{ "schema": "aeig-claims@2", "generated": "2026-09-10", "scoring": "Brier score over resolved BRIER-native probability claims only; legacy tracks and voids are excluded from the headline score and reported separately.", "summary": { "n": 0, "brier": null, "last_resolved_on": null, "locked_total": 51, "by_status": { "locked": 47, "resolved": 3, "open": 1 }, "by_desk": { "defense": { "locked": 14, "open": 1, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "infrastructure": { "locked": 5, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "manufacturing": { "locked": 11, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "markets": { "locked": 6, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "political-risk": { "locked": 6, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null }, "supply-chain": { "locked": 5, "open": 0, "resolved": 0, "void": 0, "brier": null } }, "bins": [ { "lo": 0.0, "hi": 0.1, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.1, "hi": 0.2, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.2, "hi": 0.3, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.3, "hi": 0.4, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.4, "hi": 0.5, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.5, "hi": 0.6, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.7, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.8, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.8, "hi": 0.9, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null }, { "lo": 0.9, "hi": 1.0, "n": 0, "mean_p": null, "hit_rate": null } ], "as_of": "2026-09-10", "score_scope": "brier-native resolved probability claims only", "tracks": { "brier-native": { "n": 0, "brier": null }, "legacy-prospective": { "n": 0, "brier": null }, "legacy-retrospective": { "n": 3, "brier": 0.2892 } }, "record_classes": { "legacy-prospective": 33, "legacy-retrospective": 4, "brier-native": 14 }, "claim_families": 19 }, "claims": [ { "id": "CLM-2026-004", "brief": "cat-models-002", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. The two-to-three-year stabilization clause of the same sentence is entered as its own claim. Resolves by the Baseline conditions the brief lists: no single industry-loss event of 60 billion dollars or more, controlled carrier exits, NFIP bridged.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path (baseline); two-to-three-year outcome (stabilization)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the twelve-month clause. The two-to-three-year clause (stabilization: multi-year NFIP reauthorization, expanded CA/FL backstops, FHFA GSE climate capital rules) would resolve 2028-05-26 to 2029-05-26.", "checkable": "Twelve-month check: absence of a $60B+ single-event industry loss, continued CA/FL carrier exits, NFIP bridge reauthorization, further property-cat softening (Aon/Howden/Gallagher Re renewals reports)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "cat-models-002", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-013", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2031-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, HIGH. Resolves against FEMA flood-map guidance and datum labels through the 2025 to 2031 window the brief names.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 8 (printed p.7), Section 03 Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "estimated five years post NAPGD2022 release; rationale cites 'the 2025 to 2031 window'", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the end of the 2025 to 2031 window named in the rationale.", "checkable": "FEMA flood-map update guidance and DFIRM datum labels; NGS / FEMA joint advisories on datum conversion", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-015", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 04 assessment, MODERATE, two consecutive sentences quoted so the referent is on the page. Resolves true if datum specification with conversion provisions is standard in parametric coastal-flood wordings by end-2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 9 (printed p.8), Section 04 Assessment (MODERATE)", "window_as_stated": "by 2027", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'this' = datum specification with formal conversion provisions in parametric policy language (preceding sentence). 'by 2027' ambiguous; end-2027 used.", "checkable": "Parametric policy forms and industry guidance (WTW, PwC, NAIC) showing datum-specification and conversion clauses as standard", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-022", "brief": "ground-004", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. Resolves by the Baseline conditions: NGS rollout completed by end-2026, no major landfall producing datum-related claims disputes, no FEMA or FHFA reference-frame guidance.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim sentence from the HIGH assessment block.", "checkable": "NGS rollout completion by end-2026; absence of a major landfall in a high-subsidence jurisdiction with datum-related claims disputes; no FEMA/FHFA reference-frame guidance", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "ground-004", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-024", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief. The licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users all remain in place.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2026-11-30", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-4, MODERATE. The brief names the suspensions' expiry as roughly 27 November 2026; the claim resolves true if the licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion and the military-end-user prohibition are still in force at that date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.3, KJ-4 (landing page lists it as KJ-3)", "window_as_stated": "unstated", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers '8, 15' trimmed. Section 06 names the expiry as roughly 27 November 2026 but the judgment itself states no window.", "checkable": "MOFCOM announcements and trade-press reporting on whether the one-year suspensions lapse, are re-tightened, or are converted into durable rollback (suspension expiry cited elsewhere in the brief as roughly 27 November 2026).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-030", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05 assessment, MODERATE. A carried IEA projection the brief endorses at its own confidence.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 05 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "into the mid-2030s", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation marker '1' trimmed. This restates an IEA projection rather than an AEIG-originated forecast; the enclosing assessment block carries MODERATE confidence. 'Mid-2030s' resolved to 2035-12-31 as a convention.", "checkable": "IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook refining-share series through 2035.