCL4-C1; engine record BRIER-FWD-0043", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "Baltic Exchange, weekly tanker report (Friday-dated), free weekly roundup page, https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/WeeklyRoundup/tanker.html", "extracted_on": "2026-09-14", "checkable": "Resolve on the round-trip time charter equivalent figure the Baltic Exchange publishes for route TD3C, defined by the Baltic Exchange as 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China, in its weekly tanker report dated Friday 9 October 2026, and on no other publication. The scorer must use the Baltic Exchange's own assessment. Time charter equivalents published for TD3C, TD2 or any other route by The Signal Group, by Alibra Shipping, by any other broker, or by any reprinting outlet do not resolve this claim. Reading path. The reading path the cell has used is the Baltic Exchange free weekly roundup page named above. If that page is unreadable on the day, or serves no report content, resolve on a reprint that both attributes the figure to the Baltic Exchange and states the same report date; the reprints the cell has actually used are The Daily Cargo News (https://www.thedcn.com.au/news) and Cyprus Shipping News (https://cyprusshippingnews.com), and either resolves the claim on those two conditions. If the Baltic report of 9 October 2026 states the TD3C round-trip TCE as an approximation (for example just under or just over a stated figure), take the stated figure. If the Baltic publishes no report dated 9 October 2026, or publishes one carrying no TD3C round-trip TCE line, resolve on the next Baltic weekly tanker report after 9 October 2026 that carries one, and record the substitution. Score a HIT if the published figure falls within $320,000 to $1,020,000 per day inclusive; score a MISS if it falls outside. Record the absolute and percentage error of the published figure against the central value of $690,000 per day." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "700000-a-day", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "BRIER-FWD-0043", "resolution_source": "Baltic Exchange, weekly tanker report (Friday-dated), free weekly roundup page, https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/WeeklyRoundup/tanker.html", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 320000, "central": 690000, "hi": 1020000, "unit": "US dollars per day, round-trip time charter equivalent for the standard Baltic VLCC" } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-288", "brief": "700000-a-day", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "Conditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly announcing an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz on or before 15 November 2026, the first Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published on or after the fourteenth day following that announcement will be at least 25 percent below the last Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published before the announcement date.", "made_on": "2026-09-14", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "p": 0.85, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Approved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-SCL-26-003; immutable engine record BRIER-FWD-0044", "locked_on": "2026-09-14", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the claim the brief is actually about, so it is stated as the conditional rather than as a spread level that would resolve cleanly but would not test the asymmetry. The conditional form was chosen over a dated TD3C minus TD34 spread claim because a spread claim resolves on whatever the corridor does and says nothing about what a settlement would do to freight, which is the brief's thesis; the cost of the conditional form is a possible void, and Step 4 states exactly how a void is recorded so that two scorers reach the same result. The 25 percent threshold and the fourteen-day lag are set below and around what the June 2026 natural experiment already produced: TD3C fell 37.9 percent in two weekly prints, from about $461,000 per day on 19 June to about $286,500 on 3 July, on a memorandum that was never signed and that lifted daily Hormuz transits to a peak of 27 against a pre-war 95. EIA's Europe Brent spot series corroborates that window independently and bounds it: Brent fell 14.6 percent across the same two weeks, from $80.46 on 19 June to $68.68 on 3 July, and rose 11.4 percent to $76.50 by 8 July, so the announcement channel acted on both markets and freight carried roughly two and a half times the crude beta. A signed agreement acting on a base more than twice as high should clear a 25 percent threshold comfortably, which is why the conditional probability is set high at 0.85 rather than at a coin flip, and the period market supports that reading: Alibra Shipping assessed the VLCC one-year time charter at $125,000 per day on 2 and 9 September 2026, 17.8 percent of the spot round-trip TCE, which is the crude market's own statement that it does not expect the September level to persist. It is not set higher because the announcement could be partial, could be largely pre-priced by leaks in the days before T, or could land on a base that has already fallen, and because eight IRGC-linked tankers destroyed by US Central Command between 5 and 8 September 2026 are permanent fleet removals that put a floor under the rate that June did not have. Step 1 was rewritten after Gate 2: the original rule required an announcement by the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran without naming any admitted source by which it could be read, and no Iranian government channel appears on AEIG's source register. The substantive trigger is unchanged; only the reading path is now admitted. The claim is written to compose with CLM-2026-247, which carries the probability that an announcement occurs, rather than to restate it. The probability is the analyst's own judgment; no base rate for freight repricing on chokepoint settlements was available. Resolution rule: Step 1, the trigger. The trigger is met on the first calendar date on or before 15 November 2026 on which both conditions below hold. Condition A, the United States leg: an official statement attributable to the Government of the United States (the President, the White House, the Department of State, or US Central Command) announcing that an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz has been reached, read at whitehouse.gov, state.gov or centcom.mil. Condition B, the Iranian leg: an official statement attributable to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran (head of state or government, the foreign ministry, or an equivalent official channel) announcing that the same agreement has been reached, evidenced by direct reporting of that statement in Reuters or the Associated Press. No Iranian state channel is on AEIG's source register, so the Iranian leg resolves on allowlisted wire reporting of the official statement and not on the Iranian channel itself; reporting that describes an unannounced or unconfirmed agreement does not satisfy Condition B. Announcements by one government alone, by intermediaries, or by non-governmental parties do not meet the trigger. Call that date T. Step 2, the two prints. Take P0, the TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent in the last Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report published strictly before T. Take P1, the TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent in the first Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report published on or after T plus 14 days. Both figures must be the Baltic Exchange's own assessment for route TD3C, defined by the Baltic Exchange as 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China; figures from The Signal Group, Alibra Shipping or any other publisher do not resolve this claim. The reading path and the unreadability fallback are those stated in SCL4-C1. Step 3, the test. Score a HIT if P1 is less than or equal to 0.75 multiplied by P0. Score a MISS if P1 is greater than 0.75 multiplied by P0. Step 4, no trigger. If no announcement meeting Step 1 occurs on or before 15 November 2026, the claim resolves VOID: it is recorded in the register as void with the reason 'condition not met, no qualifying announcement by 2026-11-15' and is counted neither as a hit nor as a miss, and no Brier contribution is recorded. Step 5, edge cases. If the Baltic publishes no TD3C round-trip TCE line in the report identified at Step 2, use the next report after it that does, and record the substitution. If T falls on a Friday, the report published that same day counts as P1 only if its assessment date is on or after T plus 14 days; otherwise it is treated as published before T for the purpose of P0. The stated probability of 0.85 is a conditional probability given that the Step 1 trigger is met, not an unconditional probability of the compound event.", "source": { "location": "AIG-SCL-26-003, forward item SCL4-C2; engine record BRIER-FWD-0044", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-15", "resolution_source": "Baltic Exchange, weekly tanker report (Friday-dated), https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/WeeklyRoundup/tanker.html, read against the United States government channels https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/, https://www.state.gov/policy-issues/sanctions/ and https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/, and against Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) and the Associated Press (https://apnews.com) reporting official statements of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran", "extracted_on": "2026-09-14", "checkable": "Step 1, the trigger. The trigger is met on the first calendar date on or before 15 November 2026 on which both conditions below hold. Condition A, the United States leg: an official statement attributable to the Government of the United States (the President, the White House, the Department of State, or US Central Command) announcing that an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz has been reached, read at whitehouse.gov, state.gov or centcom.mil. Condition B, the Iranian leg: an official statement attributable to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran (head of state or government, the foreign ministry, or an equivalent official channel) announcing that the same agreement has been reached, evidenced by direct reporting of that statement in Reuters or the Associated Press. No Iranian state channel is on AEIG's source register, so the Iranian leg resolves on allowlisted wire reporting of the official statement and not on the Iranian channel itself; reporting that describes an unannounced or unconfirmed agreement does not satisfy Condition B. Announcements by one government alone, by intermediaries, or by non-governmental parties do not meet the trigger. Call that date T. Step 2, the two prints. Take P0, the TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent in the last Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report published strictly before T. Take P1, the TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent in the first Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report published on or after T plus 14 days. Both figures must be the Baltic Exchange's own assessment for route TD3C, defined by the Baltic Exchange as 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China; figures from The Signal Group, Alibra Shipping or any other publisher do not resolve this claim. The reading path and the unreadability fallback are those stated in SCL4-C1. Step 3, the test. Score a HIT if P1 is less than or equal to 0.75 multiplied by P0. Score a MISS if P1 is greater than 0.75 multiplied by P0. Step 4, no trigger. If no announcement meeting Step 1 occurs on or before 15 November 2026, the claim resolves VOID: it is recorded in the register as void with the reason 'condition not met, no qualifying announcement by 2026-11-15' and is counted neither as a hit nor as a miss, and no Brier contribution is recorded. Step 5, edge cases. If the Baltic publishes no TD3C round-trip TCE line in the report identified at Step 2, use the next report after it that does, and record the substitution. If T falls on a Friday, the report published that same day counts as P1 only if its assessment date is on or after T plus 14 days; otherwise it is treated as published before T for the purpose of P0. The stated probability of 0.85 is a conditional probability given that the Step 1 trigger is met, not an unconditional probability of the compound event." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "700000-a-day", "learning_role": "operational", "forward_item_id": "BRIER-FWD-0044", "resolution_source": "Baltic Exchange, weekly tanker report (Friday-dated), https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/WeeklyRoundup/tanker.html, read against the United States government channels https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/, https://www.state.gov/policy-issues/sanctions/ and https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/, and against Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) and the Associated Press (https://apnews.com) reporting official statements of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran", "kind": "probability", "range": null }, { "id": "CLM-2026-289", "statement": "EIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at or above 13.90 mb/d.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-11-25", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.75, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "EIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at or above 13.90 mb/d.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\"", "checkable": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Yes if the weekly series for US field production of crude oil, as first published for the week ending 2026-11-20, shows 13,900 thousand barrels per day or more; otherwise No." }, "brief": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-290", "statement": "The EIA daily Europe Brent spot price FOB for 2026-12-18 is at or above 100 USD per barrel.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-12-23", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Energy Information Administration", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.45, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "The EIA daily Europe Brent spot price FOB for 2026-12-18 is at or above 100 USD per barrel.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\"", "checkable": "Energy Information Administration: Yes if the daily Europe Brent Spot Price FOB series for 2026-12-18, or the nearest prior published trading day, is 100.00 USD per barrel or more; otherwise No." }, "brief": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-291", "statement": "The October 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US LNG gross exports for 2027 at or above 18.6 Bcf/d.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-10-06", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "resolved", "resolution_source": "Energy Information Administration", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule. Resolved 2026-10-06 by Zacharias: The rule's named source (EIA, Tier 1) published the October 2026 STEO today, 2026-10-06, the date the rule reads. The published figure meets the threshold exactly and the claim resolves true.", "p": 0.6, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "published on 6 October 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 29 September 2026, narrowed from 31 December 2027, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 242.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\"", "checkable": "Energy Information Administration: Yes if the annual 2027 US LNG gross exports forecast in the Short-Term Energy Outlook released on or about 2026-10-06, or the first one released after that date, is 18.6 Bcf/d or more; otherwise No." }, "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-10-06", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/", "line": "U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day): 11.9 | 15.1 | 17.6 | 18.6 [2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027]" }, "brief": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-292", "statement": "EIA reports Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 2026-10-30 above the five-year average.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-11-05", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Energy Information Administration", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.8, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the week ending 2026-10-30", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 29 September 2026, firm ledger entry 239.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\"", "checkable": "Energy Information Administration: Yes if the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on or about 2026-11-05 shows total Lower 48 working gas greater than the five-year average stated in the same release; otherwise No." }, "brief": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-293", "statement": "EIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11 below 280.0 million barrels.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-12-16", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.45, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "EIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11 below 280.0 million barrels.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Rise of North American Energy Dominance\"", "checkable": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Yes if weekly SPR crude oil stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11, as first published, are less than 280,000 thousand barrels; otherwise No." }, "brief": "rise-of-north-american-energy-dominance" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-294", "statement": "Violent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation takes place on at least two consecutive nights in a single town or city in the United Kingdom, Ireland or an EU Member State between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-12-27", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "elevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.4, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "Violent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation takes place on at least two consecutive nights in a single town or city in the United Kingdom, Ireland or an EU Member State between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports, in the window, violent disorder in one town or city on at least two consecutive nights that Reuters or the police describe as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation; NO otherwise." }, "brief": "elevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-295", "statement": "Fewer than 25,000 people are recorded arriving in the UK by small boat in the calendar year 2026 up to and including 26 December 2026.