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-031", "brief": "minerals-001", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05 assessment, MODERATE. Window is the section's stated 6 to 12 months, outer bound.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 05 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "6 to 12 Months (scenario horizon, Section 05 heading)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Window taken from the section heading 'Three Scenarios, 6 to 12 Months'; outer bound used.", "checkable": "IEA/CSIS refining and magnet-share data: China share of rare-earth processing remains a large majority through mid-2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "minerals-001", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-040", "brief": "uninsurable-003", "desk": "infrastructure", "statement": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-05-26", "resolves_by": "2027-05-26", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, HIGH. Resolves against cat-bond issuance and outstanding-market data and the absence of a governance-review event through May 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 11 (printed p.10), Section 06 Outlook Assessment (HIGH)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path (baseline); two-to-three-year destination (stabilization)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "resolves_by_guess uses the twelve-month clause; the two-to-three-year clause resolves 2028-05-26 to 2029-05-26.", "checkable": "Artemis cat-bond issuance and outstanding-market data; parametric premium growth reporting; sovereign-pool joint platform announcements", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "uninsurable-003", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-053", "brief": "hormuz-002", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.", "made_on": "2026-06-01", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Two quarters from the 1 June 2026 issue date. Resolves against published hull war-risk additional premium levels and the JWC Listed Areas status on 1 December 2026 compared with January 2026.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 13 (printed 12), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "a horizon shorter than two quarters", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Two quarters from the 1 June 2026 issue date. Same block adds: 'Even under Stabilization, the JWC designation, the LMA war-pricing precedent, and the PGSA institutional residue persist; under Deterioration they compound.'", "checkable": "Hull war-risk premium quotes (Lloyd's List, Howden Re, Platts) and JWC Listed Areas status through 1 December 2026 compared with the January 2026 baseline.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "hormuz-002", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-063", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action. Each regime is statutorily entrenched in a distinct legal system; the political consensus underwriting each spans more than one electoral cycle.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, MODERATE. Resolves true if MOFCOM licensing, the EU CRMA, the US BIS rules and the Indonesian ore-export bans are all still in force on 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers '14, 25, 13, 28' trimmed. KJ-7 appears in the PDF but not on the landing page's four-judgment summary.", "checkable": "Whether MOFCOM licensing, EU CRMA, US BIS FDPR/Entity List, and Indonesian ore-export bans all remain in force through June 2027 (MOFCOM, EUR-Lex, Federal Register, MoEMR).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-064", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with current EU dependency shares on China.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-3, MODERATE. Resolves true if the EU has not met its 40 percent processing benchmark and 65 percent single-source cap by end-2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-3", "window_as_stated": "by 2030 (benchmark date)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Lead-in 'The EU Critical Raw Materials Act is statutorily ambitious and operationally lagging.' and citation markers '25, 13, 33' trimmed. Phrased as a present trajectory judgment; the forward implication is that the 2030 benchmarks will be missed.", "checkable": "European Commission CRMA monitoring reports on EU processing share and single-country dependency versus the 40 percent and 65 percent benchmarks.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-066", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, MODERATE, on the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. Resolves true if the Commission opens a mid-term review or proposes an amendment before 1 January 2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.10, Section 03 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "before 2028", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Refers to the EU CRMA (subject of the enclosing assessment). 'More likely than not' is a verbal band (>0.5), not a stated percentage, so stated_probability left null.", "checkable": "European Commission communication initiating a CRMA mid-term review or a legislative amendment proposal before 1 January 2028.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-068", "brief": "mineral-export-controls", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month horizon.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 05, MODERATE. Resolves true if no downstreaming mandate is withdrawn in response to WTO action by 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.13, Section 05 body (section Assessment is Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Body-text sentence; the section's MODERATE assessment restates 'WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent' without the window, so the MODERATE tag is attributed.", "checkable": "WTO dispute records (DS592 status, Appellate Body function) and whether Indonesia or an imitator withdraws a downstreaming mandate in response to WTO action.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "mineral-export-controls", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-078", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a close second. Each carries a multi-year qualified-supplier path no supplemental appropriation can shortcut inside 24 months.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2028-06-03", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-2, HIGH. Resolves false if a second qualified nitrocellulose source or a third qualified tactical solid-rocket-motor supplier is delivering at scale before June 2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-2", "window_as_stated": "inside 24 months", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 9, 7, 10 dropped. 24 months from the 3 June 2026 issue date.", "checkable": "Army / JPEO Armaments and Ammunition announcements of a second qualified North American nitrocellulose source, or a third qualified tactical SRM supplier delivering at scale, before June 2028.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-079", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2030-03-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-3, HIGH. The SM-6 clause of the same judgment is kept on file separately because SM-6 inventory levels are not public. Resolves false if FY2027-lot Tomahawk deliveries are publicly recorded before March 2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-3; repeated in Section 05 Assessment (HIGH) on PDF page 11", "window_as_stated": "March 2030 (Tomahawk); early 2029 (SM-6)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 8, 6 dropped. Tomahawk delivery date is the outer bound used; a first delivery before March 2030 would falsify.", "checkable": "Navy FY2027 budget justification books and Raytheon / NAVSEA delivery announcements for FY2027-lot Tomahawks; SM-6 inventory levels are not public, so the SM-6 half is only indirectly checkable via CSIS estimates.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-081", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year. Today's appropriations do not fix today's magazine.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, HIGH. Resolves against delivery data in budget justification books and contractor disclosures for the 2024 and 2025 multiyear and large-lot awards.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 4 (printed 3), Key Judgments, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "2026 to 2028", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 6, 14, 8 dropped. Leading sentence 'Multi-year and large-lot procurement are the right policy mechanisms but carry a built-in lag' trimmed.", "checkable": "Delivery data in DoD budget justification books and contractor disclosures for the August 2025 JASSM/LRASM large-lot, AMRAAM, and PAC-3 MSE multiyear awards.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-083", "brief": "munitions-bottleneck", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most visible public signal of the underlying NC and energetics pathology.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": false, "resolved_on": "2026-07-14", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2026-07-14/army-artillery-shell-shortfall-22262070.html", "line": "A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings." }, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, HIGH. Mid-2026 read as 30 June 2026. Carries the brief's own caveat, barring a feedstock disruption. The shortfall the report names is projectile metal-part production and a failed contractor plant, not a feedstock disruption, so the brief's caveat does not apply.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 9 (printed 8), Section 03 Walk-Through, Assessment block (HIGH CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "the mid-2026 revised timeline", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'Mid-2026' read as 30 June 2026; a July 2026 reading would also be defensible. Carries the caveat 'barring a feedstock disruption'. The Thesis lists a formal DoD 100,000/month declaration as a falsification condition.", "checkable": "US Army / JPEO A&A statements of the all-US-facility 155mm monthly production rate; Defense News, Defense One, National Defense (NDIA) reporting.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "munitions-bottleneck", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-104", "brief": "resource-nationalism", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows. None imply it disappears.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. The scoreable element is that no Wave 3 settlement is disclosed at or near full filed claim value within the 12-month horizon.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.14, Section 07 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "12 Months (Section 07 heading)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "'The discount' refers to the discount to filed claim value that firms internalise; the scoreable element is 'None imply it disappears'.", "checkable": "Whether any Wave 3 settlement over the window is disclosed at or near full filed claim value (company filings, trade press).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "resource-nationalism", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-130", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "The attribution gap is durable. Across five major incident clusters in four years, no Western investigation has produced a finalized public state-actor attribution, and the institutional and legal frameworks that would close the gap have not changed.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-1, HIGH. The window is the brief's own thesis line for the same judgment: the gap is durable across at least a 12-month horizon. Resolves false if any Western investigation issues a finalized public state-actor attribution by 3 June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-1", "window_as_stated": "unstated in KJ-1; the Thesis on the same page states 'The gap is durable across at least a 12-month horizon'", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 9, 10, 11, 2 dropped. The 12-month window is taken from the Thesis sentence for the same judgment, not from KJ-1 itself; treat as stated by the brief but flagged.", "checkable": "Any finalized public state-actor attribution issued by a Western investigation (German Federal Prosecutor on Nord Stream, Finnish NBI on Eagle S / Balticconnector, Estonian or Swedish authorities) by 3 June 2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-133", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-7, MODERATE. The pattern is the Estlink-2 response described in the same judgment: board the vessel, prosecute the owner, recover damages, treat the sponsoring-state question separately.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 4 (printed 3), Key Judgments, KJ-7", "window_as_stated": "over the next 12 months", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 11, 21, 14 dropped. 'This pattern' refers to the Estlink-2 / Eagle S response described in the first sentence of KJ-7: board the vessel, prosecute the owner, recover damages, treat the sponsoring-state question separately.", "checkable": "Western responses to subsea incidents through June 2027: vessel boardings and owner prosecutions (Finnish NBI, other coastal states) versus any finalized state-actor attribution.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-137", "brief": "subsea-vulnerability", "desk": "supply-chain", "statement": "Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not change on a 12-month horizon.", "made_on": "2026-06-03", "resolves_by": "2027-06-03", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against published cable-ship fleet counts and chokepoint bandwidth shares in mid-2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 16 (printed 15), Section 07 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "a 12-month horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "12 months from the 3 June 2026 issue date.", "checkable": "SubTel Forum and TeleGeography fleet counts (60-75 cable-capable vessels, roughly 10 firms) and chokepoint bandwidth shares (Egypt ~17%, Luzon ~30%) as of mid-2027.