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-12-27", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "elevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "UK government open data", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.55, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "from 1 January 2026 until 27 Dec 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 29 September 2026, narrowed from 31 December 2026, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 244.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\"", "checkable": "UK government open data: YES if the sum of daily small boat arrivals from 1 January to 26 December 2026 in the UK government's published small boat data, read on the resolution date, is below 25,000; NO otherwise." }, "brief": "elevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-296", "statement": "A completed attack that national authorities describe as Islamist or jihadist terrorism kills at least one person in an EU Member State or the UK between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-09-29", "resolves_by": "2026-12-27", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "elevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-09-29; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\" by Zacharias on 2026-09-29, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.5, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-09-29", "kind": "probability", "source": { "window_as_stated": "A completed attack that national authorities describe as Islamist or jihadist terrorism kills at least one person in an EU Member State or the UK between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports such an attack in the window, with a prosecutor, interior ministry or police force describing it as Islamist or jihadist terrorism; NO otherwise." }, "brief": "elevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-297", "statement": "The FAO Food Price Index for October 2026, as first published, is at or above 136.0 points.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-02", "resolves_by": "2026-11-13", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "FAO statistical database", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-02; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-02, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.55, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-02", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of October 2026, as first published on or before 13 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\"", "checkable": "FAO statistical database: Yes if the headline FAO Food Price Index value for October 2026 in the first FAO release that publishes it, on or before 13 November 2026, is at or above 136.0 points; No otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-298", "statement": "The FAO Sugar Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 106.4 points.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-02", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "FAO statistical database", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-02; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-02, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.75, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-02", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of November 2026, as first published on or before 11 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\"", "checkable": "FAO statistical database: Yes if the FAO Sugar Price Index value for November 2026 in the first FAO release that publishes it, on or before 11 December 2026, is at or above 106.4 points; No otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-299", "statement": "The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 198.6 points.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-02", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "FAO statistical database", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-02; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-02, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.55, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-02", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of November 2026, as first published on or before 11 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\"", "checkable": "FAO statistical database: Yes if the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index value for November 2026 in the first FAO release that publishes it, on or before 11 December 2026, is at or above 198.6 points; No otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-300", "statement": "The FAO Food Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 140.1 points.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-02", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "FAO statistical database", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-02; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-02, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.2, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-02", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of November 2026, as first published on or before 11 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?\"", "checkable": "FAO statistical database: Yes if the headline FAO Food Price Index value for November 2026 in the first FAO release that publishes it, on or before 11 December 2026, is at or above 140.1 points; No otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-301", "statement": "Democrats win at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives in the 3 November 2026 election.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-06", "resolves_by": "2026-12-04", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Associated Press", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-06; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-06, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.7, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-06", "kind": "probability", "brief": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 4 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\"", "checkable": "Associated Press: YES if, as of 2026-12-04, the Associated Press has declared Democratic winners in at least 218 of the 435 House races of the 3 November 2026 election; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-302", "statement": "Democrats and independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 Senate seats after the 2026 elections.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-06", "resolves_by": "2027-01-03", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Associated Press", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-06; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-06, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.45, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-06", "kind": "probability", "brief": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 3 January 2027", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\"", "checkable": "Associated Press: YES if, as of 2027-01-03, Associated Press race calls give Democrats plus independents caucusing with Democrats at least 51 of the 100 Senate seats for the Congress that begins in January 2027; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-303", "statement": "The 2026 election produces a Democratic House majority and a Republican Senate majority.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-06", "resolves_by": "2027-01-03", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Associated Press", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-06; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-06, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.3, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-06", "kind": "probability", "brief": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 3 January 2027", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\"", "checkable": "Associated Press: YES if, as of 2027-01-03, Associated Press race calls give Democrats at least 218 House seats and give Republicans at least 50 Senate seats for the Congress that begins in January 2027; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-304", "statement": "The 2026 election produces a Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-06", "resolves_by": "2027-01-03", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Associated Press", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-06; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-06, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.4, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-06", "kind": "probability", "brief": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 3 January 2027", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\"", "checkable": "Associated Press: YES if, as of 2027-01-03, Associated Press race calls give Democrats at least 218 House seats and give Democrats plus independents caucusing with Democrats at least 51 Senate seats for the Congress that begins in January 2027; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-305", "statement": "A lapse in appropriations shuts down any part of the federal government between 12 December and 31 December 2026.