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "subsea-vulnerability", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-148", "brief": "venezuela-after-maduro", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.", "made_on": "2026-06-16", "resolves_by": "2026-12-13", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. 180 days from the 16 June 2026 issue date. Resolves by the Baseline conditions the brief itself lists: the February licences in force, Rodriguez acting with US recognition, no competitive election scheduled, production near 1.0 to 1.1 million barrels a day, no ICJ judgment.", "source": { "location": "PDF page 12 (printed 11), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)", "window_as_stated": "90 to 180 day", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "180 days from the 16 June 2026 issue date. 'Most probable' is a comparative ranking of scenarios, not a numeric probability, so stated_probability is null.", "checkable": "Whether the Baseline conditions on PDF page 11 held through mid-December 2026: February OFAC licenses in force, Rodriguez acting president with US recognition, no competitive election date, production 1.0-1.1 mb/d, no ICJ judgment.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "venezuela-after-maduro", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-157", "brief": "counter-uas", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2026-06-30", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "open", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-5, MODERATE. The forward element is that the implementing rules due around June 2026 run late. Resolves true if the rules had not published by 30 June 2026. Held open as contested on 8 September 2026: the Justice and Homeland Security departments' interim final rule took effect on 1 July 2026 and published in the Federal Register on 6 July 2026, after the June window but inside the statute's 180-day deadline, so whether the rulebook was late turns on which clock the reader uses. The founders rule on it; until then it adds nothing to the score.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-5", "window_as_stated": "implementing rules due around June 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 24, 25 removed. Forward element is the rule due-date and the judgment that the rulebook is late; the statutory description is present-tense. The website page renumbers this as KJ-3.", "checkable": "Federal Register / DHS-DOJ publication of SAFER SKIES implementing rules and certification program; whether they published by end-June 2026", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "counter-uas", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-166", "brief": "counter-uas", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves by the status of the SAFER SKIES rules, the count of certified agencies, and the absence of a casualty or major-outage drone incident on US soil by June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim including PDF hyphenation artifact 'lower- probability'. This is the analyst's ranking of scenarios (Baseline most probable), not a construction-confidence tag, so scenario flag is false. No numeric probability.", "checkable": "By June 2027: status of SAFER SKIES final rules (slipped/interim vs final), count of certified state/local agencies, and whether a weaponized-drone incident with casualties or major outage occurred on US soil", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "counter-uas", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-178", "brief": "integrated-risk", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Window is the section's stated twelve months. Resolves against convergence prevalence and board oversight surveys through June 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "Three Scenarios, Twelve Months (section header)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim. Window taken from the Section 06 header 'Three Scenarios, Twelve Months'; this assessment sentence itself does not repeat 'twelve-month'. Analyst ranking, not construction confidence.", "checkable": "By June 2027: convergence prevalence still near ~24 percent, S&P 500 audit-committee cyber oversight still ~79 percent, no high-profile seam incident with named individual accountability", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "integrated-risk", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-187", "brief": "principal-protection", "desk": "defense", "statement": "broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "line": "A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight." }, "notes": "Section 03, under KJ-5, MODERATE. Resolves against the California Privacy Protection Agency's record of the broker compliance start date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.9 (footer 8), Section 03 body (covered by KJ-5)", "window_as_stated": "from August 1, 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 24, 25 removed; preceding clause about enrollment counts trimmed. Body text; MODERATE is the tag on KJ-5 and the Section 03 Assessment, which cover California's deletion platform. Largely a statement of statutory schedule rather than an analytic forecast.", "checkable": "California Privacy Protection Agency DROP notices confirming the August 1, 2026 broker-compliance start and 45-day cycle", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "principal-protection", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-191", "brief": "principal-protection", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.", "made_on": "2026-06-19", "resolves_by": "2027-06-19", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. A line-break hyphen in the PDF was joined. Resolves against the 2027 proxy-season disclosure share and convergence prevalence surveys.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.14 (footer 13), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim including PDF hyphenation artifact 'twelve- month'. Analyst's scenario ranking, not a construction-confidence tag.", "checkable": "By June 2027: Equilar 2027 proxy-season disclosure share rising; ASIS or similar convergence prevalence still near one quarter; no publicly attributed data-source-to-attack chain", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "principal-protection", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-200", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the structural gap persisting on that measure regardless of how the mining picture evolves.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2035-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-6, MODERATE. Resolves against published non-Chinese refining share for 2035.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-6 (landing page lists it as KJ-4)", "window_as_stated": "2035", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Lead-in 'For an operator or investor, mine-offtake diversification is the wrong primary metric for rare-earth exposure.' and citation markers '1,2,17,18' trimmed.", "checkable": "S&P Global, IEA, McKinsey refining-share data for 2035: non-Chinese share still a small minority.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-202", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2029-07-08", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 03 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the reasons the flagship projects disclose for any delay through July 2029.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.7, Section 03 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "the next three years", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "None.", "checkable": "Whether flagship project delays through 2029 are attributed to construction/qualification rather than financing in company disclosures.", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-205", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional capital is announced in that window.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2028-12-31", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 04 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the non-Chinese share of rare-earth refining and magnet output at end-2028.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.8, Section 04 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "2026 to 2028 horizon", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "None.", "checkable": "Non-Chinese share of rare-earth refining and magnet production at end-2028 (S&P Global, IEA).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-208", "brief": "rare-earth-midstream", "desk": "manufacturing", "statement": "Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the buyer's position, and none closes the gap outright.", "made_on": "2026-07-08", "resolves_by": "2030-12-31", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 06 assessment, HIGH. Resolves true if China still holds the majority of rare-earth refining and magnet output at end-2030.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.11, Section 06 Assessment (High Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "2026-to-2030 window", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "PDF wording quoted; markdown source has a longer variant of the same sentence.", "checkable": "China share of rare-earth refining and magnet output through 2030 remains the majority (S&P Global, IEA, USGS).", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "rare-earth-midstream", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-213", "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.", "made_on": "2026-07-14", "resolves_by": "2026-08-01", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "resolved", "resolution": true, "resolved_on": "2026-08-20", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.freshfields.com/en/our-thinking/blogs/a-fresh-take/drop-is-live-what-data-brokers-need-to-know-as-calprivacy-ramps-up-oversight-102nqhf", "line": "A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026." }, "notes": "KJ-4, HIGH. The present-tense description of registry gaps in the same judgment is trimmed. Resolves against the California Privacy Protection Agency's record of the enforcement date.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4 (footer 3), KJ-4", "window_as_stated": "August 1, 2026", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Citation markers 2, 3, 4 removed. Website page renumbers this as KJ-3. The enforceability date is the forward element; the registry limits are present-tense.", "checkable": "CPPA confirmation that DROP broker-compliance obligations took effect August 1, 2026; state broker-registry counts (EFF/PRC analysis)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-retrospective", "claim_family": "principal-digital-exposure", "learning_role": "audit-only" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-220", "brief": "principal-digital-exposure", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving the footprint decisive.", "made_on": "2026-07-14", "resolves_by": "2027-07-14", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against DROP compliance data, the absence of a public data-source attribution for an attack, and the absence of a multi-state or federal deletion standard by July 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12 (footer 11), Section 06 Outlook Assessment", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month path", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Verbatim from PDF (draft markdown wording differs slightly). Analyst ranking, not construction confidence.", "checkable": "By July 2027: CPPA DROP compliance/enforcement data showing partial deletion; no prosecution publicly naming a data source as targeting basis; no multi-state or federal deletion standard enacted", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "principal-digital-exposure", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-227", "brief": "capture-field-read", "desk": "political-risk", "statement": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.", "made_on": "2026-07-16", "resolves_by": "2027-07-16", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Section 06 assessment, MODERATE. Resolves against the Federal Register status of the FAR overhaul rules and FY2026 competition reporting by July 2027.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.12, Section 06 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "twelve-month", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "This is the section assessment, not a scenario construction confidence. Resolution requires mapping observed outcomes to the Baseline/Acceleration definitions (contract volume near $750B, FAR overhaul final rules issued, one-offer and retention patterns hold).", "checkable": "Federal Register final-rule issuance for the Revolutionary FAR Overhaul (Parts 1, 2, 4, 33, 39, 40, 53) and FY2026 DoD competition / one-offer reporting; GAO FY2026 bid protest annual report", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "capture-field-read", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-234", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-09-30", "p": 0.85, "confidence": "HIGH", "probability_source": "Confidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-2, HIGH. The 60-day clause for later hearings is kept on file separately because its window depends on hearing dates the brief does not fix. Resolves against the Assessor's notice mailings and local reporting.