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-06", "resolves_by": "2027-01-03", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Congress.gov", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-06; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-06, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.2, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-06", "kind": "probability", "brief": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "source": { "window_as_stated": "from 12 December 2026 to 31 December 2026 inclusive", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\"", "checkable": "Congress.gov: YES if no continuing resolution or full-year appropriations act covering the agencies funded by the current stopgap is enacted before its expiry, so that a lapse in appropriations begins on any day from 12 December 2026 to 31 December 2026 inclusive, as shown by the enactment dates on Congress.gov; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-306", "statement": "The number of House seats won by Democrats in the 3 November 2026 election.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-06", "resolves_by": "2026-12-04", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Associated Press", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-06; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-06, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-06", "kind": "range", "range": { "lo": 214, "central": 228, "hi": 242, "unit": "seats", "level": 80 }, "brief": "midterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 4 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk\"", "checkable": "Associated Press: the number of House races of the 3 November 2026 election in which the Associated Press has declared a Democratic winner as of 2026-12-04." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-307", "statement": "The US CPI-U all items index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or above 3.4 percent.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-07", "resolves_by": "2026-10-14", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-07; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-07, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.6, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-07", "kind": "probability", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of September 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the BLS CPI news release for September 2026 reports the all items index 12-month change, not seasonally adjusted, at or above 3.4 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-308", "statement": "The US CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-07", "resolves_by": "2026-10-14", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-07; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-07, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.85, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-07", "kind": "probability", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of September 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the BLS CPI news release for September 2026 reports the all items less food and energy index 12-month change, not seasonally adjusted, at or below 2.6 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-309", "statement": "The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its meeting ending 28 October 2026.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-07", "resolves_by": "2026-10-29", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-07; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-07, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.35, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-07", "kind": "probability", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "source": { "window_as_stated": "at the FOMC meeting ending 28 October 2026, read on 29 October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\"", "checkable": "Federal Reserve Economic Data: YES if the upper limit of the federal funds target range (series DFEDTARU) for 2026-10-29 is above 4.00 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-310", "statement": "The upper limit of the federal funds target range is at or above 4.25 percent after the FOMC meeting ending 9 December 2026.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-07", "resolves_by": "2026-12-10", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-07; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-07, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.75, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-07", "kind": "probability", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 10 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\"", "checkable": "Federal Reserve Economic Data: YES if the upper limit of the federal funds target range (series DFEDTARU) for 2026-12-10 is at or above 4.25 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-311", "statement": "US real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 grows at an annual rate of at least 1.0 percent in the BEA advance estimate.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-07", "resolves_by": "2026-10-29", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-07; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-07, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.8, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-07", "kind": "probability", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the third quarter of 2026, in the advance estimate published up to and including 29 October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Economic Analysis: YES if the advance estimate of real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 shows growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate at or above 1.0 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-312", "statement": "The US unemployment rate for November 2026 is at or above 4.5 percent.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-07", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-07; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-07, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.12, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-07", "kind": "probability", "brief": "hiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at or above 4.5 percent, as first published, whatever the method; if that release has not appeared by 2026-12-11, the claim resolves on its first publication." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-313", "statement": "The maximum authorised draft in the Panama Canal Neopanamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 is 49.0 feet or more.", "desk": "supply-chain", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-12-28", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "choke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Hellenic Shipping News", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.55, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "choke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama", "source": { "window_as_stated": "on 28 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\"", "checkable": "Hellenic Shipping News: YES if the latest Panama Canal Authority draft advisory reported on or before 28 December 2026 sets a Neopanamax maximum authorised draft of 49.0 feet, 14.94 metres, or more that is in effect on that date; NO if the draft in effect on that date is below 49.0 feet." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-314", "statement": "India announces a new ban, export duty or minimum export price on non-basmati rice exports between 9 October 2026 and 28 December 2026.", "desk": "supply-chain", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-12-28", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "choke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.15, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "choke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama", "source": { "window_as_stated": "from 9 October 2026 up to and including 28 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports that the Government of India has announced a new prohibition, export duty or minimum export price applying to non-basmati rice exports in the window; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-315", "statement": "Total daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 are 32 or more.", "desk": "supply-chain", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-12-28", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "choke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Container News", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.65, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "choke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama", "source": { "window_as_stated": "on 28 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits\"", "checkable": "Container News: YES if the latest Panama Canal Authority slot allocation reported on or before 28 December 2026 provides 32 or more total daily transit slots in effect on that date; NO if it provides fewer." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-322", "statement": "The BLS producer price index for switchgear, switchboard and industrial controls equipment (series WPU1175, not seasonally adjusted) for September 2026, as first published, is 430.247 or higher.", "desk": "infrastructure", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-10-30", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "grid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.72, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "grid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the reference month of September 2026, as first published up to and including 30 October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the first published September 2026 value of series WPU1175 is 430.247 or higher, as first published, whatever the method, NO if it is lower, and void if BLS has published no September 2026 value by 2026-10-30." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-323", "statement": "GE Vernova reports gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements of 120 GW or more as at 30 September 2026.", "desk": "infrastructure", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-10-30", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "grid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "SEC EDGAR", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.78, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "grid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator", "source": { "window_as_stated": "as at 30 September 2026, reported up to and including 30 October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\"", "checkable": "SEC EDGAR: YES if the third quarter 2026 results release that GE Vernova files on SEC EDGAR states a combined gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation figure of 120 GW or more, NO if the stated figure is lower, and void if no such release is filed by 2026-10-30." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-324", "statement": "The BLS producer price index for transformers and power regulators (series WPU1174, not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as first published.", "desk": "infrastructure", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-11-13", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "grid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "range": { "lo": 432.0, "central": 438.0, "hi": 452.0, "unit": "index points", "level": 80 }, "brief": "grid-gear-bottleneck-transformer-switchgear-and-generator", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the reference month of October 2026, as first published up to and including 13 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: the outcome is the first published October 2026 value of series WPU1174, as first published, whatever the method, scored against the point and the interval, and void if BLS has published no October 2026 value by 2026-11-13." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-325", "statement": "Israel holds its Knesset election on 27 October 2026.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Haaretz", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.93, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "source": { "window_as_stated": "on 27 October 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 8 October 2026, firm ledger entry 505.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\"", "checkable": "Haaretz: YES if Haaretz reports that nationwide voting in the general election for the 26th Knesset took place on 27 October 2026; NO if the vote was postponed to any later date." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-326", "statement": "The Netanyahu bloc, meaning Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit and Amcha Yisrael with any list running jointly with them, wins at least 61 of the 120 seats in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Haaretz", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.2, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "source": { "window_as_stated": "7 Nov 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 8 October 2026, firm ledger entry 513.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\"", "checkable": "Haaretz: YES if the seat allocation reported by Haaretz once the count of all votes is complete gives those lists together at least 61 seats, as first reported, whatever later corrections; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-327", "statement": "The number of seats won by the Netanyahu bloc, as defined in Claim C-2, in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Haaretz", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "range": { "lo": 47, "central": 53, "hi": 60, "unit": "seats", "level": 80 }, "brief": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 7 November 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 8 October 2026, firm ledger entry 507.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\"", "checkable": "Haaretz: The combined number of Knesset seats won by the lists that make up the Netanyahu bloc as defined in Claim C-2, in the seat allocation Haaretz reports for the 27 October 2026 election once the count of all votes, including soldiers’ and other double-envelope votes, is complete. The first such report counts; later corrections do not. The number reported settles the claim: inside 47 to 60 is a hit, outside is a miss. A list that falls below the electoral threshold counts as 0 seats." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-328", "statement": "Yashar wins more seats than Likud in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Haaretz", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.55, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "source": { "window_as_stated": "7 Nov 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 8 October 2026, firm ledger entry 514.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\"", "checkable": "Haaretz: YES if, in the seat allocation reported by Haaretz once the count of all votes is complete, Yashar's seats exceed Likud's, as first reported; NO if Likud's seats equal or exceed Yashar's." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-329", "statement": "A new Israeli government wins a Knesset confidence vote on or before 6 January 2027.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-08", "resolves_by": "2027-01-06", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Haaretz", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-08; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-08, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.35, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-08", "kind": "probability", "brief": "israel-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election", "source": { "window_as_stated": "on or before 6 January 2027", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 8 October 2026, firm ledger entry 506.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election\"", "checkable": "Haaretz: YES if Haaretz reports that a government formed after the 27 October 2026 election won a Knesset confidence vote on or before 6 January 2027; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-330", "statement": "Flavio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-06", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "brazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.72, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "kind": "probability", "brief": "brazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 6 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports, by 6 November 2026, that the Superior Electoral Court has declared Flavio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 runoff; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-331", "statement": "Flavio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-06", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "brazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "range": { "lo": 49.5, "central": 52.0, "hi": 54.5, "unit": "percent", "level": 80 }, "brief": "brazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real", "source": { "window_as_stated": "the runoff of 25 October 2026, as reported up to and including 6 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\"", "checkable": "Reuters: the share of valid votes won by Flavio Bolsonaro in the runoff, in percent of valid votes, as reported by Reuters from the Superior Electoral Court's count with all polling stations counted, to one decimal place." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-332", "statement": "The Brazilian real trades stronger than 5.10 reais per US dollar on 30 October 2026, the first full trading week after the runoff.", "desk": "political-risk", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-06", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "brazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.65, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "kind": "probability", "brief": "brazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real", "source": { "window_as_stated": "the trading day of 30 October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real\"", "checkable": "Federal Reserve Economic Data: YES if the DEXBZUS series value for 2026-10-30 is below 5.10 reais per US dollar, as first published, whatever the method; if no value is published for that date, the last value published for a date on or before it counts." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-333", "statement": "At least one Atlantic hurricane other than Isaias forms between 9 October 2026 and 30 November 2026.", "desk": "infrastructure", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Associated Press", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.35, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "source": { "window_as_stated": "from 9 October 2026 up to and including 30 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\"", "checkable": "Associated Press: YES if Associated Press reporting published by 1 December 2026 states that an Atlantic tropical cyclone other than Isaias reached hurricane strength between 9 October and 30 November 2026, using the operational count as first reported, whatever later reanalysis says; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-334", "statement": "The total number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, counted at the season's end on 30 November 2026.", "desk": "infrastructure", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Associated Press", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "range": { "lo": 9, "central": 10, "hi": 12, "unit": "named storms", "level": 80 }, "brief": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "source": { "window_as_stated": "on 30 November 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 9 October 2026, narrowed from 31 December 2026, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 595.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\"", "checkable": "Associated Press: the number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic season stated in Associated Press end-of-season reporting published by 1 December 2026, operational count as first reported, whatever later reanalysis says." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-335", "statement": "The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic discussion of 12 November 2026 keeps the El Nino Advisory in force and reports a weekly Nino-3.4 anomaly of +2.0 °C or more.", "desk": "infrastructure", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-12", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.8, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "source": { "window_as_stated": "12 Nov 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 659.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\"", "checkable": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml: YES if the discussion issued on or about 12 November 2026 both keeps the El Nino Advisory and states a latest weekly Nino-3.4 anomaly of +2.0 °C or more, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-336", "statement": "US Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23 October 2026.", "desk": "infrastructure", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-23", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.6, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 23 October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if the latest Marine Minerals Administration shut-in figure reported by Reuters on or before 23 October 2026 is below 5% of US Gulf of Mexico oil production, or if Reuters reports that the agency has ended its Isaias shut-in reporting by that date; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-337", "statement": "The composite of Drewry's World Container Index in the assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be about USD 3,800 per 40ft container.", "desk": "supply-chain", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-27", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "box-rates-into-lunar-new-year-the-container-market-s-last", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Drewry", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "range": { "lo": 3100, "central": 3800, "hi": 4600, "unit": "USD", "level": 80 }, "brief": "box-rates-into-lunar-new-year-the-container-market-s-last", "source": { "window_as_stated": "27 Nov 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 661.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\"", "checkable": "Drewry: the figure is the composite of Drewry's World Container Index in the assessment dated 26 November 2026, in USD per 40ft container, as first published, whatever the method; if no assessment carries that date, the first one published after it counts." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-338", "statement": "The Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 6,500 per 40ft container.", "desk": "supply-chain", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-27", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "box-rates-into-lunar-new-year-the-container-market-s-last", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Drewry", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.6, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "kind": "probability", "brief": "box-rates-into-lunar-new-year-the-container-market-s-last", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the assessment dated 26 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\"", "checkable": "Drewry: YES if the Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 is below USD 6,500 per 40ft container, as first published, whatever the method; if no assessment carries that date, the first one published after it counts; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-339", "statement": "The Shanghai to Rotterdam rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 3,337 per 40ft container, its level on 8 October 2026.", "desk": "supply-chain", "made_on": "2026-10-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-27", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "box-rates-into-lunar-new-year-the-container-market-s-last", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Drewry", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-09; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-09, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.6, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-09", "kind": "probability", "brief": "box-rates-into-lunar-new-year-the-container-market-s-last", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the assessment dated 26 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter\"", "checkable": "Drewry: YES if the Shanghai to Rotterdam rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 is below USD 3,337 per 40ft container, as first published, whatever the method; if no assessment carries that date, the first one published after it counts; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-340", "statement": "The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 53.0.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-02", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.7, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the October 2026 reading, published on or before 2 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports a headline ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2026 of 53.0 or higher, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-341", "statement": "The ISM prices index for October 2026 is at or above 70.0.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-02", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.75, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the October 2026 reading, published on or before 2 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports an ISM manufacturing prices index for October 2026 of 70.0 or higher, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-342", "statement": "Fed manufacturing output for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-16", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board data & statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.6, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "source": { "window_as_stated": "16 Oct 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, narrowed from 31 August 2027, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 677.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\"", "checkable": "Federal Reserve Board data & statistics: YES if the industrial production release of 16 October 2026 shows a monthly change in manufacturing output for September 2026 of 0.0 percent or more, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-343", "statement": "Total Fed industrial production for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-16", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board data & statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.55, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "source": { "window_as_stated": "16 Oct 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, narrowed from 31 August 2027, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 678.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\"", "checkable": "Federal Reserve Board data & statistics: YES if the industrial production release of 16 October 2026 shows a monthly change in total industrial production for September 2026 of 0.0 percent or more, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-344", "statement": "The monthly change in US manufacturing employment for October 2026.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-06", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "range": { "lo": -15, "central": 10, "hi": 35, "unit": "thousand jobs", "level": 80 }, "brief": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the October 2026 reading, published on or before 6 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: the over-the-month change in manufacturing employment for October 2026, in thousands, as first published in the Employment Situation of 6 November 2026, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-345", "statement": "The ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.85, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "the-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the November 2026 reading, published on or before 1 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports a headline ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 of 50.0 or higher, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-348", "statement": "The CPI-U all items index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.6, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 11 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the CPI-U all items index 12-month change for November 2026, not seasonally adjusted, in the BLS CPI news release, is at or above 3.5 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-349", "statement": "The CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.7, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 11 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for November 2026, not seasonally adjusted, in the BLS CPI news release, is at or below 2.6 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-350", "statement": "Average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees rise 3.1 percent or less over the 12 months to October 2026.