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-2 (restated in Section 01, PDF p.6: 'Every 2026 appeal heard before 1 September receives that notice in the mail by mid to late September; appeals heard after 1 September receive one within 60 days of the hearing date.')", "window_as_stated": "mid to late September (2026)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Trimmed lead-in 'The calendar is published and therefore plannable. Formal scheduling closed 26 June, hearings are calendared into August,' and citation marker 1. The brief attributes the schedule to the Assessor; the claim is that it holds.", "checkable": "Davidson County Assessor of Property (padctn.org) formal-appeals page and local reporting on notice mailings", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-236", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "KJ-6, MODERATE. 90 days from the 30 July 2026 issue date. Resolves against local reporting on turnover and closures versus any rate relief or fund disbursement in the window; voided if the record cannot separate the two.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.4, KJ-6", "window_as_stated": "60 to 90 days", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Trimmed the supporting sentences and citation markers 10,11,12. Markdown phrasing is 'Over the next 60 to 90 days the fastest-moving adjustment channel'; PDF wording quoted. 90 days counted from the 2026-07-30 issue date.", "checkable": "Nashville local reporting (WSMV, FOX 17, Nashville Banner) on business closures and lease turnover versus any legacy-fund disbursements or rate action by 2026-10-28", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-244", "brief": "september-letter", "desk": "markets", "statement": "Baseline is the most probable path.", "made_on": "2026-07-30", "resolves_by": "2026-10-28", "p": 0.65, "confidence": "MODERATE", "probability_source": "Confidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)", "locked_on": "2026-09-08", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves by the Baseline conditions: notices land as published, forks fall in late October and November, relief criteria publish late.", "source": { "location": "PDF p.13, Section 06 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)", "window_as_stated": "Sixty to Ninety Days (the outlook horizon the assessment ranks)", "scenario_construction_confidence": false, "extractor_note": "Section assessment, not a scenario construction confidence. Resolves by checking whether the Baseline conditions (notices land as published, forks in late Oct/Nov, relief criteria late) held versus Deterioration or Relief.", "checkable": "Assessor notice mailings in mid to late September 2026; Board of Equalization agendas; State Board filing volume; timing of legacy fund criteria publication", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08" }, "record_class": "legacy-prospective", "claim_family": "september-letter", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-245", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "probability", "statement": "The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-09-18", "p": 0.25, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Locked as a judgment call. June 2026 hold was unanimous at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 with inflation called elevated. Resolution source: federalreserve.gov FOMC statement of record (implementation note), 2026-09-17.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-01", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "federalreserve.gov FOMC statement of record (implementation note), 2026-09-17." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "forward-benchmark", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-246", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "supply-chain", "kind": "probability", "statement": "The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.15, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Judgment call, conditioned on the US-Iran agreement item. Strait closed about 130 days at lock; strikes resumed 2026-07-08. Resolution source: UKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-02", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "UKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record." }, "series": [ "strait-of-hormuz" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "forward-benchmark", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-247", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "political-risk", "kind": "probability", "statement": "A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-01", "p": 0.25, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Anchored to the firm's reference class for escalating adversarial bargaining (episode-level settlement rate 0.67, credible interval 0.53 to 0.81), with an explicit 83-day window adjustment from a collapsed-talks starting state. Resolution source: whitehouse.gov and state.gov statements; AP or Reuters wire of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-03", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "whitehouse.gov and state.gov statements; AP or Reuters wire of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "forward-benchmark", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-248", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "defense", "kind": "probability", "statement": "No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-15", "p": 0.96, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Anchored to the firm's reference class for two-party standoffs with a credible mutual threat (episode-level holds rate 0.59), converted to a 98-day window against historical quarterly initiation rates. Resolution source: DoD and INDOPACOM statements and USNI News; AP wire of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-04", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "DoD and INDOPACOM statements and USNI News; AP wire of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "forward-benchmark", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-249", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "range", "statement": "EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-06", "p": null, "range": { "lo": 62.0, "central": 80.0, "hi": 105.0, "unit": "USD/bbl" }, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Quantity item, scored by interval coverage rather than the Brier rule. Brent was 78.55 dollars on 2026-07-08 with the Hormuz closure ongoing; the band is wide because the distribution was bimodal at lock. Resolution source: eia.gov, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily (RBRTE).", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-05", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "eia.gov, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily (RBRTE)." }, "series": [ "brent" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "forward-benchmark", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-250", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "markets", "kind": "range", "statement": "US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-10-16", "p": null, "range": { "lo": 3.0, "central": 3.9, "hi": 5.0, "unit": "percent YoY" }, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Quantity item, scored by interval coverage. May 2026 headline was 4.2 percent with the oil shock in the headline; the central case assumes partial retracement holds. Resolution source: bls.gov CPI news release for September 2026.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-06", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "bls.gov CPI news release for September 2026." }, "series": [ "cpi" ], "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "forward-benchmark", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-251", "brief": "forward-benchmark", "desk": "political-risk", "kind": "probability", "statement": "Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).", "made_on": "2026-07-09", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "p": 0.6, "range": null, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Locked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)", "locked_on": "2026-07-09", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Locked at LOW confidence by design; 2026-specific polling was not reviewed at lock, stated plainly. The point of the forward benchmark is to be scored, not to be safe. Resolution source: apnews.com House race calls of record.", "source": { "location": "Forward Benchmark Charter, tranche 1, locked 2026-07-09", "key": "fwd-07", "extracted_on": "2026-09-08", "checkable": "apnews.com House race calls of record." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "forward-benchmark", "learning_role": "holdout" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-252", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.08, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C1", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "Cloture on the motion to proceed to S. 4784 already failed 50 to 46 on 14 July 2026 and no re-filed motion is on the record. The Senate's published 2026 calendar puts it in session only from 14 September to 2 October before a state work period running 5 October to 6 November, so the entire opportunity is eighteen weekday session days in which twelve unfinished appropriations bills also compete for floor time. The firm locks this expecting NO and publishes it either way; the calendar, not the politics, is the binding constraint. Resolution rule: YES if a roll call vote on a motion to invoke cloture on any NDAA vehicle (S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended, or a successor) appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. A voice vote, a unanimous consent agreement, or a filed but unvoted cloture motion does not count. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C1", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm (roll call votes of the 119th Congress, 2nd session)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a roll call vote on a motion to invoke cloture on any NDAA vehicle (S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended, or a successor) appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. A voice vote, a unanimous consent agreement, or a filed but unvoted cloture motion does not count. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rearmament-ledger", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-253", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-09", "p": 0.1, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C2", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The 30 calendar day review period under 22 U.S.C. 2776(b)(1) runs from the 4 September transmittals and closes about 4 October 2026; Saudi Arabia is not among the partners eligible for the 15 day period under 2776(b)(2). The Senate leaves for a state work period on 2 October, two days before the review closes, so a privileged resolution would have to be discharged and voted inside the September session weeks. The firm locks this expecting NO. Resolution rule: YES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C2", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-09", "resolution_source": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm and https://www.congress.gov (joint resolutions of disapproval under 22 U.S.C. 2776)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a roll call vote on passage of, or on a procedural motion relating to, a joint resolution of disapproval naming either transmittal appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. Introduction of such a resolution without a recorded vote does not count. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rearmament-ledger", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-254", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-10-05", "p": 0.5, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C3", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The 27 September 2024 United States and Iraq joint statement provides for coalition operations from an Iraqi platform continuing until September 2026, and Iraqi officials describe 30 September 2026 as the fixed and final date. No CENTCOM release between early August and 8 September 2026 mentions the withdrawal. The claim tests whether the American side marks the date publicly at all, which is the point on which the report's Erbil section rests, since the removal of Patriot and counter rocket, artillery and mortar cover is currently a press only claim. Resolution rule: YES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C3", "window_as_stated": "2026-10-05", "resolution_source": "https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/ and https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rearmament-ledger", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-255", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "p": 0.4, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C4", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The Missile Defense Agency stated on making the first SHIELD tranche of 1,014 awardees in December 2025 that it would not begin awarding task orders until all awardees were finalised, and no task order has been located since. The twelve space based interceptor vendors completed Gate One in August 2026 and were said to move to prototype build under Gate Two, which normally requires new obligation. Against that, the fiscal year 2027 Golden Dome request is roughly 97 percent inside the reconciliation package and the continuing resolution carries no Golden Dome anomaly, so the question is whether prior year balances carry any new award at all. Resolution rule: YES if a daily contract announcement dated between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive names a Golden Dome, space based interceptor or SHIELD award or task order. A modification to an existing agreement counts only if the announcement identifies it as a new task order. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C4", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-16", "resolution_source": "https://www.war.gov/News/Contracts/ daily contract announcements", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a daily contract announcement dated between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive names a Golden Dome, space based interceptor or SHIELD award or task order. A modification to an existing agreement counts only if the announcement identifies it as a new task order. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rearmament-ledger", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-256", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-31", "p": 0.1, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C5", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This is the claim that falsifies the report's thesis, and the firm states the bar's weakness alongside it: both chambers' budget resolutions carry $60 billion for defence against the $350 billion requested, so a measure at the resolution level clears $50 billion while funding barely a sixth of the ask. The mechanical bar is sequencing rather than appetite. No concurrent budget resolution has been adopted, so no reconciliation instructions exist and no privileged bill can move; the Senate has seventeen weekday session days between the 3 November election and the 11 December continuing resolution expiry, and CSIS reports Republicans planning a further reconciliation vehicle for after the midterms. Resolution rule: YES if a measure signed into law on or before 31 December 2026 was considered under reconciliation procedures and provides at least $50,000,000,000 in new budget authority to the Department of Defense as stated in the enrolled text or in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for that measure. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C5", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "https://www.congress.gov and https://www.govinfo.gov (public laws of the 119th Congress)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if a measure signed into law on or before 31 December 2026 was considered under reconciliation procedures and provides at least $50,000,000,000 in new budget authority to the Department of Defense as stated in the enrolled text or in the Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for that measure. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rearmament-ledger", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-257", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "p": 0.6, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C6", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "This replaces the planning slate's Product Service Code 13xx threshold of $25 billion, which was unreachable on the series: full year 13xx obligations were $11.11 billion in fiscal 2024 and $10.83 billion in fiscal 2025. The 14xx series measures the war's actual procurement response. Fiscal 2026 obligations from October through June stood at $28.81 billion against $15.10 billion in the same period of fiscal 2025, and September alone carried 42 percent and 25 percent of the annual total in the two preceding years, so the threshold sits above a straight extrapolation and below an unchanged September share. Data is published with roughly a 90 day lag, which the 15 December read date accommodates. Resolution rule: YES if the sum of Department of Defense contract obligations for fiscal year 2026 under all Product Service Codes beginning 14 exceeds $38,000,000,000 when queried on 15 December 2026. The query is the same one the firm ran on 9 September 2026 and is recorded in chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_obligations.csv. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C6", "window_as_stated": "2026-12-15", "resolution_source": "https://api.usaspending.gov (spending by category, Product Service Code, awarding agency Department of Defense, contract award types A through D, fiscal year 2026)", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if the sum of Department of Defense contract obligations for fiscal year 2026 under all Product Service Codes beginning 14 exceeds $38,000,000,000 when queried on 15 December 2026. The query is the same one the firm ran on 9 September 2026 and is recorded in chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_obligations.csv. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rearmament-ledger", "learning_role": "operational" }, { "id": "CLM-2026-258", "brief": "rearmament-ledger", "desk": "defense", "statement": "The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.", "made_on": "2026-09-10", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "p": 0.18, "confidence": null, "probability_source": "Explicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C7", "locked_on": "2026-09-10", "status": "locked", "resolution": null, "resolved_on": null, "evidence": null, "notes": "The threshold is the planning slate's and is retained at the principal's direction; the probability carries the firm's own analysis, which points the other way. The annual base rate is high, at 103 approvals worth EUR 82.98 billion in calendar 2025 and 44 by 8 July 2026, but the 2026 count has not moved since 8 July and the Bundesministerium der Verteidigung's own planning document schedules only eight proposals inside this window. That plan has been wrong in both directions, having scheduled three for the 8 July sitting that approved sixteen and twelve for a February sitting that approved two. No Bundestag page publishes a running count, which is why the resolution rule names the ministry's press stream and states a tolerance. The firm expects this to resolve NO and publishes it because a scorecard that only carries comfortable claims is not a scorecard. Resolution rule: YES if the count of individual proposals reported as approved by the Haushaltsausschuss in BMVg press releases dated between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive is 20 or more, with a tolerance of plus or minus two proposals where the BMVg release and contemporaneous trade reporting disagree on a single sitting. Where the BMVg release states a count, that count governs. NO otherwise.", "source": { "location": "AIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C7", "window_as_stated": "2026-11-07", "resolution_source": "Bundesministerium der Verteidigung press releases indexed from https://www.bmvg.de/de/beschaffung-25-millionen-euro-vorlagen", "extracted_on": "2026-09-10", "checkable": "YES if the count of individual proposals reported as approved by the Haushaltsausschuss in BMVg press releases dated between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive is 20 or more, with a tolerance of plus or minus two proposals where the BMVg release and contemporaneous trade reporting disagree on a single sitting. Where the BMVg release states a count, that count governs. NO otherwise." }, "record_class": "brier-native", "claim_family": "rearmament-ledger", "learning_role": "operational" } ] }