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.8, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "source": { "window_as_stated": "7 Nov 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 11 October 2026, narrowed from 10 October 2027, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 736.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for October 2026, in the Employment Situation news release, is at or below 3.1 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-351", "statement": "Real average hourly earnings of all employees fall over the 12 months to November 2026.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.8, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "source": { "window_as_stated": "11 Dec 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 11 October 2026, narrowed from 10 October 2027, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 737.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the 12-month change in real average hourly earnings of all employees for November 2026, seasonally adjusted, in the BLS Real Earnings news release, is below zero, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-352", "statement": "The Employment Cost Index wages and salaries for civilian workers rise 3.3 percent or less over the 12 months to September 2026.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked after the approval of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, on the Claims tab, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.75, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "source": { "window_as_stated": "31 Oct 2026", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 11 October 2026, narrowed from 10 October 2027, the day its words read as running to, firm ledger entry 735.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the 12-month percent change in wages and salaries for civilian workers, not seasonally adjusted, in the Employment Cost Index news release for September 2026, is at or below 3.3 percent, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-353", "statement": "In November 2026 the CPI-U all items 12-month change exceeds the CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change by at least 0.8 percentage point.", "desk": "markets", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-11", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.65, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "us-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 11 December 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"US Prices and Wages After the First Hike\"", "checkable": "Bureau of Labor Statistics: YES if, in the BLS CPI news release for November 2026, the all items index 12-month change, not seasonally adjusted, minus the all items less food and energy index 12-month change, not seasonally adjusted, is at or above 0.8 percentage point, both as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-354", "statement": "China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "China National Bureau of Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.38, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\"", "checkable": "China National Bureau of Statistics: YES if the official manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is 50.0 or higher, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-355", "statement": "China's official new export orders sub-index for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "China National Bureau of Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.35, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\"", "checkable": "China National Bureau of Statistics: YES if the new export orders index of the official manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is 50.0 or higher, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-356", "statement": "China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as first published.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "China National Bureau of Statistics", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "range": { "lo": 49.0, "central": 49.6, "hi": 50.3, "unit": "index points", "level": 80 }, "brief": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "source": { "window_as_stated": "for the month of October 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\"", "checkable": "China National Bureau of Statistics: the value is the headline official manufacturing PMI for October 2026, in index points, as first published, whatever the method." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-357", "statement": "China's Ministry of Commerce or General Administration of Customs publishes, on or before 10 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 10 November 2026 the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.", "desk": "manufacturing", "made_on": "2026-10-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-10; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-10, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.75, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-10", "kind": "probability", "brief": "china-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table", "source": { "window_as_stated": "up to and including 10 November 2026", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports, by 10 November 2026, that the Ministry of Commerce or the General Administration of Customs has published such an announcement; NO otherwise." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-369", "statement": "The Office of Foreign Assets Control designates at least one additional vessel under Iran-related sanctions authorities between 2026-10-11 and 2026-11-30.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-10-11", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "OFAC sanctions programs", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-11; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-11, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.8, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-11", "kind": "probability", "brief": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "source": { "window_as_stated": "between 2026-10-11 and 2026-11-30", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 695.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\"", "checkable": "OFAC sanctions programs: YES if an OFAC recent action or Treasury press release dated from 2026-10-11 to 2026-11-30 inclusive adds at least one vessel to the SDN List under an Iran-related program or executive order; a vessel added under Executive Order 13224 or another counterterrorism authority also counts when the OFAC action or Treasury press release describes it as part of an Iranian oil, petroleum or shipping network, or of oil shipping by the IRGC or an Iran-backed group such as the Houthis; designations by the State Department alone do not count." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-370", "statement": "The governments of the United States and Iran both publicly confirm a signed agreement that provides for lifting or suspending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-10-11", "resolves_by": "2027-01-04", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-11; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-11, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.15, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-11", "kind": "probability", "brief": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "source": { "window_as_stated": "between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 696.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports by 2027-01-04 that both governments confirmed such a signed agreement within the window; a framework announced by only one side, a mediator's statement or an unsigned understanding does not count." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-371", "statement": "The IAEA Board of Governors adopts a new resolution on Iran at any session held between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-10-11", "resolves_by": "2026-12-02", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-11; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-11, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.45, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-11", "kind": "probability", "brief": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "source": { "window_as_stated": "between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 697.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports that the board adopted a resolution concerning Iran, by vote or by consensus, at a session held within the window; a statement by the chair, a joint statement by member states or a report by the Director General does not count." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-372", "statement": "US Central Command announces at least one US strike on a target on Iranian land territory carried out between 2026-11-04 and 2026-12-31.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-10-11", "resolves_by": "2027-01-04", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "CENTCOM operational press releases", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-11; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-11, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.4, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-11", "kind": "probability", "brief": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "source": { "window_as_stated": "between 2026-11-04 and 2026-12-31", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 698.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\"", "checkable": "CENTCOM operational press releases: YES if a Central Command release published by 2027-01-04 states that US forces struck a target on Iranian land territory on a date within the window; strikes only on vessels, aircraft or targets outside Iranian land territory do not count." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-373", "statement": "The cumulative number of merchant vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-10-11", "resolves_by": "2026-12-02", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "CENTCOM operational press releases", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-11; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-11, under its approved resolution rule.", "kind": "range", "p": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-10-11", "range": { "lo": 150, "central": 180, "hi": 225, "unit": "vessels", "level": 80 }, "brief": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "source": { "window_as_stated": "on or before 2026-12-01", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 699.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\"", "checkable": "CENTCOM operational press releases: the value is the latest cumulative redirected-vessel figure in a Central Command release published on or before 2026-12-01; if no such figure is published between 2026-11-01 and 2026-12-01, the claim is void." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-374", "statement": "The USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker places the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the US Central Command area of responsibility in an edition published from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-10-11", "resolves_by": "2026-11-09", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "USNI News", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-11; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-11, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.5, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-11", "kind": "probability", "brief": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "source": { "window_as_stated": "from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 700.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\"", "checkable": "USNI News: YES if any edition of the tracker published from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09 inclusive shows the carrier in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden or another part of the Central Command area; a position reported only elsewhere in the Indian Ocean does not count." } }, { "id": "CLM-2026-375", "statement": "IAEA inspectors carry out an inspection, confirmed by the agency, at any facility at the Fordow, Natanz or Isfahan nuclear sites, the three sites struck in June 2025, on a date between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31.", "desk": "defense", "made_on": "2026-10-11", "resolves_by": "2027-01-04", "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "learning_role": "operational", "status": "locked", "resolution_source": "Reuters", "notes": "Proposed in the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\". On the record, not locked and not public, since Zacharias approved its resolution rule on 2026-10-11; it locks only when a Principal locks the claims. Locked at the approval of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\" by Zacharias on 2026-10-11, under its approved resolution rule.", "p": 0.1, "probability_source": "the author's probability in the approved PMR", "locked_on": "2026-10-11", "kind": "probability", "brief": "iran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers", "source": { "window_as_stated": "between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31", "window_note": "Window stated by Zacharias on 10 October 2026, firm ledger entry 701.", "location": "the Outlook of the PMR \"Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers\"", "checkable": "Reuters: YES if Reuters reports by 2027-01-04 that the IAEA confirmed its inspectors carried out an inspection at any facility at the Fordow, Natanz or Isfahan sites on a date within the window, whether or not that particular building was itself struck; a visit to an unaffected site elsewhere such as Bushehr, an assessment from satellite imagery or an announced agreement on access without a confirmed inspection does not count." } } ], "corrections": [ { "id": "COR-2026-001", "object_id": "CLM-2026-245", "object_type": "claim", "what_was_wrong": "The claim's locked statement names 2026-09-17 as the date the September 2026 FOMC meeting concluded. The same date appears in the claim's settlement line (source.checkable), which reads \"federalreserve.gov FOMC statement of record (implementation note), 2026-09-17.\", and in the claim's notes, which repeat that settlement line. The meeting ran 15 to 16 September 2026 and the Federal Reserve released its statement on 16 September 2026, so the date printed in the claim's text is wrong by one day.", "what_changed": "Nothing in claim CLM-2026-245 was edited; its locked statement, probability, resolution and resolved_on are unchanged. This correction record is published alongside the claim to state the accurate date: the meeting concluded 2026-09-16, not 2026-09-17.", "why": "CLM-2026-245's own notes, recorded at resolution, already flagged the discrepancy between the date in the claim's text and the Federal Reserve's own calendar. The claim's probability judgment and its resolution do not depend on the printed date; they depend on the target range standing at the meeting's actual conclusion, which was read correctly and resolved false on 2026-09-16. The date error is in the claim's prose only, and the claim's locked fields cannot be edited to fix it (claims schema rule 3), so a correction record is the mechanism for saying so publicly.", "date": "2026-09-24", "approved_by": "Zacharias", "public": true, "notes": "We are correcting a date in one of our public forecasts. Claim CLM-2026-245 said the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting ended on 17 September 2026. The meeting ran on 15 and 16 September, and the decision was announced on 16 September. The claim asked whether the target range would be below 3.5 to 3.75 percent after that meeting. The Federal Reserve raised it to 3.75 to 4 percent, so the claim did not come true. We had put its chance at 25 percent, so our call was right to be low. The forecast stays resolved and scored exactly as recorded." }, { "id": "COR-2026-002", "object_id": "CLM-2026-246", "object_type": "claim", "what_was_wrong": "Claim CLM-2026-246 (the Strait of Hormuz open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01) was published on 2026-10-02 as resolved TRUE. Its resolution was entered as TRUE by mistake in record change RTP-0606 at 18:32 UTC on 2026-10-02, although the same record's evidence (US Maritime Administration advisory 2026-011: continuing attacks, protected transit, materially depressed traffic) and its resolution note (transit remained materially restricted) both say FALSE. The website's publish of 2026-10-02 carried that TRUE.", "what_changed": "The record was put right at 18:48 UTC on 2026-10-02 (RTP-0610): CLM-2026-246 is resolved FALSE, resolved on 2026-10-02. Its statement, its locked probability (15 percent), its evidence and its resolution rule are unchanged. On the next publish the website shows it as FALSE: its claim page, the Scorecard, the Forward Benchmark report's claims table, the Log and the claim data files; this correction is published with it.", "why": "A data entry error at resolution: the outcome field was set to TRUE while the evidence and the resolution note recorded at the same time say FALSE. Our forecast was 15 percent that the strait would be open, so FALSE is the outcome the forecast leaned toward; the error had made it look like a miss. Under the record rules a changed public outcome is published with a correction.", "date": "2026-10-05", "approved_by": "Zacharias", "public": true, "notes": "We are correcting one of our public forecasts. Claim CLM-2026-246 asked whether the Strait of Hormuz would be open to unrestricted commercial transit on 1 October 2026; we gave it 15 percent. When we resolved it on 2 October the outcome was entered as TRUE by mistake, and our website showed it as TRUE. The evidence we recorded at the time, continuing attacks and materially restricted transit, shows it was FALSE, and the record was corrected the same evening. Our scoring on the website follows the record, and the public score stays hidden until 30 claims count toward it." } ] }